A Republican buddy of mine didn't think it was a big deal that Trump was running again. "He won't win the nomination as the primary voters will rally around someone else - probably DeSantis - just like the Dems did when it looked like Sanders was going to win."
I told him. I don't think you really get Trump. Dude's ego is too big. He'll never accept a loss. Plus I think it's quite likely he's making money off these campaigns. He'll run as a third party candidate and then it's game, set, match, loss for the GOP.
My buddy was like, "Wow. You're right, i hadn't thought of that."
I think there is almost zero chance Trump wins the nomination - less than 5% but a great than 25% chance he goes 3rd party. What do you think?
I actually think it’s a great question. If Trump smells that he’s losing the GOP & big money GOP donors, then it would be just like him to go scorched earth. So I would assign a high probability to it.
However, Michelle Obama is going to run and get elected in 24, no matter who the GOP runs. She’s the ultimate charlatan of all, but it doesn’t matter because the MSM, The View, Oprah, etc all love her.
I simply cannot believe this is what we have to choose from, even though I typically throw my vote away every four years anyhow. But, if Michelle O is it, I will have to vote against her.
I remember saying back in 2016 that Trump was the only candidate that could beat Hillary, and Hillary was the only candidate who couldn't beat Trump. Obviously, many people wouldn't have a shot, but you get the point - more people hated Clinton than hated Trump. Same reason Biden won, the hate for Trump was widespread, but the hate for Biden isn't.
If Michelle Obama were to run (I highly doubt she would), I can't help but think the same scenario would happen.
Adult in the room I could take the time to provide articles, facts and reasoning to support my claims but unfortunately I have a job and am at work and I can’t sh!t post here all day. So have a nice day you fvcking loser.
DeSantis leads Trump in all the GoP polls I've seen.
You're a moron and your employer is a fool for keeping you around.
The right wing red cap wearing crowd can't quit Trump. And he knows it. And the GOP can't win without the Red cap crowd. If anyone thought the GOP might pivot back to normalcy take a look at the first thing these screwballs do when they take House power.
Tackle Crime, Inflation you say?
Oh no. Hunter Biden laptop and investigating Pelosi for unfair treatment of insurrectionists. This is still Trump's party. He has the GOP by the gonads.
The right wing red cap wearing crowd can't quit Trump. And he knows it. And the GOP can't win without the Red cap crowd. If anyone thought the GOP might pivot back to normalcy take a look at the first thing these screwballs do when they take House power.
Tackle Crime, Inflation you say?
Oh no. Hunter Biden laptop and investigating Pelosi for unfair treatment of insurrectionists. This is still Trump's party. He has the GOP by the gonads.
Grow up Trevor. The Democrat senate won't pass any bill the House GoP sends them and if it was really useful Biden would veto it anyway.
can you make a one or two sentence post that I could respond to? I;m in the mood for an argument but not if I have to respond to a long rambling paragraph.
His argument was a false choice of the form "Was 1/6 an insurrection or was 'something else' an insurrection?". Whether or not 'something else' is an insurrection is not relevant to the first part.
Completely & deliberately incorrect. And myopic, as per usual. No choice to be made here. You can admit one was an attempt to subvert Democracy while also acknowledging all of the problems that are truly undermining Democracy, if not its institutions. That’s my position grounded in facts and reality.
One was an attack on the institution, and that’s the theatre and grandstanding that all you Libs carry on about incessantly. But the other is a far greater and more insidious threat to Democracy. And your party is enabling it. So, again, thanks for subverting Democracy, insurrectionist.
Trump is going in to WIN. He won't do something if he thinks he will lose. I remember he said that in an interview. He will stick with the GOP.
Um...he ran in 2020 and lost.
Now, I suppose he thought he'd win, so if that's where you are going, then ok. I submit to you that Trump is delusional about his chances.
Michael Cohen has said he doesn't believe Trump will ultimately end up running, because he doesn't think that Trump's ego can handle another loss. So far Cohen has been pretty right on the money with regard to Trump, so I will lean that way, even though the main thing is that Trump is unpredictable, so I am not declaring anything with regard to what that nutbar might do.
The right wing red cap wearing crowd can't quit Trump. And he knows it. And the GOP can't win without the Red cap crowd. If anyone thought the GOP might pivot back to normalcy take a look at the first thing these screwballs do when they take House power.
