El G has five runs faster than Morceli's prior WR. Five. One and a half seconds is huge at that level -- there is about as big a gap between El G and Morceli as there is between Morceli and Josh Kerr, for example.
To me that runs counter to your contention that Seb Coe would win. Coe was 2.6 seconds slower than Morceli, greater than the 1.37 seconds between Morceli and El Guerrouj. Of course, Coe could have run faster in 1981 than his 3:29.77 lifetime best or his PB when he won both golds, only 3:31.95–but he ran in the context of the competition and expectations of his time. If prime Morceli had raced El Guerrouj or been chasing a 3:26 WR, he would have run 3:26.xx. Probably capable of low 7:20s for 3k too, but he smashed the WR by 3.85 seconds and that was good enough for him. I’m not saying he could have run 3:26.00, but I think he’s close enough in fitness to capitalize on his superior finishing speed in a race where El G or Jakob have to act as the de facto pacers.
I suspect Coe was most likely a 3:28 guy, maybe even 3:27-high on his best day, though at that point you’d expect him to have gone out and run faster than 3:31.95 before 1986. But 3:27-high is still slower than 4 of the guys in the race (and slower than 3:43.40 Ngeny was capable of), and Coe never had the experience of running in a race where anyone else broke 3:32 (!), which has to work against him here.
Of course the key fundamental difference between our predictions is I think it would be fast, while you think Jakob would run 2:01 through 800. Which returns me to my other criticism: Jakob and others aren’t falling off the lead group in the 3rd lap of 53.8 after a 2:01 first 800. 2:01 is close to his 5k pace, and his 1500 pace is 55.2/lap. And let me remind you that Rui Silva split 1:46.3 for the last 800 in Athens. Nobody would lose contact with the man in front of them during your 3rd lap; most would be able to further accelerate in the last 300 and a few would just be able to maintain 40.xx for the last 300, but nobody’s getting dropped that easily.
Fair enough, you are probably right on the 3rd lap. Although I am not sure Jakob could match that Rui Silva finish, for instance.
The reason I picked Coe is that I assume the race will be slow and in a race slower than 3:30, I think he wins. In a race faster than that, one of El G or Morceli, but I would go with El G. I just think he was significantly better.
It's hard for me to imagine any of these savvy racers thinking that they can outrun El G and Morceli from the front, which is why I think nobody would be willing to push it until El G makes his move. I don't think El G makes his move immediately because of history -- he liked to lead the last 700 or so, not the whole race.
Man, Jakob is just nowhere near El G and Morceli (or maybe even Ngeny) yet. He may well get there in the next year or two, but I just don't see how he would be part of the El G Morceli dual.
Correct.
Someone has to help me with this; We write endlessly on here about the super shoes, but for this conversation it has barely been mentioned.
Jakob, with super shoes, is slower than El G in waffle racers.
With super shoes, if all the research and anecdotal evidence is correct, El G is 3:24 or so in his prime.
Jakob can't touch that, and he HAS the shoes, and the lights, and the pacers, and the best tracks, etc. He hasn't even touched 3:26.
There is no solid argument that puts Jakob in a race with El G, if both get the same shoes.
With the shoes, and based on their best times, you have to put El G about 3 seconds faster than Jakob.
The shoes don't add two or more seconds over the 1500. That's huge at that distance and at that speed. Nothing has scientifically confirmed that. It's probably only a fraction of a second at the most.
Two seconds or so would be like taking EPO or something similarly powerful. The shoes would be banned.
If these guys ran six 1500 races, one each month for six months, would the same guy win all six?
No, I don't think so.
If you could simulate like 100 races, my guess is you have a combination of El G, Morceli, Coe winning the majority and a scattering after that.
Maybe El G 25%, Coe 25%, Morceli 15%, Ngeny 10%, the remaining 25% reserved for a combo of Kiprop not running like an idiot, Mahk daddy coming through on the inside in the final 100, Jakob having the run of his life, etc.
Someone has to help me with this; We write endlessly on here about the super shoes, but for this conversation it has barely been mentioned.
Jakob, with super shoes, is slower than El G in waffle racers.
With super shoes, if all the research and anecdotal evidence is correct, El G is 3:24 or so in his prime.
Jakob can't touch that, and he HAS the shoes, and the lights, and the pacers, and the best tracks, etc. He hasn't even touched 3:26.
There is no solid argument that puts Jakob in a race with El G, if both get the same shoes.
With the shoes, and based on their best times, you have to put El G about 3 seconds faster than Jakob.
The shoes don't add two or more seconds over the 1500. That's huge at that distance and at that speed. Nothing has scientifically confirmed that. It's probably only a fraction of a second at the most.
Two seconds or so would be like taking EPO or something similarly powerful. The shoes would be banned.
Except maybe they do? The boost in sub-4 times, the general consensus the road shoes are worth more than that per mile (maybe something like 4-5s/mile), Cheptegei @ 12:35 despite it being 70 degrees out, etc.
