Predicting 51.0 at the 400 for the pacer with IngBros at 51.5.
Predicting 51.0 at the 400 for the pacer with IngBros at 51.5.
David Torrence ran 2:16.76 indoors and 1:45.14 outdoors.
David Krummenacker ran 2:15.97 and 2:16.63 1k with 1:43.92 and 1:43.95 the same year as the 2:15.97.
Peter Snell ran 1:44.3 in 1962 and 2:16 in 1964.
Well, no time for a thorough go-through here but Filip looks to me like a guy who can run sub 1:45.
ex-runner wrote:
objectiveobserver wrote:
You have proved nothing and you are immune to reasoning!
Otherwise you would understand the above statistics!
You are immune to understanding, it seems.
Please tell me when Jakob will run faster than 1:45? Him and the brothers only run one 800 every 3-5 years.
Are you serious ex-runner? You haven't yet realized who you're replying to?
I will give you a couple of hints:
A history of pretending to be a non-native English speaker, he even admitted it.
And yet, a non-native English speaker who makes lots of mistakes in his posts suddenly comes up with this sentence?
objectiveobserver wrote:
Do you have some arguments for your postulate?
The usual top-3:
objectiveobserver wrote:
Steve Ovett. age 17 1:47.34; age 22 1:44.09
Seb Coe. age 20 1:44.95; age 24 1:41.73
Steve Cram. age 20 1:46.29; age 24 1:42.88
An obsession with showing off a supposed degree and expertise in logic:
objectiveobserver wrote:
Do you have a master degree in logic?
lol
You are being trolled.
9/10 Arthur ;)
objectiveobserver wrote:
No I just think much like Jakob's current 800m PB is 1:49 but he has run 3:30 in the 1500m, Jakob will continue to infrequently race the 800m. This will mean he doesn't get much practice at the event, and with his lack of basic speed will not get the opportunity to break 1:45.
Henrik is 29. His PB is 3:31 and his 800m PB remains at 1:48.
Filip is 27. His PB is 3:30.01, the fastest of them all. His 800m PB remains at 1:47.8.
Basically, Gjert doesn't have them race the 800 often, doesn't do the speed or lactic work required. The focus of their training is on endurance. He clearly doesn't see the value of the 800 for the 1500m or he doesn't care about it. That's probably not gonna change.
------------------------------------
You can´t compare Jakob´s 800 PB at 16 with his 1500m PB at 18! At 16 Jakob ran 3:40 in the 1500m!
You can´t compare Jakob with Henrik and Filip since Jakob (also in the 800m) has been so much better that his older brothers. As Jakob has been much better than almost all toprunners according to the following statistics (note that I have added a number of runners to my earlier post!):
Steve Ovett. age 17 1:47.34; age 22 1:44.09
Seb Coe. age 20 1:44.95; age 24 1:41.73
Steve Cram. age 20 1:46.29; age 24 1:42.88
El-Guerrouj. age 20 1;47.18
Marcin Lewandowski. age 17 1:51.73; age 19 1.46.69; age 28 1:43.72; age 32 1:43.74
T. Makhloufi. age 21 1:49.40; age 28 1:42.61
Centrowitz. age 20 1:51.40; age 25 1:44.62
Elijah Manangoi. age 22 1:47.40; age 25 1:44.15
Craig Engels. age 16 1:55.37; age 19 1: 51.03; age 25 1:44.63
Jake Wightman. age 18 1:52.16; age 19 1:48.01: age 24 1:44.61
Timothy: age 18 1:45.92; age 23 1;43.11
Kalle Berglund. age 16 1:58.39; age 19 1:46.85; age 22 1:46.63
Drew Hunter. age 16 1:59.55; age 18 1:48.64; age 20 1:48.57
Josh Kerr. age 16 1:53.80; age 19 1:48.05; age 21 1:45.35
Medhi Baala: age 17 1.49.62; age 19 1:49.71; age 23 1:43.15
Mo Farah: age 19 1:51.97; age 25 1:48.25
Souleiman. age 18 1:51.78; age 19 1:47.45; age 22 1:42.97
Iguider. age 17 1:49.65; age 19 1:48.00; age 28 1:46.67
Nick Symmonds. age 19 1:49.51; age 28 1:42.95
Duane Solomon. age 17 1:51.76; age 19 1:47.45; age 27 1:42.82
Henrik Ingebrigtsen. age 16 1:54.26; age 19 1:50.84; age 23 1:48.09
Filip Ingebrigtsen. age 17 1:54.65; age 19 1:50.52; age 23 1:47.79
Jakob Ingebrigtsen. age 14 1:52.60; age 15 1:51.07; age 16 1:49.40; age 19 ???
