Current predictit odds:
Impeachment: 77% likely
Trump not completing his first term (death, removal, resignation): 33% likely
Current predictit odds:
Impeachment: 77% likely
Trump not completing his first term (death, removal, resignation): 33% likely
Sally Vix wrote:
muh gubment wrote:
Why would he do that if there's supposedly going to be a peaceful transition in 2 weeks?
If what transpired this week had occurred two months ago shortly after the election the pressure to remove Trump either by impeachment and conviction or by the 25th would be enormous. Absolutely enormous. With only 12 days remaining there are too many legislators unwilling to go down that extreme path and will allow him to run out the clock.
You have it the other way around.
Trollminator wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Well, that is probably technically true, but in this context we have to go with what he has said publicly. He has carried Trump's water for 4 years, and especially so the last 2. This attempt to distance himself from his enabling now is too little too late.
Part of me believes that actually may help. It's hard to see Pence as having been anything other than trump's lapdog, so if he's making this move then it means trump's mental state must be at unbearably dangerous levels.
My bad, thought I was responding to a post about Pence.
Sally Vix wrote:
Trollminator's long-winded (next time give us the abridged version) statement encapsulated:. Blah, blah, blah, blah,blah, blah. Or to put more succinctly GIBBERISH.
For what it's worth, the thing I find most disappointing about this forum is the consistent failure of anyone on the right to engage in substantial discussion. Trollminator posts a lot of stuff that I could do without, but this post was detailed and thoughful. Something that I for one would like to see more of.
What's the rule on the 25th? I read VP plus 8/15 cabinet heads.
3 cabinet resignations in the last days. 2 were already interims.
Probably really complicated by that. Is it a majority of those who remain or does it have to be 8? Getting 8/10 or 8/12 (if interims get to participate) seems unlikely.
Maybe deVos etc al are leaving for just that reason.
agip wrote:
Current predictit odds:
Impeachment: 77% likely
Trump not completing his first term (death, removal, resignation): 33% likely
Resignation absolutely will not happen under any circumstance.
There are four ways an authoritarian leaves office:
1. Dies in office
2. Thrown in prison*
3. Flees to exile
4. Taken out back and shot
* The arrest might not happen on January 20th, but if he doesn't flee it will happen relatively soon.
It's funny to look back at how may people used to tell me that #1 was the only possibility for Trump. Nobody says that now.
Interesting dynamic going on...the profesh Rs are running away from Trump at full anaerobic speeds. Ear, pocket, ear, pocket.
But the R house members are not. Which means the Trumpist base are not running away from trump. The R house members are very close to the trumpists in the field. The ones who vote in primaries and wear fur outfits with Odin tattoos.
The R civil war will commence.
(CNN)Former White House communications director Alyssa Farah said Friday that President Donald Trump lied to the American people about the 2020 presidential election results and said that he should "seriously consider" resigning from office after Wednesday's deadly insurrection at the US Capitol.
Farah said on CNN's "New Day" that she holds Trump responsible for inciting the mob that stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to stop Congress' certification of President-elect Joe Biden's Electoral College win and allowing this "lie to take a life of its own that the election might be overturned."
Asked by CNN's John Berman if she would feel safer today if Trump resigned and Vice President Mike Pence took over, Farah replied, "I would."
"I think that it's something (Trump) should seriously consider," she said. "I don't think that -- when you've got just a number of days left -- there's any need to carry on kind of the charade of an impeachment."
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
Current predictit odds:
Impeachment: 77% likely
Trump not completing his first term (death, removal, resignation): 33% likely
Resignation absolutely will not happen under any circumstance.
There are four ways an authoritarian leaves office:
1. Dies in office
2. Thrown in prison*
3. Flees to exile
4. Taken out back and shot
* The arrest might not happen on January 20th, but if he doesn't flee it will happen relatively soon.
It's funny to look back at how may people used to tell me that #1 was the only possibility for Trump. Nobody says that now.
Maggie Haberman's view is that now Trump is on full 'keep me out of jail' mode. That's the only thing that frightens him, apparently. It's all he's thinking about now.
So maybe his excellent lizard survival skills will kick in and he'll start maneouvering for a deal to get out of jail. Resignation might be one of those deals.
Remember Trump has been caught criming multiple times and has lived a life of crime for 50 years. He knows how to survive.
agip wrote:
Current predictit odds:
Impeachment: 77% likely
Trump not completing his first term (death, removal, resignation): 33% likely
33% chance that I will be proven correct (again). I say the odds are much higher.