Tackle Crime, Inflation you say?
Oh no. Hunter Biden laptop and investigating Pelosi for unfair treatment of insurrectionists. This is still Trump's party. He has the GOP by the gonads.
The GOP paradox is that while they've needed the red caps enthusiasm, except for 2016, they can't win the general election with them any longer.
Replace the red caps with the new found DeSantis enthusiasm in Florida and the GOP will win nationwide again. ....DeSantis even pulled 25% of the Dem voters. Bring on Youngkin and they will be unstoppable.
J6 was exactly what it seems to be: The jackboot portion of a wide ranging effort by the Republican Party to overthrow the government of the United States and install Trump as leader. The plot had half a dozen prongs and J6 was one of them.
Michelle O has no interest in politics to my knowledge.
Ok, we are done here.
We are done here because you simply can’t speak to the real subversion of Democracy per my long response to you? You left wingers are impotent, ignorant, and incapable of mounting a compelling response other than “January 6!”
Assuming you're correct and M Obama is the nominee, there's no way that I will vote for her. But there's no way I will vote for Trump either.
I asked previously about governors Hogan, DeWine, Hutchinson and also Haley, do they have a chance of being the nominee? I never get answers, just downvotes.
Adult in the room I could take the time to provide articles, facts and reasoning to support my claims but unfortunately I have a job and am at work and I can’t sh!t post here all day. So have a nice day you fvcking loser.
DeSantis leads Trump in all the GoP polls I've seen.
You're a moron and your employer is a fool for keeping you around.
Yeah I remember when Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls..
We are done here because you simply can’t speak to the real subversion of Democracy per my long response to you? You left wingers are impotent, ignorant, and incapable of mounting a compelling response other than “January 6!”
Assuming you're correct and M Obama is the nominee, there's no way that I will vote for her. But there's no way I will vote for Trump either.
I asked previously about governors Hogan, DeWine, Hutchinson and also Haley, do they have a chance of being the nominee? I never get answers, just downvotes.
The short answer is no.
Outside of their own states no one knows who these people are.
If you aren't nationally known before the election you aren't going to win unfortunately.
Assuming you're correct and M Obama is the nominee, there's no way that I will vote for her. But there's no way I will vote for Trump either.
I asked previously about governors Hogan, DeWine, Hutchinson and also Haley, do they have a chance of being the nominee? I never get answers, just downvotes.
The short answer is no.
Outside of their own states no one knows who these people are.
If you aren't nationally known before the election you aren't going to win unfortunately.
tell that to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
The problem is that the Republican party has gone completely over to the Trump wing. So, in the primary, it is a choice between Coke and New Coke. DeSantis is just new Trump. And when given a choice between Trump and a bad copy, people who like Trump will pick Trump. DeSantis is infinitely smarter and more capable than Trump. But that is not why people voted for Trump. They love Trump because Trump knows how to work a crowd and do his insult routine on his rivals. DeSantis will never be able to out Trump Trump and will go down in flames if he tries. The only way DeSantis beats Trump is if he can lure never-Trumpers back to the party. But the never-Trumpers are as much against Trump for who he is and for his policies. DeSantis is willing to run with some of Trump's populism (anti-free trade, isolationist, etc.) which will keep him from being palatable with the never-Trumpers. And all the other potential nominees (Hailey, Youngkin, etc.) are too normie for the current Trump version of the Republican Party. So, Trump is going to win the nomination absent another Trump-like figure jumping in and out Trumping Trump.
I do not see Trump running third party simply because it is too much work and his organization is not filled with the sharpest sticks in the bunch. I think Trump would only run third party if a normie Republican got the nomination by running against the Trump wing as being too extreme.
Outside of their own states no one knows who these people are.
If you aren't nationally known before the election you aren't going to win unfortunately.
tell that to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
Democrats have a different path than Republicans do. Democrats always have the entire media and all of the entertainment and sports world promoting them incessantly.
It's really quite remarkable that you lose any elections given that you start every campaign rounding 3rd.
This is a testament to how outrageously awful your ideas are.
Thank you for this insightful thread. Being a registered Democrat, I have seen you shut down right wing lies and hate on this message board time and time again. You are clearly a champion of facts, decency and the fair democratic process.
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