But who is doing the sophisticated doping you described earlier? And why aren't they performing?
It looks like this year, many Kenyans are being caught by newly lowered limits of triamcinolone - a substance permitted out of competition - and stronger enforcement of whereabouts failures.
The uncomfortable fact is that most of the doping is being done by the Kenyans, which is why others are not achieving the same degree of success. I can imagine you being taken back in a time machine and justifying the successes of the E Bloc athletes before we knew that were almost all fuelled by drugs.
So when it suits you, you become what you fear most -- a doping denier. I thought you keep insisting that "official" prevalence estimates are as high as 40%.
Despite all the headlines, I'm not so sure you can make a case that "most of the doping" is being done by the Kenyans. The AIU's express focus on high performers means their testing is not uniformly distributed. With a 1-2% catch rate, if you double the testing, you double the AAFs. Many non-Kenyan dopers are getting away with not being tested because their performance just isn't putting them on the AIU's anti-doping radar.
And you don't answer the question -- who is doing all this alleged sophisticated doping you fantastically described earlier? It sounded like a romanticized version of the glory days of cycling and Team Postal. It's not the Kenyans, because a WADA study told us that the Kenyans doping was opportunistic and unsophistocated -- nothing like the picture you painted.
If it is just the Kenyans, why aren't the rest of the world doing it if it is so easy for sophisticated dopers to stay ahead of testers? Why haven't they done it in the '90s, when tests and anti-doping just didn't exist?
I can recognize it as one of the many gospels according to Armstronglivs.
You claim this is "being said by professional athletes and experts on the subject", yet can never provide corroboration.
I obtain my perceptions from a wide variety of sources whereas you appear mostly reliant on yourself and your "historical studies". If scientists did as you do the earth would still be believed to be at the centre of the universe.
Like a good narcissist, you still believe you are at the centre of the universe. You obtain your perceptions from your own butt.
I obtain my perceptions from a wide variety of sources whereas you appear mostly reliant on yourself and your "historical studies". If scientists did as you do the earth would still be believed to be at the centre of the universe.
Like a good narcissist, you still believe you are at the centre of the universe. You obtain your perceptions from your own butt.
Since there is no connection between what I said and your weak jibe we have established that you are a dullard.
The uncomfortable fact is that most of the doping is being done by the Kenyans, which is why others are not achieving the same degree of success. I can imagine you being taken back in a time machine and justifying the successes of the E Bloc athletes before we knew that were almost all fuelled by drugs.
So when it suits you, you become what you fear most -- a doping denier. I thought you keep insisting that "official" prevalence estimates are as high as 40%.
Despite all the headlines, I'm not so sure you can make a case that "most of the doping" is being done by the Kenyans. The AIU's express focus on high performers means their testing is not uniformly distributed. With a 1-2% catch rate, if you double the testing, you double the AAFs. Many non-Kenyan dopers are getting away with not being tested because their performance just isn't putting them on the AIU's anti-doping radar.
And you don't answer the question -- who is doing all this alleged sophisticated doping you fantastically described earlier? It sounded like a romanticized version of the glory days of cycling and Team Postal. It's not the Kenyans, because a WADA study told us that the Kenyans doping was opportunistic and unsophistocated -- nothing like the picture you painted.
If it is just the Kenyans, why aren't the rest of the world doing it if it is so easy for sophisticated dopers to stay ahead of testers? Why haven't they done it in the '90s, when tests and anti-doping just didn't exist?
Kenyan doping will be higher than 40%. They are currently probably the worst offenders for doping distance running. That doesn't mean that other countries aren't also doping - they are, but apparently not to the extent of the "talented" E Africans. To suggest that I am a doping denier, as you are, is ludicrous but a step towards your seeing yourself truthfully.
So the entire pool has to be tested in order to draw any conclusions from representative samples? That would mean you could certainly draw no conclusions from political polls - or anything else - because the entire planet hasn't been included in the data. I am now doubting your claim to be a statistical "expert".
