You have the same problem as Canova; you are insistent that EPO will not aid altitude-trained endurance athletes, when neither of you have any experience of such athletes using EPO. You are both so sure of something you have never tested.
Yet the athletic and scientific consensus is that EPO aids endurance. That is why so many athletes use it. And marathon runners are endurance athletes. Furthermore, in the era before EPO those athletes that were only altitude-trained were slower than athletes in the later era when EPO became widely used - including by altitude-trained athletes. Thus, the inference must be that even with altitude-trained athletes EPO aids performance.
This is not my problem.
It is a proven fact that altitude naturally stimulates EPO production. There are plenty of altitude studies showing short term performance gains after a few weeks of training at altitude, comparable to short term gains from EPO studies. To the extent EPO helps endurance performance, living and training at altitude is like continuous micro-dosing 24x7. Who could ask for more? You get all the powerful benefits of EPO naturally, and you have a natural alibi.
The problem you have is that you, and the consensus forming athletes and scientists, have simply not shown the performance data to support your inferences and beliefs. Furthermore, if your inferences were correct, for elite marathon performances, we should have already seen that the best Russians (near 100% doping with multiple products since as far back as the '70s) are similarly as good as or better than Kenyans, rather than worse than the Japanese (0% suspicion), not to mention slower than Jake and Zane, and just marginally faster than Derek Clayton from 50+ years ago. That is just one of many reasons I reject your assumed conclusions.
Do you think all of Kipchoge's countrymen and women and friends training around him at altitude and pacing him in these time trials would not have gotten the message that EPO and other drugs don't work, aren't needed? Why do they use them? Because they know they work. How do they know they work before they take them?
Do you think all of Kipchoge's countrymen and women and friends training around him at altitude and pacing him in these time trials would not have gotten the message that EPO and other drugs don't work, aren't needed? Why do they use them? Because they know they work. How do they know they work before they take them?
“There’s no way you can compete without them,” Salazar said of performance-enhancing drugs. “It’s worth 45 seconds in the 10 kilometers and two minutes in the marathon.
Note the "them". It's not just one PED the drug cheats are using. Usually one just gets caught for one, not two or three at the same time.
Oh, and plus, these Kenyans would not be elite enough to be in the testing pool if they weren't doping.
Note, I don't disagree with you that there are a lot of Kenyans doping. We just disagree about what that entails. To me it's simple: a) There are hundreds of Kenyans competing for money (and many more aspiring) b) There are lots of PEDs to be had in Kenya c) There is little sophistication/organization as far as PED regimens d) There is targeted and highly-effective testing e) There are lots of drug busts of Kenyan athletes
This is almost like a gun-control debate. As long as there are tons of PED available and being pushed on them by crooked doctors/middlemen with little to lose (they're just pushing for profit), there are going to be large numbers of athletes desperate/dumb/immoral enough to use them. That doesn't mean that every athlete in Kenya is on them. The athletes especially with staying power, would have to be at the very least more sophisticated and regimented to not get busted. They join the RTP and flagrant doping is not going to work. It does an agent no good if the athletes are getting busted idiotically. The AIU head even touches on this with the ABP discussion, and then you consider the recent drug spate for one not even being banned out of competition.
I really don't know if Kipchoge is doping. I do know if he is, he would have to be doing so in a sophisticated manner. If he was doping like some of these others, he would've assuredly been caught by now as he is tested far more often in a targeted country for the AIU. If there were "sacred cows," why did they bust two big names who were becoming irrelevant in Asbel Kiprop and Wilson Kipsang?
To give examples of the wild mix of PEDs at the top in Kenya, see these illustruous Kenyans banned for PEDs since 2012: 1) Olympic champ + 3x World champ Kiprop, PR 3:26 (EPO 2017) 2) Olympic champ + London marathon winner Sumgong, PR 2:20:41 (EPO 2017) 3) 3x Boston (one DQ) + 2x Chicago marathon (one DQ) winner Jeptoo, PR 2:18:57 (DQ) (EPO 2014) 4) Boston + Chicago marathon winner Cherono, PR 2:03:04 (trimetazidine 2022) 5) London + Amsterdam marathon winner D. Wanjiru, PR 2:05:21 (ABP 2019) 6) Boston marathon winner Kipyokei, PR 2:22:06 (triamcinolone acetonide 2022) 7) Half marathon world record holder Kiptum, PR 58:18 (DQ) (ABP 2019) 8) Third fastest half marathon runner Kisorio back then, PR 58:46 (norandrosterone 2012 + whereabouts 2022) 9) Ranked 2nd in road running Renju, PRs 26:57/58:35 (methasterone 2022) 10) African champ Kipkemoi, PRs 26:52/59:01/2:05:44 (terbutaline 2019) 11) 2x Rotterdam + Abu Dhabi winner Kipserem, PR 2:04:04 (EPO 2022) 12) Tokyo winner Chepchirchir, PR 2:19:47 (ABP 2019) 13) 2x Seoul marathon winner Loyanae, PR 2:05:13 (EPO 2013) 14) Commonwealth + African champ Chepkirui, PRs 30:37/1:06:19 (ABP 2019) 15) Commonwealth + African champ Omanyala, PR 9.77 (betamethasone 2017) 16) 2x 2nd in Chicago and sub-2 pacer Kitwara, PRs 58:48/2:04:28 (terbutaline 2019) 17) Sub-2 pacer Kacheran, PR 2:05:19 (testosterone 2022)
Of these 17 drug cheats, I count: EPO/blood doping: 9; terbutaline: 2; testo: 1; nandro: 1; methasterone: 1; triamcinolone acetonide: 1; trimetazidine: 1; betamethasone: 1.