From this statistics you can at least conclude 2 things
1.Jakob was far better in his mid teens than almost all the above mentioned top runners. Only Ovett, Coe and Timothy seem to be close or better (even though we don´t know their early teen times)
2. Every single toprunner has improved significantly up into their twenties and some even into their late twenties.
And I will ask as before on these pages: Why should Jakob develop differently?
By the way: I think Filip could set PB with 1.5- 2 seconds tuesday. But I maintain that Jakob will run faster than Filip.
Your list is almost completely 800/1500 runners. No crap Duane Solomon’s 800 PR improved, he ran it 80 times.
Only Farah and the Ingebrigtsen brothers are solid comparisons, and their 800 PRs stagnated because they were too busy racing 1500/5k to lower them - which is what others are saying too.
I hope Jacob runs the 800 a few times this year. He COULD knock his PR much further down. He just probably won’t have the opportunity. Similar to his 2k. He could drop below 4:50, but I hope the pandemic ends and we all get back to the usual circuit (no 2ks haha).
Gotta hand it to the Ingebrigtsens for giving us consistent action.
Lion belt wrote:
Subway Surfers wrote:
Jakob got smacked in the 5,000m in Doha because...... it was in Doha. It was a home race, in a climate they know well. Ethiopians always do really good in the middle eastern road races. Doha in Oct is way different from Norway. Doha is way different from St Moritz too. FYI a very close friend ran a distance event in Doha.
That is a lame excuse. The whole stadium in Doha was cooled down. Nobody had any temperature problem in the stadium.
Only the marathoners and eacewalkers suffered because they ran outside.
Ok, I'll explain it so that even you can understand. Ethiopians spent September at home, at altitude, doping and then flying to a friendly climate and then smoke everyone. Very simple you imbecile.
Ian Stewart at a coaching conference said that he saw Mo run a 1:45 time trial in the period before he moved to Oregon to train with Salazar.
Subway Surfers wrote:
Lion belt wrote:
That is a lame excuse. The whole stadium in Doha was cooled down. Nobody had any temperature problem in the stadium.
Only the marathoners and eacewalkers suffered because they ran outside.
Ok, I'll explain it so that even you can understand. Ethiopians spent September at home, at altitude, doping and then flying to a friendly climate and then smoke everyone. Very simple you imbecile.
Don't pay attention to this racist imbecile, Lion belt.
So, commenters keep trying to reason back from Jakobs's 1500 and 2k/5k times what they believe he will run for the 800 - as though he were an equivalent level 2-lap runner. He isn't. And most 2-lap runners don't compete at the same level over the longer distances.
Of course Jakob has endurance but a 2-lap time in the region of 1.45 or below requires speed also. He doesn't have it. Not that kind of speed.
It'll be interesting to see the responses after the race on Tuesday. Some posters will be eating crow.
What’s the point of a 1500? I am sure there are reasons what he is doing has a purpose. He is not a hobby jogger. 800m building speed. 2000m 5k roads build strength. No real competition now so it makes sense what he is doing
People it’s not important for him to be at the top of his game right now so even if he runs 1:46 if he is at peak form he probably could run 1:44
LateRunnerPhil wrote:
ex-runner wrote:
Nobody thinks that. Everyone expects a 3:30 guy to run 1:45 it's just about the minimum required.
The 3 runners who crushed him in Doha 1500 final last year:
Cheruiyot 3:28.41 - 1:43.11
Makhloufi 3:28.75 - 1:42.61
Lewandowski 3:31.46 - 1:43.72
Ingebrigtsen 3:30.16 - 1:49.4
Do people here really think he got the speed to run 1:43? All of these runners crush him speed-wise. This race will show how slow-twitch he is, already looking forward to the excuses when he fails to even run sub 1:45, which runners like Centro and even Engels have done. PR means nothing when his PR is only 1:49 (as 3:30 guy!), but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even break 1:46.
