valby will try to get away, she will not stay w the front pack and everyone knows it
Everyone may think that, but it doesn’t have to play out like that in order for Valby to win. Her best strategy is to conserve her energy until the race starts at ~4.5km.
"Soccer would have been the better path. Why am I doing this? I am in soooo much pain"
*Katelyn Tuohy as Parker Valley drags her through the 5K mark at 15:26....
Nobody is going to be going through 5k that fast, toolbag. The other day you said Valby would be going through 5k in 15:20. At least you’re lowering your expectations. If Valby tries to go that fast through 5k she may be lucky to be top 10.
"Soccer would have been the better path. Why am I doing this? I am in soooo much pain"
*Katelyn Tuohy as Parker Valley drags her through the 5K mark at 15:26....
Nobody is going to be going through 5k that fast, toolbag. The other day you said Valby would be going through 5k in 15:20. At least you’re lowering your expectations. If Valby tries to go that fast through 5k she may be lucky to be top 10.
That would mean around 9:15 for 3K and noone will be that fast at that point. Or if they are they will not make it to 6K. 5K is about the low point on the course.
Kaitlyn T!!!! She'll love the weather. She ran in one NY State Meet in high school that makes this weather look balmy. I was there, FREEZING my toes off in the frozen mud.
She glided across the course in her regular uniform like it was September warm.
didnt it snow at the ny state champs in like 2019? it def did!!
The years all run together- I went to States in NY from about 1994-2017. It snowed a few times. They're used to it in the Northeast.
Would have been a different comment if Katelyn Tuohy tried to break the 2mile record but she never attempted the 2mile record, she was just cruisin that 9:51 .. its on youtube.
thorvaldson ran 9:44 i think, then got injured after that race
Would have been a different comment if Katelyn Tuohy tried to break the 2mile record but she never attempted the 2mile record, she was just cruisin that 9:51 .. its on youtube.
thorvaldson ran 9:44 i think, then got injured after that race
I don't usually pay much attention to the women's race, but this year I will since the meltdown from the Tuohy groupies if she loses will be amazing.
I still think the SEC split distances were wrong, but I am not as convinced about the course being well short of 6K at this point as the distance actually added for the W loop (after 1K, 4K) looks about right (and longer than map suggested).
Valby could very well be faster looking at other results from this season, especially barrios. Although I think Engel was taking it easier in that race based on her other races, that was a big gap.
The SEC course had problems so personally I disregard those times across the board. All the top runners in that race had a final 5k split was close to their season best on a track, or better, and faster than they have ever run a 5k xc course. SEC was a true 6k if you believe they all made the same huge leap forward in fitness I guess but I don't. The top 5 xc times this season were all the top runners on that course.
Touhy and Mccabe both sit and kick this season, which makes it interesting because you don't really know how fast they can go. McCabe is always underrated because of this, she does not show her cards.
There could be a larger group at this point, but this is where the first of the steep roller hills starts....and someone will try to move here. My top 6 are Tuohy, Mercy, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel and Valby. None of these runners want to go into the last km even with Tuohy. None of these runners want Valby to be comfortable on these hills. And no one wants to give Mercy any confidence going to the last hill.
If Valby is going to win...she needs a lead before that last hill. So she needs a gap from here on and needs to push the pace. If she does, I don't think Chmiel or Roe will try to keep up at this point. They will hope for the others to blow out.
So again, I expect 4.5 km is where the real race will start.
I don’t agree with the first bolded statement. If the race were only 1km long tomorrow, on an uphill grind, I give the edge to Valby’s current fitness.
Please be specific at what distance/time into the race you are referring to by the phrase “that last hill”, as per my previous statements, in order to win it, I don’t think Valby has to absolutely have a gap advantage before the race starts at ~4.5km. There is no need to.
It is NCState that has to have set the pace up to that point, or they lose the Team Trophy. Therefore, McCabe, Chelangat, Roe and Valby should leave pacesetting duties to NCState. In that scenario, KT has expended the most energy up to that point in the race, and then McCabe and Valby can edge her out over the last 1km.