Honorable mentions, also EPO cheats: 18) 3000 m steeple world record holder and Olympic champ Jebet, Bahraini-turned Kenyan, PR 8:52.78 (EPO 2017) 19) Olympic silver medalist Kirwa, Bahraini-turned Kenyan, PR 2:21:17 (EPO 2017)
So 11 out of these 19 Kenyan born cheats used blood doping, from 2013 - 2022, male and female, from an Olympic 1500 m champ to an Olympic marathon champ, plus a world record holder and several marathon majors winners. Quite an elite group.
The only expert I have seen agree with your view that EPO doesn't help certain Kenyan athletes is a coach of Kenyan athletes. Well, he would say that - wouldn't he?
That would make it 1 to 0 in my favor.
Note this view is applicable to sea-level athletes too, for example Sondre Moen, or the Roberson twins, after training for an extended period at altitude.
This differs from the pure speculation of experts in other fields, with no real data or actual experience of creating elite performance or creating elite performance improvements, trying to estimate potential upper bounds of what could be based on direct or indirect observations of the wrong experiments on the wrong population.
This also differs from the beliefs of non-experts in this forum, also with no real data or experience.
Ask Eddy Hellebuyck if EPO helps. You need to get an education on this subject Rekrunner.
How many Russians are trying to be elite marathoners? Can you understand when it's pointed out repeatedly to you that 90% of the Russian population live in areas in which running long distances is uncomfortable or impossible for half the year? The Nigerian national record is 2:16. So even if he took EPO (assuming he is/did not), and EPO made a difference of 7 minutes, it would still only be 2:09. You have no idea what Russians would be running without EPO. You can't even compare them to the Russian pre epo era because the Soviet Union was blood doping athletes. Your logic is comical.
Of course, I can understand it. Pointing out something repeatedly doesn't make it more true or more relevant by virtue of repetition. What I said is missing is the performance data, and you seem to be saying that EPO can't work for Russians, because reasons. Are you also arguing that Russians and Nigerians are just inherently less talented than today's top athletes?
Substitute Russia for athletes from any country in 5 continents, and for kicks throw in North Africa, West Africa, and South Africa. Give me your best examples of 7 minute differences, say for example, relative to Derek Clayton from the late '60s, for perspective.
Did you see my paragraph arguing that altitude, which stimulates EPO, also works? Russian scientists have known this since the 1930s:
East African runners would have dominated middle/long distances with or without drugs in the last 40 years. What was wrong is the situation before 1980.
Do you think all of Kipchoge's countrymen and women and friends training around him at altitude and pacing him in these time trials would not have gotten the message that EPO and other drugs don't work, aren't needed? Why do they use them? Because they know they work. How do they know they work before they take them?
I do not think they would have gotten the message. On the contrary, if athletes are struggling and asked for help, I think they would have gotten a much different message.
Nor do I think "they know they work" -- that seems presumptuous.
I do think "they work" for East Africans as well as they work for everyone else.
How many Russians are trying to be elite marathoners? Can you understand when it's pointed out repeatedly to you that 90% of the Russian population live in areas in which running long distances is uncomfortable or impossible for half the year? The Nigerian national record is 2:16. So even if he took EPO (assuming he is/did not), and EPO made a difference of 7 minutes, it would still only be 2:09. You have no idea what Russians would be running without EPO. You can't even compare them to the Russian pre epo era because the Soviet Union was blood doping athletes. Your logic is comical.
Impossible to run for half the year? Like in Sandnes, Norway?
This is what we do know for sure; that a truckload of runners use EPO whether it 'works' or not - some are caught in testing protocols. Most, we can assume, are not. Most of those caught are Kenyan. It is not legal under the rules of competition. So they are taking prize money and placings in sanctioned races under false and fraudulent pretences. They get suspended as a result. The notion that it is or isn't performance enhancing or merely a placebo is irrelevant. They just shouldn't be taking it full stop; be it EPO or any of the other pharmaceuticals that are currently swimming around in runner's bodies. And just as an aside; please ignore the poster rekrunner - an obvious troll.
