I'm a former swimmer, runner, and triathlete. Everything that Cain says is entirely plausible. I am slightly bearish on her triathlon career, but it's likely reasonable for her to shoot for a career as a professional triathlete.
1) The swimming question depends a lot on her times. By age 15, swimmers likely know whether they are a D1 talent or not. If she was under 5:00 in the 500 free, she certainly could have gone D1 (although maybe not for the very best teams). Between 5:00 and 5:15, she could have gone to a mid-major team, but wouldn't have been a star anywhere. Between 5:15 and 5:30, I'm sure she could have found a spot at a small D1, but this is more the range of trying to score at a D3 conference meet. (Of course, the 500 free may not have been her target event, in which case, look up the equivalent power points). Finally, I wouldn't read too much into it, but it is a bit surprising that Cain didn't mention her swim times.
2) She can't get past her physical issues just by switching sports. The training is different, the body type is different and triathletes don't always peak at the same time as runners. But the feeling of being in peak form and firing on all cylinders is the same. Cain for reasons that have discussed ad nauseum is not currently at her physical peak. It's likely that whatever she does as a triathlete, she could have been faster had she switched at age 16.
3) I find that some excellent runners also make excellent swimmers, and some do not. Part of it is experience, but I find that the talent aspect of technique is orthogonal to running talent. It remains to be seen whether Cain has talent in that area. If she does, she could have a successful triathlon career, but if not she may struggle.
4) Cain will likely never be a monster on the bike, but it won't make or break her. If she gets to a place where her swimming is competitive and her running is close to what it used to be, she'll figure out the bike leg. If not, no biking ability will save her.
5) A good reference point for Cain is Gwen Jorgensen. Gwen was likely around 4:50-5:00 for the 500 free in college (solid D1, but not making NCAAs), and an incredible off-the-bike runner. Her bike leg was what you get when you take that outstanding of an athlete and have them work very hard, but I wouldn't say it was a particular talent of hers. She came to triathlon at a similar age as Cain, and after "retiring" from sport. Cain will likely never be able to run like Gwen, and probably not swim like her either, but this is the reason that it's foolish to count out Cain for any success.
To summarize, it really comes down to two things: Does Cain have talent as a swimmer? And does Cain's body still have the ability to be the same level of overall athlete she used to be? If so, she'll be very competitive, potentially on an international level. If not, she may struggle.
I enjoyed the time you put in to this.
I'm glad Cain is pursuing her dreams. I got back into running after college as I very much thought to myself, "When I'm old, I don't want to have a regret and wonder, 'Would I have been great at running if I gave it a go?'" Now I don't have to ask that question. Neither will Cain.
So I'm glad she's doing. Now how do I think she'll do?
You asked in the last paragraph, "Does Cain's body still have the ability to be the same level of overall athlete she used to be?"
I think the answer to that is no. She has not come close to approaching her old times. The question I have is, "Does she need to?"
Two years ago, Cain ran 8:07 for 3k. Taylor Knibb was a US Olympian this year. I'm familiar with her as she attended Cornell. Her 3k pb is 9:40. Now she's a better runner than that as she made NCAAs in xc individually (125th).
The woman right behind Knibb at NCAAs has a 9:07 pb.
But the worry for me is this. When Cain is focused on just running, she may be as good as some of the traithletes at running. But she's not going to be solely focused on running. So she may not even be as good at them at running and I think she'll almost certainly be way worse than them at other events. Knibb for example is incredible at cycling.
One other big worry, given the fact Cain is a sub-2:00 800 woman, why do we think she'll be good at an event that lasts something like close to 2 hours? Cain is too mid-d of an athlete in my mind to be the type of woman that will rock a 10k at the end of a triathlon.
The Knibb comparison/framing isn't even close to being right. Obviously Knibb could throw down a much faster 3k. A French triathlete just ran close to 9:00 indoors. That's front-end for ITU women. So if Cain is "only" a 9:07 3k runner, that's in line with the best pros. Her open running isn't going to take the big hit you think it will. Race times will be race times but I doubt she loses a ton of open fitness. The swimming/biking plus running will have her training more hours than she did when she was just a runner but she'll only need to run 40ish miles/week (if that). I think you're going to be surprised.