You don't need to test the whole pool, if you make the assumption that the pools are representative of each other, but once again -- you made the opposite assumption that elite athletes doped more than recreational athletes.
You cannot pretend they are different and then turn around and pretend they are the same, and then turn around again to say they are different.
You don't need to be an expert statistician to see that, just sane.
The only thing you are consistent about is that elite athletes - particularly E African distance runners - don't dope. Or if they do, it doesn't help them. It is at least consistently stupid.
Surveys have shown that doping is likely highest at championship level but the problem is everywhere. But not that you would ever see it.
I obtain my perceptions from a wide variety of sources whereas you appear mostly reliant on yourself and your "historical studies". If scientists did as you do the earth would still be believed to be at the centre of the universe.
I try to filter out gossip and fantasy and uninformed speculation and rumors and obtain my perceptions from a wide variety of reliable sources connected to reality and observation, while not ignoring observed contradictions.
"Historical data" is just one such reality that needs to be accounted for.
Geo-centric and Helio-centric are just two mathematical models that are 1-1 transformations of each other. Both can be used to make future predictions about observations in the sky, but the math is much simpler with one.
Sophisticated doping is being done by those who are producing results and easily getting away with it. It can be anywhere, in any sport and in any country. But Kenyan distance runners do it en masse without knowing now how to get away with it.
Kenyan doping will be higher than 40%. They are currently probably the worst offenders for doping distance running. That doesn't mean that other countries aren't also doping - they are, but apparently not to the extent of the "talented" E Africans. To suggest that I am a doping denier, as you are, is ludicrous but a step towards your seeing yourself truthfully.
This is your pure personal speculation. In a thread about a Kenyan busted for EPO, I will note that the Sunday Times reported the results of Australian "experts" who reviewed a large population of 12,359 blood samples from more than 5000 athletes, and calculated blood doping suspicion over a 12 year period for Kenya at just 11%, and ranked Kenya as 13th most suspicious nation.
Of course the phrase "doping denier" is ludicrous and meaningless. It always has been.
You don't need to test the whole pool, if you make the assumption that the pools are representative of each other, but once again -- you made the opposite assumption that elite athletes doped more than recreational athletes.
You cannot pretend they are different and then turn around and pretend they are the same, and then turn around again to say they are different.
You don't need to be an expert statistician to see that, just sane.
The only thing you are consistent about is that elite athletes - particularly E African distance runners - don't dope. Or if they do, it doesn't help them. It is at least consistently stupid.
Surveys have shown that doping is likely highest at championship level but the problem is everywhere. But not that you would ever see it.
At least I am consistent.
Which surveys showed "doping is likely highest at championship level"? Can you name one?
And if that is what you thought all along, how does it make any sense to multiply 70,000 by 40% to "invent" 28,000? That's the inconsistency you wish to avoid.
I try to filter out gossip and fantasy and uninformed speculation and rumors and obtain my perceptions from a wide variety of reliable sources connected to reality and observation, while not ignoring observed contradictions.
"Historical data" is just one such reality that needs to be accounted for.
Geo-centric and Helio-centric are just two mathematical models that are 1-1 transformations of each other. Both can be used to make future predictions about observations in the sky, but the math is much simpler with one.
So you ignore what you don't like. We knew that.
Oh no -- I like gossip and fantasy and uninformed speculation and rumors as much as anyone else.
Sophisticated doping is being done by those who are producing results and easily getting away with it. It can be anywhere, in any sport and in any country. But Kenyan distance runners do it en masse without knowing now how to get away with it.
More pure speculation. Keep repeating this to yourself, close your eyes, and click your heels three times.
Kenyan doping will be higher than 40%. They are currently probably the worst offenders for doping distance running. That doesn't mean that other countries aren't also doping - they are, but apparently not to the extent of the "talented" E Africans. To suggest that I am a doping denier, as you are, is ludicrous but a step towards your seeing yourself truthfully.