I don't disagree with the issue that you find most relevant. I don't think anyone does. Artificial EPO is banned, and competing athletes who take it should be banned, and prize money should be returned, and doctors, pharmacists, and coaches who give EPO to athletes for non-medical performance reasons should be banned.
But if the alleged performance enhancement aspect of it isn't so important, why are there so many lengthy threads about how powerfully enhancing these drugs must be, and why the obsession with wanting to believe that East Africans have dominated since the 1980s (if not before) due to an unprecedented large scale doping program that has managed to remain hidden for decades? (Or similarly about performing athletes like Paula and Shelby). I don't make any of these threads about "EPO doesn't work" -- indeed if it does work, that would largely favor populations of altitude based athletes whose EPO production is constantly stimulated naturally -- but simply ask, where is the performance data behind this popular speculation, and where is the performance data behind statements from "experts" like Schumacher, or the Salazar from 1998?
What I said is missing is the performance data, and you seem to be saying that EPO can't work for Russians, because reasons.
What are you talking about? No, don't answer, please.
What I'm saying is that your point "that 90% of the Russian population live in areas in which running long distances is uncomfortable or impossible for half the year" is nonsense. The Russian state and the Russian people have access to planes and Russia has access to training centers, and Russia has been doping their men and women with transfusions and steroids since the 1970s because they want to have the best athletes on the world stage.
But it's not just about Russia. Here's what you are not talking about:
Substitute Russia for athletes from any country in 5 continents, and for kicks throw in North Africa, West Africa, and South Africa. Many of these athletes can train comfortably year round. Give me your best examples of 7 minute differences, over the last five decades, say for example, relative to Derek Clayton from the late '60s, for perspective. (Or Bill Rogers from the '70s or Carlos Lopes or Steve Jones from the '80s).
Is the best elite example of a non-African confirmation that EPO really really works is Eddy Hellebuyck -- an aging master who turned to EPO and didn't run his personal best when he confessed to EPO and never ran a sub-2:10?
If drugs, that include EPO, do not aid performance then there would have been no significant improvement in the times altitude-trained athletes achieved before blood doping became widely used and EPO was developed. But since that time - which was the late '70's - distance performances have gone through the roof. That degree of improvement is not attributable to changes in training methods - which are largely the same - or even new "shoes". Thus, EPO and other peds undoubtedly aid altitude-trained runners.
But since that time - which was the late '70's - distance performances have gone through the roof. That degree of improvement is not attributable to changes in training methods - which are largely the same - or even new "shoes". Thus, EPO and other peds undoubtedly aid altitude-trained runners.
I would suggest you look more critically into your own suppositions: 1) What percentage of the best 5K+ runners trained at high altitude in the 1970s, when that is now the norm? 2) How many elite runners ran 90mpw+ for 5K, 110-140mpw+ for the marathon? 3) It's not the shoes you say — well the shoes probably help 4-6% from the cruddy shoes of the 1970s, and that is quite a significant amount.
If drugs, that include EPO, do not aid performance then there would have been no significant improvement in the times altitude-trained athletes achieved before blood doping became widely used and EPO was developed. But since that time - which was the late '70's - distance performances have gone through the roof. That degree of improvement is not attributable to changes in training methods - which are largely the same - or even new "shoes". Thus, EPO and other peds undoubtedly aid altitude-trained runners.
How many Russians are trying to be elite marathoners? Can you understand when it's pointed out repeatedly to you that 90% of the Russian population live in areas in which running long distances is uncomfortable or impossible for half the year? The Nigerian national record is 2:16. So even if he took EPO (assuming he is/did not), and EPO made a difference of 7 minutes, it would still only be 2:09. You have no idea what Russians would be running without EPO. You can't even compare them to the Russian pre epo era because the Soviet Union was blood doping athletes. Your logic is comical.
Of course, I can understand it. Pointing out something repeatedly doesn't make it more true or more relevant by virtue of repetition. What I said is missing is the performance data, and you seem to be saying that EPO can't work for Russians, because reasons. Are you also arguing that Russians and Nigerians are just inherently less talented than today's top athletes?
Substitute Russia for athletes from any country in 5 continents, and for kicks throw in North Africa, West Africa, and South Africa. Give me your best examples of 7 minute differences, say for example, relative to Derek Clayton from the late '60s, for perspective.
Did you see my paragraph arguing that altitude, which stimulates EPO, also works? Russian scientists have known this since the 1930s:
I think it's clear what he's saying, and you must be missing it on purpose. It's evident that top level running talent is rare, and doping is only proposed to provide a few percent improvement. E.g. a 2:20 marathoner on dope doesn't run 2:05, even if doping works. These are facts that I think everyone agrees on.
Then you still need a large population of marathoners to yield world elites with doping, because otherwise the selection pool doesn't contain enough talent, and Russia doesn't have that on the men's side. This does not suggest that doping doesn't work on Russians! Russians have never won a baseball title, but we don't take this as evidence that steroids don't work.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.