& Cain already rocked a 5k in 18-flat at the end of a sprint off of probably very little training. Keep up. She'll be able to give this a go -- no thanks to threads like this that are really just attacking an athlete, who has gone through so much, for trying something new. It's not warranted.
5:48 is 1:10/100. For a 12 year old, that is impressive since it means she's got the technique. The endurance would have come if she had stuck with it.
if you can swim and run, the bike will work itself out.
This could be really fun to watch unfold. Good for her!
That is be a 500 yard time. The pace per 100m is more like 1:18.
That is not special at age 12.
Her 50 and 100 free times (SC yards) were also not good: 28.5 and 1:02.
This isn't right. 5:48/500y absolutely shows d1 potential. Not national or world class potential but you see sub-5:30 landing women at mid-majors. She wasn't gonna cut off 18s over 5 years of continued training?
She was 13th OA out of 200+ at her Sprint Tri on probably not that much training. That's actually a big field for a local triathlon & 13th should be viewed as encouraging. Clearly she has some form/technique from her past, which is everything in swimming.
Funny, I did a few local sprint triathlons and my swimming sucks but I often clocked one of the top 3 times on the bike. I thought that it was normal for runners to suck at running and be competitive on the bike.
I did not find it too hard to get used to the twi-bike, but my experience is for non-drafting triathlons, I suspect that riding with the pack would be different animal.
I feel like this is a causation versus correlation thing. With limited training, I think a well trained runner is going to be a ton better at biking than swimming if they're not familiar with either of those two disciplines. If you never swam as a kid you still likely know how to ride a bike & have done some rides for cross training if you've ever been injured.
What you said makes sense to me and, while that's great you crushed some local triathlons, my guess is a larger race would have been eye-opening when it comes to the bike. Once you get in a race like AG Nationals or a big 70.3/140.6, the competition level rises. Triathlon is just a lot smaller than running. In running you can get dusted in a college 5k any weekend. My guess is that it would have been very difficult to qualify for something like AG Worlds or 70.3 Worlds off of what you did to do well at the local stuff. Don't mean it as a knock. Look at whatever USAT rating you got from that race & compare it to bigger races.
That is be a 500 yard time. The pace per 100m is more like 1:18.
That is not special at age 12.
Her 50 and 100 free times (SC yards) were also not good: 28.5 and 1:02.
This isn't right. 5:48/500y absolutely shows d1 potential. Not national or world class potential but you see sub-5:30 landing women at mid-majors. She wasn't gonna cut off 18s over 5 years of continued training?
She was 13th OA out of 200+ at her Sprint Tri on probably not that much training. That's actually a big field for a local triathlon & 13th should be viewed as encouraging. Clearly she has some form/technique from her past, which is everything in swimming.
Sub-5:15 500yd. freestyle is the usual mid-major standard. If you see females swimming 5:28.xx or 5:29.xx D-1, 500 yards freestyle is not their event. Can't say 5:48.xx at age 12 would have meant 5:14.99 500 yards by her junior season in high school when schools are looking at athletes.
What is so hard to believe here? She excelled in swimming apparently then onto Track, at a very high level. As a former D1 swimmer, the talent and aerobic capacity appear there , its just that she went the route of running. Someone I knew in swimming played golf in high school, decided to get more serious about swimming year around...went from decent recruit at a D1 program that at the time was ranked maybe 25th. His progression once fully into swimming was incredible: NCAA titles, Olympic Trials wins, Olympic medals (gold in relays).
I don't doubt at all she had the engine to have a roster spot. Some coaches would even take the raw athlete just on possibility.
I think 1:02n 100y and 5:48 500f imply swimming competency at age 12 for female, and on the right track for D1, definitely. Especially if butterfly is her best stroke
Sub-5:15 500yd. freestyle is the usual mid-major standard. If you see females swimming 5:28.xx or 5:29.xx D-1, 500 yards freestyle is not their event. Can't say 5:48.xx at age 12 would have meant 5:14.99 500 yards by her junior season in high school when schools are looking at athletes.
