Sorry to belabor the point, but where are you getting 3? I count 4: Eugene mile, Oslo mile, Lausanne 15, Zurich 15.
You see what you want to see I guess. He didn’t improve his PR, but he looked as strong as I’ve ever seen him last year, even with the unfortunate WC loss. I was really impressed with the way he held his fitness throughout the year, running 3:29-low twice, completely unchallenged, after two championship doubles. I don’t see how you can chalk that up to everyone else getting worse. In my mind there’s no way Jakob was capable of that in 2021.
I don’t have any qualms with you saying he is beatable. I totally agree he can be beaten, whether he improves this year or not, though I obviously believe he’s still on an upward trajectory.
Sorry, I kept missing one of those I guess. We should get a good idea of it soon, which will be great to watch. I think the “completely unchallenged” part is where we part ways. I think that is because the A-level guys were missing/not at their best. If your top competition is Oli Hoare/an overraced Kipsang yes you will win easily once the race slips away from the 3:30 range. The competition on the circuit to me looks better and Jakob won’t be disappointed in the competition like last year. I really do think he wants Tim at his best and was disappointed he got the worse Tim we’d seen since 2016.
My point about those 3:29 races was mainly that Jakob went from straining for 3:47 and 3:31 in 2021, to effectively jogging (if you’ll pardon my exaggeration) 3:29.05 and 3:29.02 with nobody pushing him last year. That is clear improvement to me, regardless of the competition. Obviously with Tim firing on all cylinders, Jakob runs faster, or wins by a much smaller margin, or doesn’t even win, etc., in those races.
I totally agree that Jakob wants Tim at his best, and based on results so far he may get his wish. It’s looking to be a great year for the men’s 1500 with the top dogs all returning and the newcomers seeming to have a lot of upside.
What is remarkable about Jakob over the past few years, is his consistency in the 1500. He ranges from unbeatable to simply outstanding. Like, he can roll out of bed any time and pop at 3:30. When he’s only outstanding, he’s beatable. The rest of the field is sort of the inverse or it’s uncertain. Cheruiyot the younger and Yared have flashed brilliance, but the consistency is unknown. The others can beat Jakob, but they have to having a great day, and more often than not, it’s not happening. Tim used to have that amazing consistency, but not recently. Maybe it’s back, but I doubt it. So based on probabilities, Jakob is always the favorite, including in Rabat, but if he loses, it’s not a shocker. It’s happened before and will happen again, but not often, that is unless the new kids can bring their A game time after time.
The last time Jakob finished below 2nd in a race above 800m was Doha in 2019. Incredible consistency and he isn't exactly ducking competition
He was 3rd in Monaco 1500m in 2021 after getting sick and missing the Dream Mile. Still very consistent and doesn’t duck anyone.
My point about those 3:29 races was mainly that Jakob went from straining for 3:47 and 3:31 in 2021, to effectively jogging (if you’ll pardon my exaggeration) 3:29.05 and 3:29.02 with nobody pushing him last year. That is clear improvement to me, regardless of the competition. Obviously with Tim firing on all cylinders, Jakob runs faster, or wins by a much smaller margin, or doesn’t even win, etc., in those races.
I totally agree that Jakob wants Tim at his best, and based on results so far he may get his wish. It’s looking to be a great year for the men’s 1500 with the top dogs all returning and the newcomers seeming to have a lot of upside.
Thanks for the discussion.
Sure thing. I guess the exciting thing is we’ll see some good ones off the bat. It is disappointing if the Coffee Club rumor mill is true and Jakob has requested no Tim at Oslo in the past. It is a bit curious (though likely Nike-engineered) that both Cheruiyots are in LA this weekend. Assuming we’ll get the same/similar guys in Oslo as in Rabat. It’s be unfortunate if there’s some maneuvering between Silesia, London and Stockholm.
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No, racism is when a white person turns down a qualified black person for a job, or when a black person claims that Jews are in league with Satan etc. Racism is not viewing with scepticism a Spanish Moroccan who turns into a world beater almost overnight at age 23, when Spain and Morocco both have a history of confirmed and rampant EPO abuse.
I'd like to just agree with the people who said he has a lot of improvement left in 3K+. This is just my opinion, but I believe he has the talent to run 12:35 and 26:11.
Different event but Moula scratched the 800 with a hamstring issue (precautionary). So that one will be Arop vs the Kenyans. Mens 1500 looks fully intact thankfully, womens a different story…8 starters?
TH, you make the same mistake as many other posters on these boards:
You judge Jakob as if he was a "finished product" already years ago ; here in Doha 2019 where Jakob was just turned 19. It would be similar to judging Colin Sahlman´s entire career upon his performances at the moment.
