Would Newbury Park have won D3?

Let's try again. No. It wouldn't have been close. Their 5th man would score more than the entire PP team so it would not be close. Imagine you are running high school cross country and your team wins the conference meet going 1-2-3-6-10. Another team finishes 2nd going 4-5-7-8-25 and they keep telling you how close the score was. Their 5th runner always runs 17:30 while your 5th always runs 16:30. He scored 25 at the conference meet while your team score was 22. This is what some of you are doing in respect to NP. They are great but they would lose to at least a handful of D3 teams in a large meet.

Engineer of Plates wrote:

Let's try again. No. It wouldn't have been close. Their 5th man would score more than the entire PP team so it would not be close. Imagine you are running high school cross country and your team wins the conference meet going 1-2-3-6-10. Another team finishes 2nd going 4-5-7-8-25 and they keep telling you how close the score was. Their 5th runner always runs 17:30 while your 5th always runs 16:30. He scored 25 at the conference meet while your team score was 22. This is what some of you are doing in respect to NP. They are great but they would lose to at least a handful of D3 teams in a large meet.

22-49 is not a close CC score.

So now you are in agreement that a bunch of weaselly high schoolers could possibly be 6th at a college National meet?

It doesn't matter if they could be 6th. Or 10th or 23rd.

The question was would they have WON.

No. They would not have.

Glad you finally agree that those scores are not close. PP scored 80. NP would score over 200. Now do you see why saying they would be close to winning is silly? Have I said that they would be outside of the top 10? I think I have stuck with around 8th. 250 would have been 8th.

Newbury Park would win NCAA D2. Guarantee no D2 team could keep up 1-4 with NP in cross country at least over 5k. They will have four under 14 on the track.

Also as more proof just wait to see how fast these guys will run on an actual fast xc course this weekend. Im guessing a 14:25 average 1-5.

I wish we could have had them run in that meet to see how they really could have done. If I recall correctly their 5th man was what a 9:10 3200 guy or faster? I'll give them 3rd or 4th, and higher if their 5th runs a lifetime PR!!

The mistake that everyone is making is that they see Nicos 13:50 and think that’s as fast as he could run in high school. Whereas if you look at his indoor 3k and combine that with his xc dominance he definitely could have run about 13:30 his senior year. (Reference iaaf scoring tables)

This year NP will have 5 under 14:00 (or equivalent 3200 m times) and will have 4 sub 13:40 I’m the 5000m on the track (or equivalent 3200m)

There is no way that loses to any d2 or d3 school and is likely a top 15 d1 program

Just to drive the point home more consider this fact.

Nico Young ran 7:56.97 his senior year in his only 3k of his shortened season.

There are only 2 runners in the history of NCAA D2 (Noble and Gidabuday) who have run faster than that.

And there are no NCAA D3 runners faster than that in all of history.

Sahlman and the twins are basically equal with Nico which means they could go 1-2-3 at nationals in both D2 or D3.

interesting logic. Net you will tell us that a high school kid running 1:49 in the 800 would have to be faster at 3k than a college guy.

Things you are ignoring. Starting with the more minor stuff:

1) Many of the best D3 runners ran on flat tracks indoors or weren't aggressively chasing a 3k record like Nico

2) the Superspikes help and you can conservatively say 4-5 seconds over 3k is fair

3) Nico literally ran 13:44 for the 5,000 in a setup race. It's a great and fair mark.

Now more major stuff:

4)The race is not a 3K, not a 3200 and not a track 5,000. It is an 8K on grass that will be 23-26 minutes for these guys

5) They have been running 60mpw training for a 15min race. They will be less conditioned for the race than most of the top 100, yes some talent/speed can overcome that but you are stretching it the longer the race.

6) There is context to every XC time. Extrapolating that every top-4 NP guy will run sub 13:40 because they're running Nico's times...I mean come on. Track is different than XC, and it will shake out differently for every athlete how they perform.

Admittedly, I am painting the most positive version of the truth on the NP team. They probably won’t have four under 13:40 this year, but I believe their talent isn’t that far off this either.

Everyone brings up the fact that this is 8k, but how many D3 runners do you know averaging 5:09 at altitude for a four mile continuous tempo? That is truly elite, especially when you don’t live at altitude.

https://youtu.be/uWVpKy1zuJQ

Engineer of Plates wrote:

interesting logic. Net you will tell us that a high school kid running 1:49 in the 800 would have to be faster at 3k than a college guy.

3k is much closer to 8k than 800 is to 3k in terms of the skills you need to have to be successful.

Try naming one 3000 meter runner who has broken 7:30 who you don’t think could break 27:30 for 10k on the track in the right conditions.

On the other hand I think most elite sub 1:44 guys could not break 7:50 for 3k.

perfect cell wrote:

Everyone brings up the fact that this is 8k, but how many D3 runners do you know averaging 5:09 at altitude for a four mile continuous tempo? That is truly elite, especially when you don’t live at altitude.

Well not many are going to altitude. But yes all of these guys in the top 30 or so could do this once acclimated to altitude. They're all very strong aerobically.

I seriously doubt this.

OK, so now we have reached the stupid, stupid, point that the top guys on NP are fast and would finish very high in the field.

NOBODY CARES!

They could finish 1, 2, 3, 4 (which they would not) and they are STILL going to lose.

Fast guys, getting low sticks, can't make up for the problem of a number five that just can't get it done.

But their top 4 are so fast that they can beat some guys who didn't go D1 and that is impressive to some posters. I beat a fast woman from my office in a road race on Saturday and I bragged to everyone about it but they weren't impressed either. Maybe the NP fanboys will understand the analogy.

40 seconds x5/3 = 67 seconds that would be the new spread.

Since NPs top 3 would all be very close to 23:15 based off of course conversions.

That would put NPs 5th man around 24:22 which is 35points for a total of 45points (including the NP boys) You then need to add 10 points to every teams score. Which puts PP at 90 points

NP wins 45 to 90

Where tf are you getting 23:15 from? Actually kind of observe you think these guys would all be close to that in ante same race. Has to be a troll.

Engineer of Plates wrote:

But their top 4 are so fast that they can beat some guys who didn't go D1 and that is impressive to some posters. I beat a fast woman from my office in a road race on Saturday and I bragged to everyone about it but they weren't impressed either. Maybe the NP fanboys will understand the analogy.

Their top 4 guys are so fast that they could beat ALL guys who didn’t go D1.