We would need some idea of how serious she was as a 12 year old. If she had been in the pool 6 days/week 3 years would be a lot different than someone who did it for like 4 months in the summer and then played soccer. As it is 5:48 at 12 makes you promising but doesn't scream generational talent.
That being said, the running talent isn't there anymore. Anyone think she can run like a 34min 10k these days? Maybe she is good enough to be a bottom tier American but it is hard to imagine her as a top pro given what we have seen over the past 5 years.
This isn't right. 5:48/500y absolutely shows d1 potential. Not national or world class potential but you see sub-5:30 landing women at mid-majors. She wasn't gonna cut off 18s over 5 years of continued training?
She was 13th OA out of 200+ at her Sprint Tri on probably not that much training. That's actually a big field for a local triathlon & 13th should be viewed as encouraging. Clearly she has some form/technique from her past, which is everything in swimming.
Sub-5:15 500yd. freestyle is the usual mid-major standard. If you see females swimming 5:28.xx or 5:29.xx D-1, 500 yards freestyle is not their event. Can't say 5:48.xx at age 12 would have meant 5:14.99 500 yards by her junior season in high school when schools are looking at athletes.
Be honest. any decent coach could likely get a 12 year old with a 5;48 down under 5;15 by jr year of high school. I know women who weren't 5;48 at age 12 who broke 5;00 by senior year of high school.
I'm a former swimmer, runner, and triathlete. Everything that Cain says is entirely plausible. I am slightly bearish on her triathlon career, but it's likely reasonable for her to shoot for a career as a professional triathlete.
1) The swimming question depends a lot on her times. By age 15, swimmers likely know whether they are a D1 talent or not. If she was under 5:00 in the 500 free, she certainly could have gone D1 (although maybe not for the very best teams). Between 5:00 and 5:15, she could have gone to a mid-major team, but wouldn't have been a star anywhere. Between 5:15 and 5:30, I'm sure she could have found a spot at a small D1, but this is more the range of trying to score at a D3 conference meet. (Of course, the 500 free may not have been her target event, in which case, look up the equivalent power points). Finally, I wouldn't read too much into it, but it is a bit surprising that Cain didn't mention her swim times.
2) She can't get past her physical issues just by switching sports. The training is different, the body type is different and triathletes don't always peak at the same time as runners. But the feeling of being in peak form and firing on all cylinders is the same. Cain for reasons that have discussed ad nauseum is not currently at her physical peak. It's likely that whatever she does as a triathlete, she could have been faster had she switched at age 16.
3) I find that some excellent runners also make excellent swimmers, and some do not. Part of it is experience, but I find that the talent aspect of technique is orthogonal to running talent. It remains to be seen whether Cain has talent in that area. If she does, she could have a successful triathlon career, but if not she may struggle.
4) Cain will likely never be a monster on the bike, but it won't make or break her. If she gets to a place where her swimming is competitive and her running is close to what it used to be, she'll figure out the bike leg. If not, no biking ability will save her.
5) A good reference point for Cain is Gwen Jorgensen. Gwen was likely around 4:50-5:00 for the 500 free in college (solid D1, but not making NCAAs), and an incredible off-the-bike runner. Her bike leg was what you get when you take that outstanding of an athlete and have them work very hard, but I wouldn't say it was a particular talent of hers. She came to triathlon at a similar age as Cain, and after "retiring" from sport. Cain will likely never be able to run like Gwen, and probably not swim like her either, but this is the reason that it's foolish to count out Cain for any success.
To summarize, it really comes down to two things: Does Cain have talent as a swimmer? And does Cain's body still have the ability to be the same level of overall athlete she used to be? If so, she'll be very competitive, potentially on an international level. If not, she may struggle.
I enjoyed the time you put in to this.
I'm glad Cain is pursuing her dreams. I got back into running after college as I very much thought to myself, "When I'm old, I don't want to have a regret and wonder, 'Would I have been great at running if I gave it a go?'" Now I don't have to ask that question. Neither will Cain.