Someone has to help me with this; We write endlessly on here about the super shoes, but for this conversation it has barely been mentioned.
Jakob, with super shoes, is slower than El G in waffle racers.
With super shoes, if all the research and anecdotal evidence is correct, El G is 3:24 or so in his prime.
Jakob can't touch that, and he HAS the shoes, and the lights, and the pacers, and the best tracks, etc. He hasn't even touched 3:26.
There is no solid argument that puts Jakob in a race with El G, if both get the same shoes.
With the shoes, and based on their best times, you have to put El G about 3 seconds faster than Jakob.
The shoes don't add two or more seconds over the 1500. That's huge at that distance and at that speed. Nothing has scientifically confirmed that. It's probably only a fraction of a second at the most.
Two seconds or so would be like taking EPO or something similarly powerful. The shoes would be banned.
Better conditions, having 3000 $$ as salary by month and you have your super EPO.
Girma in the same condition as Jakob would have run 3:24 this year.
Do you know the situation in Ethiopia or you are only keeping your eyes on the testing flacons?
There's a reason Seb is the only one to have won two. If its a tactical affair, it would be almost impossible for them to outsprint a 1:41 800m guy. If its a sub 3:30 race, it would be a dog fight between Jakob, Morcelli and Hicham with Hicham most likely coming out on top if he didn't lead it from the gun.
Man, Jakob is just nowhere near El G and Morceli (or maybe even Ngeny) yet. He may well get there in the next year or two, but I just don't see how he would be part of the El G Morceli dual.
What are you talking about? He just ran 3:27.15, having blasted the 2 mile WR a month ago. No one is running away from him no matter the era, he is the aerobically strongest runner ever to specialize in the 1500m. The only thing that might separate him from Hicham and Morcelli is their ability to accelerate hard instead of only winding up like Jakob does, which is why I pick them over him.
Don't bring up the supershoes. They help for sure in the longer distances, but the 1500m and 800m WRs havent been threatened at all since the arrival of the super shoes.
The shoes don't add two or more seconds over the 1500. That's huge at that distance and at that speed. Nothing has scientifically confirmed that. It's probably only a fraction of a second at the most.
Two seconds or so would be like taking EPO or something similarly powerful. The shoes would be banned.
Better conditions, having 3000 $ as salary by month and you have your super EPO.
Girma in the same condition as Jakob would have run 3:24 this year.
Do you know the situation in Ethiopia or you are only keeping your eyes on the testing flacons?
So it's money not doping that makes people run faster? You probably have it round the wrong way. It's money that makes runners dope.
Man, Jakob is just nowhere near El G and Morceli (or maybe even Ngeny) yet. He may well get there in the next year or two, but I just don't see how he would be part of the El G Morceli dual.
What are you talking about? He just ran 3:27.15, having blasted the 2 mile WR a month ago. No one is running away from him no matter the era, he is the aerobically strongest runner ever to specialize in the 1500m. The only thing that might separate him from Hicham and Morcelli is their ability to accelerate hard instead of only winding up like Jakob does, which is why I pick them over him.
Don't bring up the supershoes. They help for sure in the longer distances, but the 1500m and 800m WRs havent been threatened at all since the arrival of the super shoes.
Lol at the last paragraph. “Explain yourself, but don’t bring up an absolutely enormous factor because no one has threatened EPO eta records!”
(same post shows that Jakob just blasted the 2mi WR)
the shoes are real, ignoring them makes no sense, and the absolutely monstrous increase in sub 4 miles at the HS, college and elite levels is not a coincidence. Jakob could not hang with prime El G yet but he is likely to get there in the next few years.
If these guys ran six 1500 races, one each month for six months, would the same guy win all six?
No, I don't think so.
If you could simulate like 100 races, my guess is you have a combination of El G, Morceli, Coe winning the majority and a scattering after that.
Maybe El G 25%, Coe 25%, Morceli 15%, Ngeny 10%, the remaining 25% reserved for a combo of Kiprop not running like an idiot, Mahk daddy coming through on the inside in the final 100, Jakob having the run of his life, etc.
Some years ago SPORTS ILLUSTRATED did a study of baseball hitters to determine the GOATs. I don't remember the results, which aren't important here, but the methodology was interesting TO ME. They compared players' stats versus those of their contemporaries, to see how much better the great batters were relative to others in their time. I'm sure a similar study could be done for Mile/1500 meter runners, although that would be beyond my capabilities - it would take a statistical master to figure that out. Billy Ball, anyone?
So it took 7 pages for me to get to someone thinking what I was: the tactics are hugely important.
Everyone is parsing and dissecting the minute split times of races from 1980 and up, which is amazing to read through, but there are a few key factors that have come up:
1 - modern races have become more "time trials" for a larger and larger % of the run. The start of rabbits was rudimentary in Coe/Ovett's time and has only increased over the years. How many distance races have we commented on that "runners have not learned how to race anymore", which often is true. Hell, we were saying it about Grant last year and his refusal to make any move other than hug the rail. Some of these guys simply don't know how to race as well as others.