This is your pure personal speculation. In a thread about a Kenyan busted for EPO, I will note that the Sunday Times reported the results of Australian "experts" who reviewed a large population of 12,359 blood samples from more than 5000 athletes, and calculated blood doping suspicion over a 12 year period for Kenya at just 11%, and ranked Kenya as 13th most suspicious nation.
Of course the phrase "doping denier" is ludicrous and meaningless. It always has been.
The "13th most suspicious" nation has an athlete busted every week now. So who has more?
Kenyan doping will be higher than 40%. They are currently probably the worst offenders for doping distance running. That doesn't mean that other countries aren't also doping - they are, but apparently not to the extent of the "talented" E Africans. To suggest that I am a doping denier, as you are, is ludicrous but a step towards your seeing yourself truthfully.
This is your pure personal speculation. In a thread about a Kenyan busted for EPO, I will note that the Sunday Times reported the results of Australian "experts" who reviewed a large population of 12,359 blood samples from more than 5000 athletes, and calculated blood doping suspicion over a 12 year period for Kenya at just 11%, and ranked Kenya as 13th most suspicious nation.
Of course the phrase "doping denier" is ludicrous and meaningless. It always has been.
What is ludicrous are your constant efforts to minimize doping in the sport and excuse its perpetrators. The flaw in your so-called "scientific" approach is that you understand nothing about human nature and the desire so many athletes have to succeed in any way possible, which is what drives doping. You think top athletes don't dope because that's what you want to believe. They don't think like you. Few do - and none of them will be successful athletes.
So Reky - 11% of Kenyans doping right? 38 of the top 100 male marathon runners are Kenyan. So 4 would be doping on your figures. 4%. So out of the 1264 males runners under 2:10 say 150 are kenyan. So that's 17 dopers. How many busts have there been this year? Right, doesn't add up huh?
Kenya sent 21 male athletes to the 2017 London WC.
7 of those have been banned for doping offences. That's 33%.
Mark Otieno Odhiambo (100m, 200m) Banned 2 years Steroids Boniface Mweresa (400m) Banned 2 years failed test Raymon Kibet (400m) Kipyegon Bett (800m) Banned 4 years EPO Ferguson Rotich (800m) Korir (800m) Tim (1500m) Manangoi (1500m) Banned 2 years for 5am traffic jam to Rongei Kiprop (1500m) Banned 4 years EPO Cyrus Rutoo (5000m) Banned 4 years EPO Josphat Menjo (5000m) David Kiplangat (5000m) Paul Tanui (10000m) Baden Muchiri (10000m) Kamworor (10000m) Kemboi (3000m Steeple) Kipruto (3000m Steeple) Birech (30000m Steeple) Kipketer (Marathon) Kirui (Marathon) Daniel Wanijuru (Marathon) Banned 4 years blood doping
21 athletes 7 banned
The number of Kenyan doping busts casts serious doubt upon the credibility of that Australian report. We know for sure that Kenyan doping is a lot higher than 11% and it is certainly not the '13th most suspicious'.
This is your pure personal speculation. In a thread about a Kenyan busted for EPO, I will note that the Sunday Times reported the results of Australian "experts" who reviewed a large population of 12,359 blood samples from more than 5000 athletes, and calculated blood doping suspicion over a 12 year period for Kenya at just 11%, and ranked Kenya as 13th most suspicious nation.
Of course the phrase "doping denier" is ludicrous and meaningless. It always has been.
What is ludicrous are your constant efforts to minimize doping in the sport and excuse its perpetrators. The flaw in your so-called "scientific" approach is that you understand nothing about human nature and the desire so many athletes have to succeed in any way possible, which is what drives doping. You think top athletes don't dope because that's what you want to believe. They don't think like you. Few do - and none of them will be successful athletes.
You will always see what you want to see, and after 50 years of conditioning, there is little I can do about that.
On the one hand, there is what we can observe with real data, e.g. from 12000+ samples from 5000+ athletes over 12+ years, and then there is the fantastic hidden world with naked emperors you describe based on generous but unsubstantiated inferences. I only seek to minimize the fantasy you are consistently unable to connect to the real world.