Karsten says he can be competitive with Jakob in the 800m in this interview recently.

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

There’s some good logic in most of what you are saying here… -I was just curious how much you based your predictions on his new 100m estimate vs his 2017 pb, but I agree that there seems to be a linar progression throughout all his events that doesn’t predict a stellar 800m… (You are however a little fluffy in your “wasn’t really better in the 200 than in the 100..” because 20.91 indoors is significantly better than 10.49. Saying that I don’t think at all this one finding is a trait of consistency or importance)..

I think it’s extraordinary hard to predict Warholm’s 800m capacity because we’ve got far too little hard facts (times, detailed training information), yes even when it comes to the comparison with other athletes (they too without pr’s in key events). And too much information / and rumours about Karsten goes in all directions…. So your sort of middle way estimates are understandable… But here is some thoughts to narrow it down from my perspective:

1. Why I think Warholm isn’t an Alberto Juantorena./ Harald Schmid contender: He seems to run his one lap all out more on 100m speed than on the strength the two former possessed, due to his speed advantages. Therefore it’s likely he will lose relatively (much) to these two in the longer run… His 1000m pr -2.45.9- seems to confirm this…

2. His 2.45 was his eighth event in a championship as a seventeen years old, and is somewhat hard to process..-One could give him at least a 45 sec cut to estimate his 800m time: 2 flat. And from there cut 6-7 sec due to tired legs from the other events. That gives 1.53. And who knows; he was 17 at the time, and can be much better now…(Threshold training / age). Or one could be a little nasty and make a comparison with Ashton Eaton; pb’s 2.32 and 1.55 -that aligns to a 2.08 in the 800m for Karsten…

3. Compared with Rai Benjamin: Warholm himself recently said he hoped he could run sub 10.30 in the 100m. But this is significantly slower than Rai’s 10.03 / 19.99. One must therefore suppose Rai as the faster… So what about 400m flat: I think both can run 44 flat, or even dip under -Rai’s pb is from early april (not peak form) and we know Karsten’s pb isn’t representative (has to be significantly more room between his 400m potential and his 400mh pr than 1.07 sec!). My guesses is the same flat current 400m time for both, and that Warholm’s wins in the 400mh have been because of slightly better hurdle technique…But I don’t know….
So who’s the best in the 600m: This goes to Karsten because with a identical 400m time, and Rai having better speed, Karsten’s endurance must be (slightly) better. And I have stipulated Rai’s current 600m to sub 1.18 from his 1.22 as 16 years old.. But again: We do not know…. Rumour has it that Warholm has run 1.15 in training, but since the messengers of this rumour won’t confirm it with any details whatsoever I guess it’s false. But who knows…

4. Karsten looks like a spinter that goes all out in his 400m(h)s, and tries to hold, but with Rai always coming on him on the homestretch. But with Rai being the best short sprinter this doesn’t exclude Warholm from being more of a strength runner than seemingly… And the latter also seems to have this “thing” of slowing a little 100-60m before the finish line, so the lactate doesn’t overwhelm him, and he got renewed strength… -Maybe this says something about a 800m strength as well…

5. Imagine a race against Jakob paced to 1.46.5 -400m split 52.5, 600m 1.19.5 -if Karsten’s 600m ceiling is just sub 1.18 he will be too close to being cooked, and won’t stand a chance against Jakob. He will maybe then do 1.50, with Jakob well ahead. But if we’re talking 1.15 ceiling then Jakob should struggle, even if he’s now a 1.45 man…!