So I'm glad she's doing. Now how do I think she'll do?
You asked in the last paragraph, "Does Cain's body still have the ability to be the same level of overall athlete she used to be?"
I think the answer to that is no. She has not come close to approaching her old times. The question I have is, "Does she need to?"
Two years ago, Cain ran 8:07 for 3k. Taylor Knibb was a US Olympian this year. I'm familiar with her as she attended Cornell. Her 3k pb is 9:40. Now she's a better runner than that as she made NCAAs in xc individually (125th).
The woman right behind Knibb at NCAAs has a 9:07 pb.
But the worry for me is this. When Cain is focused on just running, she may be as good as some of the traithletes at running. But she's not going to be solely focused on running. So she may not even be as good at them at running and I think she'll almost certainly be way worse than them at other events. Knibb for example is incredible at cycling.
One other big worry, given the fact Cain is a sub-2:00 800 woman, why do we think she'll be good at an event that lasts something like close to 2 hours? Cain is too mid-d of an athlete in my mind to be the type of woman that will rock a 10k at the end of a triathlon.
think she will know after a season. i'm expecting a conservative race for her first olympic distance . her sprint tri in sept was pretty good .
Was she claiming she's a pro triathlete? Is she not racing to try to get her pro card?
Anyway, as she continued to mature it was clear she couldn't run world class times anymore while staying healthy. I applaud her willingness to give another sport a shot and she's probably having a lot of fun doing something new where she can improve and set personal bests again, which was not going to happen anymore for her with running unless she moved up to distances she had previously never competed at.
I have a feeling she's going to look like a total Fred on the bike, but hey that means she'll fit right in with the tri crowd.
Don’t be so sure about looking like a “Fred” on the bike. She’s got the build to be a strong time trial rider, and that’s all that matters in triathlon. Long legs, big VO2. She just needs to learn to pedal smoothly and handle the bike. True some people never get comfortable on the bike, but I would bet she’s already done some tests to see how she might do. She would need a coach to guide her.
Triathlon could be just the right fit for Cain. I would not be surprised to see her up with the elite females for those short course Super League events.
Ser, as a former pro I am 100% certain she will look like a Fred to me and most other past/current professional roadies. I agree re: her build, but that's not really what makes someone look like a Fred or not. It's how they move on the bike, their posture, their pedal stroke, etc. It takes a lot of hours in the saddle over a long period of time to pass the eye test.
I feel like you're discounting things here when you say she "just needs to learn to pedal smoothly and handle the bike." So very much easier said than done. For instance, Froome still looks like a Fred when he's not on a TT bike. I wasn't trying to equate looking like a Fred with being successful, as obviously the two are not mutually exclusive.
Again, I applaud this decision of hers completely. I wish more runners would consider it when they realize their ceiling as a runner and the fire starts to go out.
I personally think she's got a great chance at being successful if she sticks with it long enough. Of course, how one defines success is the key. To me, "success" for her means she's got a smile on her face more often than not. That was something she lost for a long time and it was a bit heartbreaking to watch such a massively talented person get chewed up and spit out like she did.
Everyone loves a comeback story, especially when they are an underdog. I guarantee you 90% of the haters on here would be superfans again if she exceeds expectations. The only reason most became haters in the first place is because they were living vicariously through her and when she stopped meeting their expectations it causes them to feel bad. It's like expecting the Lakers to win a ring every season: totally unrealistic but their fanbase is emotionally tied to them winning and feel bad when they don't, so take it out on the players/team if they're not winning.
As a large (75kg) and yet competitive runner in my age group, I thought that Triathlon might be perfect for me. Completed a half dozen 1/2 Ironmans and a couple of full Ironman's(including Kona), but man I really really suck on the bike and nothing seemed to help. Also, swimming - not great. Always seemed to me that some runners can bike (e.g. Michael Woods), and some just can't for the life of them. I'm not sure why. Does anybody have an insight in to why that is? It was back to just running for me.
How many hours a week were you putting in and for how long of a time period?
