Brussels 2000m start lists out! Can Jakob break the world record??

I would love to see him dedicating to 5k and 10k trying to break those WRs. He would have some chance for those. Objectively 1500m, mile and 2000m WRs are out of anyone lick. The man who can beat those El G records is not born yet. But i do believe Jakob has the skills to sign himself as the best 5k-10k runner ever. Probabily even 3k. But he has to move to those distances NOW. If he continues spending years and efforts in pursuing 1500m-mile WRs he will fail and he will also lose his chances in the 5k-10k.

I don’t fully agree, because I think he was in 3.26.5 shape in the Worlds semifinal, (far better shape there than in Silesia -3.27.14), and from there it’s not all that far to the WR.

If Jakob is in his 2 mile WB shape he will go sub 4:44.

And if Nordaas has recovered from his fatique he will be no. 2 . He has been running well in the 3000m before (In the 2021 European Champs he finished just after Katir after a fast last lap). I find it difficult to predict his time.

I hope McSweyn will come close to his best.

The overwhelming majority of this board didn't think Jakob would get the 2 mile record. He smashed it. This board leans against Jakob getting the 2k record. He'll get it.

I’ve been seeing people use “objectively” to describe their opinions a lot recently. At this point it’s certainly your subjective opinion that those records are beyond Ingebrigtsen’s potential. I for one think he’s been in 4:44.78 2k shape already this season, even though I just predicted he would miss the mark by a few tenths tomorrow.

Also its silly to declare that the man who can break those records hasn’t been born yet, since you have no idea if the “Usain Bolt of mid-distance” is pissing his pants in a kindergarten classroom right now.

Both records’ difficulty was/is inflated by a dearth of serious attempts at the distance, but I’m confident that 4:44.79 is better than 7:58.61. I do believe he can break the record if he’s still in top form, but it’s also contingent on him running with great confidence and ambition, which might be slightly lagging right now, we’ll see.

Thi$$ will guide him.

Looks like a fair prediction. I do wonder how Reynold will run this and also how tired he may be even if that winning run on Monday was pretty easy for him (His last 100 was close to 13-flat). His coach/manager have to be in his head about qualifying for the DL Final you'd think. A top 4 finish probably does it for him So I'm not sure he'd go for as an aggressive run as you have here. I could see Jakob having a gap of 3-4 seconds at the bell with Kipsang, McSweyn and Garcia leading the chasers. Then that might be where Nordas and Cheruiyot launch their kicks to finish 2-3 as you have it.

I do see Jakob between 4:43 and 4:46.5. I understand people's skepticism, but it sounds a lot like people who didn't think Jakob would break 8 in the 2 mile. The guys runs 56-57 laps very comfortably...he is not going to suddenly have a massive problems because we're tacking on an extra 500.

He could have run that time in the Impossible Games 2000m in 2020!

So why didn´t he do then?

BECAUSE IT WAS A TEAM RACE NOT A PB RACE FOR JAKOB. THE OLDER BROTHERS HAD PROHIBITED HIM FROM GOING ALL IN BEFORE THE LAST LAP (WHICH HE RAN IN 54).

4:43.5 incoming!

Does Laros have any mathematical chance to qualify for DL final?

I know I’m insane for this but here’s what I’d mapped out for the first 1600:

400
Mounir Akbache 57.21
Cornelius Tuwei 57.39
Boaz Kiprugut 57.48
Jakob Ingebrigtsen 57.64
Abel Kipsang 57.73
Niels Laros 57.85
Reynold Cheruiyot 57.98
Stewart McSweyn 58.16
Elliot Giles 58.36
Ruben Verheyden 58.44
Mario Garcia 58.50
Jochem Vermeulen 58.61
Charles Philibert-Thiboutot 58.79
Ismael Debjani 58.91
Narve Nordas 59.01

800
Mounir Akbache 1:54.87 (57.66)
Cornelius Tuwei 1:54.98 (57.59)
Boaz Kiprugut 1:55.13 (57.65)
Jakob Ingebrigtsen 1:55.29 (57.65)
Abel Kipsang 1:55.46 (57.73)
Reynold Cheruiyot 1:55.63 (57.65)
Stewart McSweyn 1:55.71 (57.55)
Niels Laros 1:55.89 (58.04)
Ruben Verheyden 1:56.07 (57.63)
Elliot Giles 1:56.23 (57.87)
Jochem Vermeulen 1:56.43 (57.82)
Mario Garcia 1:56.44 (57.94)
Charles Philibert-Thiboutot 1:56.68 (57.89)
Ismael Debjani 1:56.87 (57.96)
Narve Nordas 1:57.02 (58.01)

1200
Boaz Kiprugut 2:52.36 (57.23)
Jakob Ingebrigtsen 2:52.53 (57.24)
Abel Kipsang 2:52.74 (57.28)
Reynold Cheruiyot 2:52.87 (57.24)
Stewart McSweyn 2:52.92 (57.21)
Mario Garcia 2:54.28 (57.84)
Niels Laros 2:54.48 (58.59)
Ruben Verheyden 2:54.65 (58.58)
Narve Nordas 2:54.73 (57.71)
Elliot Giles 2:54.90 (58.67)
Jochem Vermeulen 2:55.16 (58.73)
Charles Philibert-Thiboutot 2:55.25 (58.57)
Ismael Debjani 2:55.44 (58.57)