6. I agree in what you say about not taking Karsten too much on his words. (For instance his first sayings about world class 800m was based on “some good 600m’s I did in my childhood” - but there is no such 600m recordings to be found, but a number of mediocre ones). And I think you are right in your theory about (over) confidence and just lashing something out.. But I also think he believes in his own words, and one have to think he may have tried out a little in training, f.ex a fast 600m, or a 90% effort in that distance to try to estimate the road further to a 800m…

7. Both Karsten and Jakob are cautious and very sensible about evaluating own nearby capacity in their main events. But something happens when they are allowed to go beyond the nearest of challenge -they lashes out (seemingly without any base In experience or logic or facts). And that makes them interesting - because bragging about (baseless) capacity they don’t have experience to know is true says something about guts, and dream, and maybe will to a future trying. And they may even be right! (Karsten about his 800m skills, low 43 sec 400m future capacity, Jakob about his 10k, half and full marathon)…

8. Karsten Warholm is sort of an enigma (as many athletes are) -he has obviously lowered his speed (100m) dramatically even from his early twenties, and maybe even his strength.. And his training is so huge and complex and original (gives me Jakob vibes) that who knows what he can train out..). And most of all: The human field (including sports) is so complex and unpredictable that we just don’t know what to expect before somebody has done it (and sometimes even not then) -why can’t Fred Kerley just break the 400m WR when he’s so much faster in the 100m, and why couldn’t Bolt (as a former 400m runner) just glide to 400m WR on his 200m capacity, and why couldn’t Wyde hold to a 800m WR being 2 sec faster than Rudisha in the 400m…? And why so lousy 400m pb for Brandon Johnson despite good pr in the 100m and 800m.. And Andreas Almgren -long time good 400 / 800m, but now he is really excelling in the 1500m / 5000m without the signs of being a former 400 / 800 guy…

Well, it would be fun to see Karsten Warholm in a 800m. But I would rather prefer him living up to his most stellar dreams about a fast flat 400m / new WR 400mh…

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

Impala31 wrote:

Warholm wasn't really better in the 200 than in the 100. 10.50 and 21.0 are about equal.
Also, his 100/200/400 PR have improved in a linear way rather simultaneously. As mainly a 400/400h, he has always been better in the 400 than in the 100/200 but not by a huge margin. 10.5/21.0/46.1 isn't like 10.5/20.7/44.5 and that's still not a indication for a great 800, just a normal pure 400 runner (like Borlee, Djhone etc). For sure he is not a Kerley type of sprinter but that still looked more like a speed guy than a strengh guy to me. Also the 2:45 1000m tells something. If he had a great 800 ability, I think you would see something suprising there for a multi event athlete like 2:30-35. I also take visual impression into account. Based on his stride, he seems powerfull and a sprinter rather than a smooth strengh guy.

All this considered, I would have probably said that he wasn't a potential fast 800 runner back then and gave him something like a 1:51-55 ability.

It's true that his training seems to be a good point for a good 800 and that's why I can see him run maybe 1:48. But that's the only pro compared to all the cons. I don't give a lot of credit to what he says he is able of in the 800 as he has never raced the distance, and I feel like he is overconfident (common among sprinters) or half joking there.

There’s some good logic in most of what you are saying here… -I was just curious how much you based your predictions on his new 100m estimate vs his 2017 pb, but I agree that there seems to be a linar progression throughout all his events that doesn’t predict a stellar 800m… (You are however a little fluffy in your “wasn’t really better in the 200 than in the 100..” because 20.91 indoors is significantly better than 10.49. Saying that I don’t think at all this one finding is a trait of consistency or importance)..

I think it’s extraordinary hard to predict Warholm’s 800m capacity because we’ve got far too little hard facts (times, detailed training information), yes even when it comes to the comparison with other athletes (they too without pr’s in key events). And too much information / and rumours about Karsten goes in all directions…. So your sort of middle way estimates are understandable… But here is some thoughts to narrow it down from my perspective:

1. Why I think Warholm isn’t an Alberto Juantorena./ Harald Schmid contender: He seems to run his one lap all out more on 100m speed than on the strength the two former possessed, due to his speed advantages. Therefore it’s likely he will lose relatively (much) to these two in the longer run… His 1000m pr -2.45.9- seems to confirm this…

2. His 2.45 was his eighth event in a championship as a seventeen years old, and is somewhat hard to process..-One could give him at least a 45 sec cut to estimate his 800m time: 2 flat. And from there cut 6-7 sec due to tired legs from the other events. That gives 1.53. And who knows; he was 17 at the time, and can be much better now…(Threshold training / age). Or one could be a little nasty and make a comparison with Ashton Eaton; pb’s 2.32 and 1.55 -that aligns to a 2.08 in the 800m for Karsten…