If we're talking about a 12 very, very fast men in the same race with PR's in the 3 seconds or less range, then the tactics become more of a deciding factor than a 3:29 runner vs a 3:30 runner. How did El G lose to Ngeny in 2000? Poor tactics against another fast runner. Would El G have been able to go after Morceli without the trip? Possibly. How did Cacho win? Great kick, yes, but also perfectly timed. Ngeny's win was a fluke, as it was pointed out that he was 0-4 against El G the rest of the year.
2 - Most of these runners would never have been in a field of 12 champions. Hell, none of us have. This would certainly change things dramatically. I think you'd see some less confident runners make some odd choices in tactics mid-race. (Think Scott in 1984 - he was used to racing Coe and Cram and Abascal on the circuit, but his build up to the '84 games was a bit of a disaster and, lacking confidence, he moved to the front int he middle of the race, a tactic he NEVER used, and paid for it.) Those nerves, for lack of a better term, would likely make some of the contenders take themselves out of the race before the bell lap.
So who were better tacticians IMO? Coe, Cacho, El G, Jakob, and Centro. I admit I forget how good Kiprop was tactically, but I'm tempted to throw him in here. (El G developed one great tactic: run away from people in the last 700m, period. And it worked until it didn't one day in 2000.)
From that last list, I don't think that Centro has the physical tools to beat an El G or Morceli frankly. If the tactics are to put yourself in to a position to win with your best tools, I do see Jakob having to push the pace, in places, as his strength is his biggest asset. I also would love to see that strength against someone who could run a 1:41 800 speed like Coe, which is astonishing speed. (I've not looked up lifetime careers, but I can't think any of the others have a 800m PR sub-1:42. I don't recall even seeing El G run 800 but I can't imagine he wouldn't have been very, very quick in it.)
Do I know who would win? I don't really, but I'd love to watch that race. My best guess: El G, Kiprop and Coe are the most likely top 3, and I'm hedging on Morceli and Jakob in 4th and 5th. I think everyone else is just a little behind those 5.
And, since its Letsrun and this is a purely running discussion, flame away.
Man, Jakob is just nowhere near El G and Morceli (or maybe even Ngeny) yet. He may well get there in the next year or two, but I just don't see how he would be part of the El G Morceli dual.
What are you talking about? He just ran 3:27.15, having blasted the 2 mile WR a month ago. No one is running away from him no matter the era, he is the aerobically strongest runner ever to specialize in the 1500m. The only thing that might separate him from Hicham and Morcelli is their ability to accelerate hard instead of only winding up like Jakob does, which is why I pick them over him.
Don't bring up the supershoes. They help for sure in the longer distances, but the 1500m and 800m WRs havent been threatened at all since the arrival of the super shoes.
I guess I'll keep this in mind when there are endless posts saying that all the sub-4:00 high schoolers are "really 4:02-4:03 guys getting a bump from the shoes."
Have you considered that the WRs in the 1500 and 800 haven't been threatened because the guys who set them are still, all these years later, MILES ahead of the current world's best? This supports the case that El G would walk away from the field.
Bad take: The 1500 WR hasn't been threatened, so shoes don't matter.
Good take: In spite of the huge advantage of the shoes, Jakob and others can't come close to El G because El G was miles ahead, and with the shoes he would run 3:24.
Obviously you will not answer ... because soccer is the most popular sport in the world hands down and way more lot of bukes and $$ behind it. Your friends Lineker, Van Basten, Boby Charlton are preparing their graves while seeing the new generation of not from European descent rising.
I think this is an intelligent and realistic analysis, I only think it’s funny that Jakob is just “too big” for Morceli to pass in the final 100, taking up 3-4 lanes of the track with his incredible girth.
Peter Romo is Mario Garcia’s dad - the Hispanic athlete who won surprise gold in 1988.
Well obviously I don't mean that, but from experience and watching a lot of races after retiring I really began to understand the added effort and difficulty in going around really good runners even if you have the ability to. I don't know if you have seen Jakob (just an example) in real life but he is a solid kid. He was actually much bigger than I thought he might be. He is broad shouldered and the way he swings his arms (elbows slightly pointing out) is a large "footprint" by elite standards. Take for example the difference between him and Morceli (who was tiny) and swung his arms a little more straight up and down (elbows pointing slightly in) - it makes a difference.
So yeah, I think in a race where these guys would be red-lining it the entire final 150m, a relatively large runner like Jakob (John Walker would be the other guy I would compare him to but sadly Jay Dubs is long gone in this hypothetical race) is just a problem to get around.
The OP said who would win in their primes. Well Jakob's prime is probably 2 or 3 years away, and he'll likely be running 3:24 then. That's too quick even for a juiced El G.
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