1600
Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:50.02 (57.49)
Reynold Cheruiyot 3:51.39 (58.52)
Stewart McSweyn 3:52.06 (59.14)
Abel Kipsang 3:52.43 (59.69)
Mario Garcia 3:53.37 (59.09)
Narve Nordas 3:53.48 (58.75)
Niels Laros 3:53.81 (59.33)
Elliot Giles 3:54.20 (59.30)
Ruben Verheyden 3:54.39 (59.74)
Charles Philibert-Thiboutot 3:54.54 (59.29)
Ismael Debjani 3:54.75 (59.31)
Jochem Vermeulen 3:55.28 (60.12)

So I just had Cheruiyot keying off Kipsang and very much in the pack through the opening stages, and then surviving the pace better than Kipsang or McSweyn; meanwhile Nordas starts slowly in last place before making his way up to 3rd. I’ll be a little surprised if at least a couple guys don’t go with Jakob for the first K or more (with Jakob’s typical approach, the first 800 will feel very manageable for 3:29-3:31 guys) and that sort of pulls the whole field to maintain contact. Whether it becomes strung out like I have it above or a tighter group forms trailing Jakob by a few seconds at the bell remains to be seen.

Of course the race dynamics will probably look much different than this. I’ve just always enjoyed making up these imaginary race splits since I was a little kid, strange as it is.

Utter nonsense. He will be dominant in the 3k-5k in the years to come, there's no need to rush there. If anything he will get even better at those distances with time. But the time to get the 1500-2000 records is very limited for him, which is precisely why he's targeting these races.

Yes. Minus some scratches from the healthy top 5, he'd need at least a 3rd place finish and a good deal of luck e.g. a couple bombs from Cheruiyot, McSweyn, Garcia and Nordas. 2nd place finish would be less luck required as he'd jump over Gourley and potentially get into a tie with Giles who might not go top 8 here.

Let's play it out if finished like this with Laros running his best-ever race:

1. Jakob
2. Laros (+7)
3. Kipsang
4. Nordas (+5)
5. Cheruiyot (+4)
6. McSweyn (+3)
7. Garcia (+2)
8. Tanner (+1)

That would lead to the following:
Laros --> 10
Nordas -->13
Cheruiyot -->11
McSweyn -->10
Garcia --> 9
Tanner --> 9

Laros would then be in a 3-way tie for 8th with McSweyn and Giles and get in. With so many guys (Cheruiyot, Nordas, McSweyn, Giles, Tanner, Garcia) with 7-10 points in this race, he really needs to get to 10 points. You see the problems if he gets to 9 points only.

Yeah you have to laugh at "objectively" - that would imply some rationale/reasoning but not sure in this case there was any (very typical of this opinion board)

I wrote this earlier - when El G broke this record in 99 he ran 3.27.65 and 7.23.09 that season for 1500m and 3000m respectively. He also ran 3.43.13 for the mile which at his level was probably the equivalent of a 3.26 mid to high clocking. However it was pretty clear when you look at the breakdown of races he ran that season what he was focussing on. He only ran 3 1500m races outside of the world champs, and two of them were early season in Milan and Nuremberg before the middle of June (he ran only one other "elite" one-day 1500 that year in Zurich). That season for him was about building his strength and hence he attacked the mile, 2000 and 3000m records. So he took on the 2000m clearly in a season where he was working on his strength and endurance - the one element of both athletes physical makeups that Jakob has the clear edge over him.

Jakob this season has run 3.27.14 and the last 3000m of a 2 mile in 7.21.5. When you compare this with (let's be generous and credit Hicham with a time he never even ran) 3.26.7 and 7.23.09, there is no way one can "objectively" say that he has no chance at that record, unless you are clueless about the sport and middle distance events.

To me, 3.27.1 and 7.21.5 combine more favorably for a 2000m tilt than 3.26.7 and 7.23.1. The extra strength component of the 3000 is more important than the speed component of the 1500. Now that being said, El G ran his 2000m only 4 days after his 3000m so the form was "current" which as you correctly pointed out we can't say the same with Jakob. Had he attempted this in that mid June period when he had his 2 mile shape and was on his way to 3.27.1 (already had broken 3.28 in Oslo too) then with the benefit of perfectly even pacing, to say he wouldn't have "a lick" of breaking it, is simply ridiculous.

Jakob can break this - it's not ability dependent it's health dependent. If passing on Zurich was just topping up the tank physically and mentally then I see no reason why he couldn't do this.

not born yet? i really just disagree. ignoring the fact that there are a number of talented juniors right now who’s progression is impossible to predict, Laros seems to be shaping up to be a real talent. i don’t like predicting careers but i wouldn’t be shocked if he ran 3:28 next years

348 plus 56

444

going to be close

It is. Others have guessed splits in my mind I could picture something to the effect of:

57.3, 57.1, 57.2, 57.1 which gets him to 1600m in 3.48.7 and then he has the strength to close in 55.5 - that's 4.44.2/.3

Of interest these were his splits from his current PR set in 2020

58.8,

2.28.0 (1000m - no 800m split as the camera cut away but we could guess it was probably 1.58.4ish)

2.57.3 (58.9)

3.55.8 (58.5)

4.50.04 (54.2)

That season he ran 3.30.69 and 7.27.05.

He ran 3:28.68 that season (and his 2k time was 4:50.01).