28% of Americans won’t even consider buying an EV

HRE wrote:

Investor noob wrote:

I'm late to this thread but buying an EV as a second car in a two car family is a no brainer. The average American only drives 39 miles per day so charging overnight or range anxiety isn't a problem. Take the ICE or PHEV for the long trips.

ID4 is 42k with 7500 tax credit and 2500 state rebate. That's 32k after incentives, about 5k more than a Rav4 or CR-V. I charge for free at work so I will get that 5k difference back easily. No oil changes and less mechanical parts to fix/maintain. Best of all no emissions, quiet ride and instant torque. VW will introduce a 35k ID4 next year which is 25k after incentives, even cheaper than a Rav4 or CR-V.

An EV as a second car? Sure. An EV as an only car? For most people it's not going to work all the time.

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

HRE wrote:

An EV as a second car? Sure. An EV as an only car? For most people it's not going to work all the time.

Since we're currently supply limited, the question is what the landscape looks like and how people feel a few years down the road.

Roughly, sales of EVs have doubled every two years which extrapolates to 100% of new sales around 2030. That seems unlikely, but it does mean that it's plausible that in a few years that supply won't be a constraint and price competition will be more intense.

Battery capacity and cost have been improving at about 5-6% per year for some time so cost/range will be halved or better by the end of decade. This puts EVs at least on par with ICE vehicles cost wise. I expect also see fast charging on the order of 80% in 20 minutes be commonplace by end of decade.

There's no technical or economic reason charging infrastructure can't keep pace with sales growth.

In short, I don't think we're as far away from EVs dominating the market as some people suppose and I think the way forward is a lot clearer than it was a few years ago.

cwarcarblue11 wrote:

Farmboy wrote:

I can promise you that the 28% will not rethink this. I certainly will not. I will drive ICE until it's illegal, which I would hope logic would prevail and it never will be.

I can't wait to see all you EV driving people in places like California screaming and yelling when you're without electric in the summer because between people running their air conditioners and charging their cars the power grids won't be able to keep up. You coastal libtards already have this problem even without most vehicles being EVs

I can promise you many of the 28% will.

Why?

I have already convinced anti-EV friends to consider EVs simply by letting them drive my Tesla.

Also, I'm a conservative republican who voted for trump. And I live in AZ.

EVs are far better than gas vehicles. If anything, they reduce dependency on the government. The only thing holding them back is range, charging speed, and price, all or which are improving fast. By later this decade, it will be a dumb financial decision to buy a gas car, since it will cost more to buy, fuel, and maintain.

That said, as a conservative, I know how a lot of us have a desire to "stick it" to the government, and so I expect there will be a contingency who will still want to buy gas cars in 2030. What will stop them is the manufacturers themselves, who will not want to sell gas cars anymore due to low demand and higher costs.

bavers12 wrote:

cwarcarblue11 wrote:

I can promise you many of the 28% will.

Why?

I have already convinced anti-EV friends to consider EVs simply by letting them drive my Tesla.

Also, I'm a conservative republican who voted for trump. And I live in AZ.

EVs are far better than gas vehicles. If anything, they reduce dependency on the government. The only thing holding them back is range, charging speed, and price, all or which are improving fast. By later this decade, it will be a dumb financial decision to buy a gas car, since it will cost more to buy, fuel, and maintain.

That said, as a conservative, I know how a lot of us have a desire to "stick it" to the government, and so I expect there will be a contingency who will still want to buy gas cars in 2030. What will stop them is the manufacturers themselves, who will not want to sell gas cars anymore due to low demand and higher costs.

I can guarantee you that those of us in the middle of the country will not be being EVs. In fact I'd bet in 2030 states like Ohio still have FARRRRRR more ICE vehicles on the road than EVs and car companies will continue to sell ICE vehicles because of it. But what do I know, my dad is just an executive at one of the Big 4. ICE vehicles are not going away.

My problem with EVs has nothing to do with the government. In fact it has more to do with terrible engineering that will lead to many issues,(see battery fires), poor range (even worse for those of us who frequently pull things with our truck, and to be honest us country folk love the sound an ICE engine makes.

cwarcarblue11 wrote:

bavers12 wrote:

I can guarantee you that those of us in the middle of the country will not be being EVs. In fact I'd bet in 2030 states like Ohio still have FARRRRRR more ICE vehicles on the road than EVs

While around 90% of new vehicle sales should be electric in 2030, the vehicles on the road will take more time because many are old.

bavers12 wrote:

But what do I know, my dad is just an executive at one of the Big 4. ICE vehicles are not going away.