Jakob is a MUCH stronger and faster runner today where he possibly is close to peaking physically. If Jakob has been in Tokyo 2021 shape in Doha in 2019 he would possibly have beaten Tim. Jakob ran almost a second faster in Tokyo than Tim did in Doha. And Jakob didn´t have as fast a start in Tokyo as Tim had in Doha.
The last year where Tim was able to hold off Jakob in every race was in 2020 where he narrowly beat him in Lausanne and Monaco .
And as stated before: I doubt Tim will come back to his 2018-2020 shape.
And it would perhaps not even be enough to beat Jakob if it true that Jakob has improved from last year (as Filip reportedly has stated recently).
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Unless some of the toprunners of recent years improve significantly I think the only ones with potential to beat Jakob at the moment are Nuguse and Reynold K. Cheruiyot
I've never said Jakob is a finished product. I believe most of his improvement is coming at 3K+ at this point however. You say he is much faster and stronger - what evidence do you have for faster? Did he look faster in 2022 than 2021 when he got outkicked by Jake Wightman? This indoor season where he beat Gourley but wasn't separating in the last 100?
You can be dubious about Tim returning to his old peak, I find that totally fair. But my main argument is if it did happen he would be right there challenging Jakob because he showed 3:27 type fitness and had fewer vulnerabilities than last year's Jakob. What I don't find as fair is overrating Jakob's 2021-22 season at 1500. Losing that race to Wightman he has ceded was objectively bad/below him. The loss to Tefera (sure, COVID) was weak. Losing to a banged-up Tim at 2021 Monaco(illness I guess) and after the Olympics...not great. Last year he was in 3:28 shape, and I've noted in this thread the few guys who might achieve closer to that fitness this year than last year when they were injured/sick/not emerging yet. If he's going to want to control the race he has to have a big gap to his competitors, and given his lack of major burst in the last 100 he could be vulnerable to their kick at the finish if he doesn't have a gap.
TH, read my post again! I stated that Jakob in 2021 (and 2022 of course) was much faster than in Doha 2019 when he was just turned 19.
I, however, also thinks he was faster in 2022 than in 2021 since he was unchallenged in the last 100m apart from the WC final when he possibly made the mistake not going faster in the third lap to outlast his opponents (and apart from the Worlds indoor where he had covid; shortly before he destroyed Tefera in Lievin breaking the Indoor 1500m WR).
I think Jakob´s finishing speed is greatly underestimated on these boards. Look at a race like the Bowerman Mile 2022 where Jakob runs away on the last lap but he is still easily holding Tim, Kipsang , Hoare and Hocker off in the last 100m even though these top finishers are sprinting "110%".
Somebody wrote in another post that I am biased in favor of Jakob. I don´t think so but it is true that I am more optimistic regarding his potential from 1500m and up than most here, including you.
1500m: I think he was sub 3:28 in 2021. When you can run low 3:28 with a difficult start where he had to slalom through the field and after rounds you would think he could go .5-1 sec faster under good conditions in Monaco.
I think he was faster last year so I assume he can go sub 3:27 this year if he is still improving as Filip has claimed recently.
3000m: I will just repeat what you have written yourself: If the likes of Girma, Katir and more can run around 7:25 Jakob must be able to go well under this time.
5000m: I suppose he can go close to 12:40 or perhaps even below but I don´t know when he will join a fast 5000 again.
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I stated years ago that Jakob will break all the WR´s from 1500m to 10.000m and I stick to to that prediction. I think he is much closer than people here will believe. If he ends up going to the roads he might also be a contender for the HM world best. I doubt he will ever seriously run the marathon
Jakob is well aware of the times Nuguse has posted indoors. I don't think Jakob will be waiting for the final 200 in this race. I imagine Jakob is asking for fast pacer, and taking over the lead with no less than 500m to go. Jakob will want to have a comfortable lead going into the final 200. Of course, Nuguse could surprise and be right there, but it's still early in the season, and Jakob has done the training he's wanted: altitude strength in USA, hills, and of course his high threshold pacing.
TH, read my post again! I stated that Jakob in 2021 (and 2022 of course) was much faster than in Doha 2019 when he was just turned 19.
I, however, also thinks he was faster in 2022 than in 2021 since he was unchallenged in the last 100m apart from the WC final when he possibly made the mistake not going faster in the third lap to outlast his opponents (and apart from the Worlds indoor where he had covid; shortly before he destroyed Tefera in Lievin breaking the Indoor 1500m WR).
I think Jakob´s finishing speed is greatly underestimated on these boards. Look at a race like the Bowerman Mile 2022 where Jakob runs away on the last lap but he is still easily holding Tim, Kipsang , Hoare and Hocker off in the last 100m even though these top finishers are sprinting "110%".
Somebody wrote in another post that I am biased in favor of Jakob. I don´t think so but it is true that I am more optimistic regarding his potential from 1500m and up than most here, including you.