I believe I have been very specific...this is not a 1km race, so that is irrelevant....and the 'last' hill refers to the 'last' long hill. The same one Mercy ran away for the win in 2020. I have no idea what Valbys ability to run the final stretch of hills after an already tough first 4km. I highly doubt her strategy would be to try to beat Tuohy/Mercy on the last hill. Therefore she needs a gap.
I still think the SEC split distances were wrong, but I am not as convinced about the course being well short of 6K at this point as the distance actually added for the W loop (after 1K, 4K) looks about right (and longer than map suggested).
Valby could very well be faster looking at other results from this season, especially barrios. Although I think Engel was taking it easier in that race based on her other races, that was a big gap.
The SEC course had problems so personally I disregard those times across the board. All the top runners in that race had a final 5k split was close to their season best on a track, or better, and faster than they have ever run a 5k xc course. SEC was a true 6k if you believe they all made the same huge leap forward in fitness I guess but I don't. The top 5 xc times this season were all the top runners on that course.
Touhy and Mccabe both sit and kick this season, which makes it interesting because you don't really know how fast they can go. McCabe is always underrated because of this, she does not show her cards.
and that is why I focused on time differentials, and included thoughts on impact of type of race.
And yes, I think Valby is on PEDs and her dirty coach is part of it. This forum has censored this opinion worse than any in its entire history, but it is blatant and people are not stupid.
The meltdown has already started! This will be very amusing
Would have been a different comment if Katelyn Tuohy tried to break the 2mile record but she never attempted the 2mile record, she was just cruisin that 9:51 .. its on youtube.
thorvaldson ran 9:44 i think, then got injured after that race
I don't usually pay much attention to the women's race, but this year I will since the meltdown from the Tuohy groupies if she loses will be amazing.
I've thought a lot about the race. I am not a Tuohy groupie but I like her. I also like Valby, Chmiel and the other Wolfpack women, McCabe, Roe, Cook, Mercy and the Alabama women, New Mexico, Abby Nichols from last year, or any other top runner or team that makes the sport interesting and fun to follow.
TBH, if Tuohy's hamstring still is tweaked a bit, or even if it isn't, her not winning may not be the worst thing and it certainly won't be cause for a meltdown. Far more important is that she runs in a way that is good for her team. A team title is more important than an individual title. If Tuohy can't run within herself and implodes, not only will she throw away her chance at an individual title, her team will also lose because New Mexico, Oklahoma State, or Alabama will be there to pick up the pieces.
It will be fun. I hope that I can watch the women and the men race.
I don’t agree with the first bolded statement. If the race were only 1km long tomorrow, on an uphill grind, I give the edge to Valby’s current fitness.
Please be specific at what distance/time into the race you are referring to by the phrase “that last hill”, as per my previous statements, in order to win it, I don’t think Valby has to absolutely have a gap advantage before the race starts at ~4.5km. There is no need to.
It is NCState that has to have set the pace up to that point, or they lose the Team Trophy. Therefore, McCabe, Chelangat, Roe and Valby should leave pacesetting duties to NCState. In that scenario, KT has expended the most energy up to that point in the race, and then McCabe and Valby can edge her out over the last 1km.
I believe I have been very specific...this is not a 1km race, so that is irrelevant....and the 'last' hill refers to the 'last' long hill. The same one Mercy ran away for the win in 2020. I have no idea what Valbys ability to run the final stretch of hills after an already tough first 4km. I highly doubt her strategy would be to try to beat Tuohy/Mercy on the last hill. Therefore she needs a gap.
Just my prediction.
But it will be a 1.5km race, where the real ‘race-within-the-race’ starts.
The main reason I disagree with your prediction is what I saw Valby do in her last race, in preparation for this race. She attacked that last hill purposely, with a vengeance; not to win the race (which wasn’t necessary at that point), but for the mental preparation.
Therefore, I do not Valby will need a gap before the real race starts. Valby and Chelangat and Roe and Cook and McCabe can relax and make NCState be pacesetters up to that point in the race. NCState has to be the pacesetters, or they lose the Team Trophy to New Mexico.