As a large (75kg) and yet competitive runner in my age group, I thought that Triathlon might be perfect for me. Completed a half dozen 1/2 Ironmans and a couple of full Ironman's(including Kona), but man I really really suck on the bike and nothing seemed to help. Also, swimming - not great. Always seemed to me that some runners can bike (e.g. Michael Woods), and some just can't for the life of them. I'm not sure why. Does anybody have an insight in to why that is? It was back to just running for me.
I also wonder about this. I'm age-group competitive and generally faster than 99% of regular people at running. But I am SUPER mediocre on the bike, even during times when I trained for it somewhat. What's up with that?
"even during times when I trained for it somewhat." there's your answer ser.
Sub-5:15 500yd. freestyle is the usual mid-major standard. If you see females swimming 5:28.xx or 5:29.xx D-1, 500 yards freestyle is not their event. Can't say 5:48.xx at age 12 would have meant 5:14.99 500 yards by her junior season in high school when schools are looking at athletes.
Be honest. any decent coach could likely get a 12 year old with a 5;48 down under 5;15 by jr year of high school. I know women who weren't 5;48 at age 12 who broke 5;00 by senior year of high school.
I was a club swimmer dad. If you want to know what I saw the most: girls peaking at age 13, girls giving a great effort through high school and/or maybe one season in college. When I say the most, I don't mean 50.1%, I mean a significant majority. My daughter who swam continued to improve, but she cross-trained. U.S. female swimmers are some of the best in the world. How would Mary C. feel about no nonsense 6'0 170 lbs. female teammates whom are sweat hearts outside of swimming but tough as nails in the pool? Didn't Mary C. say some of her T&F 5'3" 100 lbs. teammates were mean to her?
Be honest. any decent coach could likely get a 12 year old with a 5;48 down under 5;15 by jr year of high school. I know women who weren't 5;48 at age 12 who broke 5;00 by senior year of high school.
I was a club swimmer dad. If you want to know what I saw the most: girls peaking at age 13, girls giving a great effort through high school and/or maybe one season in college. When I say the most, I don't mean 50.1%, I mean a significant majority. My daughter who swam continued to improve, but she cross-trained. U.S. female swimmers are some of the best in the world. How would Mary C. feel about no nonsense 6'0 170 lbs. female teammates whom are sweat hearts outside of swimming but tough as nails in the pool? Didn't Mary C. say some of her T&F 5'3" 100 lbs. teammates were mean to her?
Yep. It's real hard to guess what can be done until it has been done. I know a couple of women who could break 5:00 in the 500 fr in high school. I have no reason to believe either could break a 7:30 running the mile. I'll take it as likely that Mary didn't switch to track because she thought swimming was easier. You really have to run the gauntlet to rise through the ranks in swimming. Sounds like she didn't really run that gauntlet yet. The female swimmers I knew who broke 5:00 in high school were putting in doubles in the pool and weights mostly year round. If Mary wants to pick up d1 swimming speed and bike, I wonder how many hours she is putting in.
Everyone loves a comeback story, especially when they are an underdog. I guarantee you 90% of the haters on here would be superfans again if she exceeds expectations. The only reason most became haters in the first place is because they were living vicariously through her and when she stopped meeting their expectations it causes them to feel bad. It's like expecting the Lakers to win a ring every season: totally unrealistic but their fanbase is emotionally tied to them winning and feel bad when they don't, so take it out on the players/team if they're not winning.
No! We are not "haters" because "she stopped meeting our expectations". It's perfectly fine to lose. We are "haters" because Mary Cain is highly conceited and blames everyone else for her own shortcomings but never mommy and daddy or herself. Mary Cain has just been jumping from one "Look at me! Look at me!" thing to another to try to be the center of attention, really sad when you notice it. Just look at what she did with "Atalanta" and calling herself CEO. There's more Instagram posts and photos of herself in magazine interviews than races they've done. And there are still only 2 runners in that whole club. It's like Mary Cain simply got bored of Atalanta when it didn't bring enough attention to herself and now she is abandoning it in order to pretend to be into triathlon to try being center of attention there.
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