1500m: I think he was sub 3:28 in 2021. When you can run low 3:28 with a difficult start where he had to slalom through the field and after rounds you would think he could go .5-1 sec faster under good conditions in Monaco.
I think he was faster last year so I assume he can go sub 3:27 this year if he is still improving as Filip has claimed recently.
3000m: I will just repeat what you have written yourself: If the likes of Girma, Katir and more can run around 7:25 Jakob must be able to go well under this time.
5000m: I suppose he can go close to 12:40 or perhaps even below but I don´t know when he will join a fast 5000 again.
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I stated years ago that Jakob will break all the WR´s from 1500m to 10.000m and I stick to to that prediction. I think he is much closer than people here will believe. If he ends up going to the roads he might also be a contender for the HM world best. I doubt he will ever seriously run the marathon
We’re probably not gonna convince each other. You’re seeing progress in 2022 where I’m seeing the same gap that existed between him and everybody but Tim. Well, Tim went back to the field so inevitably he won by a lot all season except for Worlds.
I stated years ago that Jakob will break all the WR´s from 1500m to 10.000m and I stick to to that prediction. I think he is much closer than people here will believe. If he ends up going to the roads he might also be a contender for the HM world best. I doubt he will ever seriously run the marathon
And as close as he is, he is also never going to get one and will retire from running after struggling to medal in Paris.
I stated years ago that Jakob will break all the WR´s from 1500m to 10.000m and I stick to to that prediction. I think he is much closer than people here will believe. If he ends up going to the roads he might also be a contender for the HM world best. I doubt he will ever seriously run the marathon
And as close as he is, he is also never going to get one and will retire from running after struggling to medal in Paris.
Jakob is well aware of the times Nuguse has posted indoors. I don't think Jakob will be waiting for the final 200 in this race. I imagine Jakob is asking for fast pacer, and taking over the lead with no less than 500m to go. Jakob will want to have a comfortable lead going into the final 200. Of course, Nuguse could surprise and be right there, but it's still early in the season, and Jakob has done the training he's wanted: altitude strength in USA, hills, and of course his high threshold pacing.
I give Jakob 90% chance to win, Nuguse 10%.
Good preview of the race on the coffee club pod. Once again Olli claims that Jakob plans to run FAST in Norway in a few weeks and therefore expects him to be super fit and sharp now. Lots of respect for Jakob expressed for showing up and racing in places like Rabat. No surprise, they expect Jakob to squeeze the mid section of the race and try to break Yared and render his last 200 impotent. No great insight there, but let’s see if he can do it.
Jakob is well aware of the times Nuguse has posted indoors. I don't think Jakob will be waiting for the final 200 in this race. I imagine Jakob is asking for fast pacer, and taking over the lead with no less than 500m to go. Jakob will want to have a comfortable lead going into the final 200. Of course, Nuguse could surprise and be right there, but it's still early in the season, and Jakob has done the training he's wanted: altitude strength in USA, hills, and of course his high threshold pacing.
I give Jakob 90% chance to win, Nuguse 10%.
He hasn’t been in USA for altitude- Sierra Nevada (2000m) in Spain.
I would rather Yared lose this upcoming race and win Worlds; therefore, if he lose no big deal as long as he was competitive against Jacob. If he wins this race then I hope he is 2-0 against Jacob after the World 1500m final. Nothing against Jacob but we have to be fan of our American 1500m hooeful Yared.
Jakob is well aware of the times Nuguse has posted indoors. I don't think Jakob will be waiting for the final 200 in this race. I imagine Jakob is asking for fast pacer, and taking over the lead with no less than 500m to go. Jakob will want to have a comfortable lead going into the final 200. Of course, Nuguse could surprise and be right there, but it's still early in the season, and Jakob has done the training he's wanted: altitude strength in USA, hills, and of course his high threshold pacing.
I give Jakob 90% chance to win, Nuguse 10%.
Good preview of the race on the coffee club pod. Once again Olli claims that Jakob plans to run FAST in Norway in a few weeks and therefore expects him to be super fit and sharp now. Lots of respect for Jakob expressed for showing up and racing in places like Rabat. No surprise, they expect Jakob to squeeze the mid section of the race and try to break Yared and render his last 200 impotent. No great insight there, but let’s see if he can do it.
I was skeptical of the world record rumors but am really hoping they end up being true. How fast does Jakob have to run in Rabat for you to believe he a) is targeting the record and b) has a chance to break it? I’m thinking ~3:29.0 and ~3:28.0, respectively.
I was skeptical of the world record rumors but am really hoping they end up being true. How fast does Jakob have to run in Rabat for you to believe he a) is targeting the record and b) has a chance to break it? I’m thinking ~3:29.0 and ~3:28.0, respectively.
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