This doesn't give me hope that the "Big 4" will be able to catch up to Tesla.

bavers12 wrote:

My problem with EVs has nothing to do with the government. In fact it has more to do with terrible engineering that will lead to many issues,(see battery fires), poor range (even worse for those of us who frequently pull things with our truck, and to be honest us country folk love the sound an ICE engine makes.

EV battery fires are rare and getting rarer. ICE vehicles have the same problem (https://www.azfamily.com/2022/07/12/suv-owners-warned-park-outside-over-fire-risk/).

"Poor range" - while today's range is not enough for 100% of uses, as others have said, it is getting better at a fast rate. By the middle of the decade, range will be a non-issue - towing pickups will have 600mi+ base range giving them plenty of buffer for towing range loss. Those who tow heavy loads will be among the last to switch, but advances in battery technology will eventually make it easy.

"The sound of an ICE engine" - I agree, some ICE vehicles sound cool. Many enjoy riding horses too and that is still a popular recreational activity. I expect many ICE vehicles will still be used for recreational driving, just not regular use, since it will cost more.

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

cwarcarblue11 wrote:

While around 90% of new vehicle sales should be electric in 2030, the vehicles on the road will take more time because many are old.

This doesn't give me hope that the "Big 4" will be able to catch up to Tesla.

EV battery fires are rare and getting rarer. ICE vehicles have the same problem (https://www.azfamily.com/2022/07/12/suv-owners-warned-park-outside-over-fire-risk/).

"Poor range" - while today's range is not enough for 100% of uses, as others have said, it is getting better at a fast rate. By the middle of the decade, range will be a non-issue - towing pickups will have 600mi+ base range giving them plenty of buffer for towing range loss. Those who tow heavy loads will be among the last to switch, but advances in battery technology will eventually make it easy.

"The sound of an ICE engine" - I agree, some ICE vehicles sound cool. Many enjoy riding horses too and that is still a popular recreational activity. I expect many ICE vehicles will still be used for recreational driving, just not regular use, since it will cost more.

Please don't say 90% of new car sales in 2030 will be electric. That is a crock.. Just quit saying that.

Ex L wrote:

Farmboy wrote:

Quite simply put I'd be willing to bet if you put together a map of the US and showed which states have extreme interest in EVs vs which states are like "heck no" it would look exactly like an electoral map from any election. As someone who lives in Ohio I can guarantee you the average man living out in the country such as myself will not be buying an electric vehicle. The range is terrible to begin with and as soon as you hook a trailer, camper etc, or load the bed of F-150 lightning with lumber, mulch, dirt etc, you suddenly make the range even worse. I'll stick to my gas truck until you fruity coastal elites ultimately decide to make it illegal for me to drive a gas truck.

You may have it flipped.

If you live an urban area it’s hard to find daily charging.

If you live in a rural area, you can easily plug your vehicle in every night at hone and will rarely have to drive more than 300 miles in a day.

They make more sense for rural areas.

cwarcarblue11 wrote:

bavers12 wrote:

I can guarantee you that those of us in the middle of the country will not be being EVs. In fact I'd bet in 2030 states like Ohio still have FARRRRRR more ICE vehicles on the road than EVs

While around 90% of new vehicle sales should be electric in 2030, the vehicles on the road will take more time because many are old.

bavers12 wrote:

But what do I know, my dad is just an executive at one of the Big 4. ICE vehicles are not going away.

This doesn't give me hope that the "Big 4" will be able to catch up to Tesla.

bavers12 wrote:

My problem with EVs has nothing to do with the government. In fact it has more to do with terrible engineering that will lead to many issues,(see battery fires), poor range (even worse for those of us who frequently pull things with our truck, and to be honest us country folk love the sound an ICE engine makes.

EV battery fires are rare and getting rarer. ICE vehicles have the same problem (https://www.azfamily.com/2022/07/12/suv-owners-warned-park-outside-over-fire-risk/).

"Poor range" - while today's range is not enough for 100% of uses, as others have said, it is getting better at a fast rate. By the middle of the decade, range will be a non-issue - towing pickups will have 600mi+ base range giving them plenty of buffer for towing range loss. Those who tow heavy loads will be among the last to switch, but advances in battery technology will eventually make it easy.

"The sound of an ICE engine" - I agree, some ICE vehicles sound cool. Many enjoy riding horses too and that is still a popular recreational activity. I expect many ICE vehicles will still be used for recreational driving, just not regular use, since it will cost more.