You would have made the same argument about Alan Webb prior to 2007. Both Jakob and Filip are capable of sub 1:45, no question, but it's going to take more than a single race to get there. They'll be in the 1:45 - 1:46 range on Tuesday.
they aren't slow wrote:
LateRunnerPhil wrote:
The 3 runners who crushed him in Doha 1500 final last year:
Cheruiyot 3:28.41 - 1:43.11
Makhloufi 3:28.75 - 1:42.61
Lewandowski 3:31.46 - 1:43.72
Ingebrigtsen 3:30.16 - 1:49.4
Do people here really think he got the speed to run 1:43? All of these runners crush him speed-wise. This race will show how slow-twitch he is, already looking forward to the excuses when he fails to even run sub 1:45, which runners like Centro and even Engels have done. PR means nothing when his PR is only 1:49 (as 3:30 guy!), but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even break 1:46.
You would have made the same argument about Alan Webb prior to 2007. Both Jakob and Filip are capable of sub 1:45, no question, but it's going to take more than a single race to get there. They'll be in the 1:45 - 1:46 range on Tuesday.
To be capable of those times they would have competed over those distances. There's good reason they haven't.
To beat 1.45 requires higher basic speed than 3.31 for the 1500. What is the evidence they have that? Can either run close to 48 for 1 lap or 22.5-23 for 200?
macdaddy
I did not write:
"No I just think.............."
Ex-runner did!
My post started at :
"You can´t compare Jakob´s......."
ex-runner wrote:
"Read my post and understand it.
Do you think Henrik could only run 1:48 for 800m at his best? Or Filip only 1:47.8?
No, of course they could have run much faster. But they haven't.
That is what I am saying will happen to Jakob also.
Gjert doesn't have them run the 800. In a perfect race Jakob might break 1:45 one day. He will likely never get the opportunity to do so. This might be his best shot ever in fact, if the pacing is good. "
---------------
First I will apologize that I wrote some harsh words in a former post. That was a mistake. It should have been to ALFRED DE MUSSET.
About Jakob´s 800m. When I predict Jakob can break 1:44 in the future it is of course under the provision that he will run the 800m again under reasonable conditions.
I agree that his brothers possibly can run faster than their present PBs. I have predicted Filip to run 2 seconds faster (around 1:46) tuesday.
I don´t think that Gjert interfere so much in their decisions about which races to run. If Jakob wants to run more 800m races in the future he will be free to do so.
Don't use harsh words when you are out of arguments please. People who set very fast times as teenagers usually don't improve a lot in their twenties.
It's a cold, hard fact.
Armstronglivs wrote:
they aren't slow wrote:
You would have made the same argument about Alan Webb prior to 2007. Both Jakob and Filip are capable of sub 1:45, no question, but it's going to take more than a single race to get there. They'll be in the 1:45 - 1:46 range on Tuesday.
To be capable of those times they would have competed over those distances. There's good reason they haven't.
To beat 1.45 requires higher basic speed than 3.31 for the 1500. What is the evidence they have that? Can either run close to 48 for 1 lap or 22.5-23 for 200?
Like I told Phil, you would have made the same argument about Alan Webb in 2006 if anyone told you he was capable of sub-1:44 (or sub-1:45 even). It's the same logic ignorant people use when they suggest El G was only good for 1:45.
Can you reword your statement regarding basic speed? It isn't very clear what you're trying to say.
they aren't slow wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
To be capable of those times they would have competed over those distances. There's good reason they haven't.
To beat 1.45 requires higher basic speed than 3.31 for the 1500. What is the evidence they have that? Can either run close to 48 for 1 lap or 22.5-23 for 200?
Like I told Phil, you would have made the same argument about Alan Webb in 2006 if anyone told you he was capable of sub-1:44 (or sub-1:45 even). It's the same logic ignorant people use when they suggest El G was only good for 1:45.
Can you reword your statement regarding basic speed? It isn't very clear what you're trying to say.
Basic speed is a term from Lydiard. It refers to the sprint capability of athlete over a sustained distance. His measure was 200. He believed basic speed determined the event an athlete was best suited to. An 800 runner requires a higher basic speed than an athlete competitive at a longer distance.
Typically a sub-1.45 runner over 800 would require sub-23 speed over 200 and hence sub-49 over 400. (Snell was a 22-low 200 runner, as was Ryun, and Walker was near that. All were sub-1.45). As middle distance athletes go, most sub-1.45 runners are fast, in terms of their basic speed. The Ingebrigstens don't have that kind of speed. That is one of the reasons they rarely race the distance.
I would guess 23-48-1:45
Slow is okay wrote:
I would guess 23-48-1:45
Close. To run 48 you would probably have to be sub-23.