3. Compared with Rai Benjamin: Warholm himself recently said he hoped he could run sub 10.30 in the 100m. But this is significantly slower than Rai’s 10.03 / 19.99. One must therefore suppose Rai as the faster… So what about 400m flat: I think both can run 44 flat, or even dip under -Rai’s pb is from early april (not peak form) and we know Karsten’s pb isn’t representative (has to be significantly more room between his 400m potential and his 400mh pr than 1.07 sec!). My guesses is the same flat current 400m time for both, and that Warholm’s wins in the 400mh have been because of slightly better hurdle technique…But I don’t know….
So who’s the best in the 600m: This goes to Karsten because with a identical 400m time, and Rai having better speed, Karsten’s endurance must be (slightly) better. And I have stipulated Rai’s current 600m to sub 1.18 from his 1.22 as 16 years old.. But again: We do not know…. Rumour has it that Warholm has run 1.15 in training, but since the messengers of this rumour won’t confirm it with any details whatsoever I guess it’s false. But who knows…

4. Karsten looks like a spinter that goes all out in his 400m(h)s, and tries to hold, but with Rai always coming on him on the homestretch. But with Rai being the best short sprinter this doesn’t exclude Warholm from being more of a strength runner than seemingly… And the latter also seems to have this “thing” of slowing a little 100-60m before the finish line, so the lactate doesn’t overwhelm him, and he got renewed strength… -Maybe this says something about a 800m strength as well…

5. Imagine a race against Jakob paced to 1.46.5 -400m split 52.5, 600m 1.19.5 -if Karsten’s 600m ceiling is just sub 1.18 he will be too close to being cooked, and won’t stand a chance against Jakob. He will maybe then do 1.50, with Jakob well ahead. But if we’re talking 1.15 ceiling then Jakob should struggle, even if he’s now a 1.45 man…!

6. I agree in what you say about not taking Karsten too much on his words. (For instance his first sayings about world class 800m was based on “some good 600m’s I did in my childhood” - but there is no such 600m recordings to be found, but a number of mediocre ones). And I think you are right in your theory about (over) confidence and just lashing something out.. But I also think he believes in his own words, and one have to think he may have tried out a little in training, f.ex a fast 600m, or a 90% effort in that distance to try to estimate the road further to a 800m…

7. Both Karsten and Jakob are cautious and very sensible about evaluating own nearby capacity in their main events. But something happens when they are allowed to go beyond the nearest of challenge -they lashes out (seemingly without any base In experience or logic or facts). And that makes them interesting - because bragging about (baseless) capacity they don’t have experience to know is true says something about guts, and dream, and maybe will to a future trying. And they may even be right! (Karsten about his 800m skills, low 43 sec 400m future capacity, Jakob about his 10k, half and full marathon)…

8. Karsten Warholm is sort of an enigma (as many athletes are) -he has obviously lowered his speed (100m) dramatically even from his early twenties, and maybe even his strength.. And his training is so huge and complex and original (gives me Jakob vibes) that who knows what he can train out..). And most of all: The human field (including sports) is so complex and unpredictable that we just don’t know what to expect before somebody has done it (and sometimes even not then) -why can’t Fred Kerley just break the 400m WR when he’s so much faster in the 100m, and why couldn’t Bolt (as a former 400m runner) just glide to 400m WR on his 200m capacity, and why couldn’t Wyde hold to a 800m WR being 2 sec faster than Rudisha in the 400m…? And why so lousy 400m pb for Brandon Johnson despite good pr in the 100m and 800m.. And Andreas Almgren -long time good 400 / 800m, but now he is really excelling in the 1500m / 5000m without the signs of being a former 400 / 800 guy…

Well, it would be fun to see Karsten Warholm in a 800m. But I would rather prefer him living up to his most stellar dreams about a fast flat 400m / new WR 400mh…