Trollminator wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I gotta say, Agip, there is some truth in your assessment. I never thought Trump supporters would ever do what they did Wednesday storming the Capitol. But those who did do that are rednecks who represent .0001% of the Republican party. The rest would not in a million years advocate doing such a thing. And if Biden had lost I DO think there would have been looting and rioting but again only by the fringe elements of the Dem party, i.e., Antifa and BLM and similar such groups.
Trumpers everywhere have been calling for desperate measures. That is a drunk statement from you. It is at least 10% of the R party. These people have convinced themselves they are required to protect the king (aka their hope to keep their country).
Since Sally is a math genius, he would know that .0001% is one in a million. Given 74 million persons voted for Trump a few months back, his estimate is 74 Republicans at most would do such a thing.
This makes it difficult to explain how the 500 Capitol police on site were unable to turn them away.
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Resignation absolutely will not happen under any circumstance.
There are four ways an authoritarian leaves office:
1. Dies in office
2. Thrown in prison*
3. Flees to exile
4. Taken out back and shot
* The arrest might not happen on January 20th, but if he doesn't flee it will happen relatively soon.
It's funny to look back at how may people used to tell me that #1 was the only possibility for Trump. Nobody says that now.
Maggie Haberman's view is that now Trump is on full 'keep me out of jail' mode. That's the only thing that frightens him, apparently. It's all he's thinking about now.
So maybe his excellent lizard survival skills will kick in and he'll start maneouvering for a deal to get out of jail. Resignation might be one of those deals.
Remember Trump has been caught criming multiple times and has lived a life of crime for 50 years. He knows how to survive.
Resignation doesn't help at all. And we've been through this before. There is no legal means for someone to give him a "get out of jail free card" in exchange for a resignation.
I've been saying this for a few years now. Under no circumstances will Trump resign.
His most likely path is exile if someone will take him.
Fat hurts wrote:
His most likely path is exile if someone will take him.
And I still think Turkey his best shot. It has a nice symmetry to it.
Erdoğan hosts the man responsible for a coup in the in U.S. while he claims that we are hosting the man responsible for a coup in Turkey.
Monkeys typing wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Trumpers everywhere have been calling for desperate measures. That is a drunk statement from you. It is at least 10% of the R party. These people have convinced themselves they are required to protect the king (aka their hope to keep their country).
Since Sally is a math genius, he would know that .0001% is one in a million. Given 74 million persons voted for Trump a few months back, his estimate is 74 Republicans at most would do such a thing.
This makes it difficult to explain how the 500 Capitol police on site were unable to turn them away.
Ummm... Ever heard of the Alamo?
seattle prattle wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
An experiment was held to determine whether a reality T.V. host could become a good POTUS and the results seem to indicate the answer is no.
Not in the eyes of his followers. Until you come to grips with that, you will never begin fixing the deep rooted sentiment that allowed him to come to power and maintain the loyalty of a vast swatch of the country.
Seems a bit of false sophistication. Most importantly - and relevantly - "bad behavior" (e.g., supporting a malevolent autocrat) CAN simply be because one lacks morals/ethics. It need not be because of some deeper internal and/or external issue. An awful lot of working class, middle class and upper middle class Trump supporters have done just fine in this country. And YET they STILL support him. By extension, it's perfectly possible that many of his less "successful" supporters support him because they lack ethics/morals. Yet the smarty pants are eager to rush to semi-excuse - or at least "explain" - their behavior by blaming their circumstances. Often BS, and largely if not completely irrelevant. A moral/ethical country doesn't semi/implicitly excuse bad behavior because it's "understandable." A fact, perhaps ironically, that conservatives have been complaining about with regard to the left's view of the underclass for decades
Less importantly, politicians and political scientists and sociologists need to worry about getting to possible "root causes." Fellow citizens, observing the behavior of these, yes, deplorables, are under no obligation to search (very possibly in vain) for their "true motivations."
Monkeys typing wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Trumpers everywhere have been calling for desperate measures. That is a drunk statement from you. It is at least 10% of the R party. These people have convinced themselves they are required to protect the king (aka their hope to keep their country).
Since Sally is a math genius, he would know that .0001% is one in a million. Given 74 million persons voted for Trump a few months back, his estimate is 74 Republicans at most would do such a thing.
This makes it difficult to explain how the 500 Capitol police on site were unable to turn them away.
Yeah, Sally's math was wrong. I was being perhaps a bit generous with my kudos to him. STILL, he got the tone of what he said correct...well, except the part I pulled out and criticized.
Monkeys typing wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Trumpers everywhere have been calling for desperate measures. That is a drunk statement from you. It is at least 10% of the R party. These people have convinced themselves they are required to protect the king (aka their hope to keep their country).
Since Sally is a math genius, he would know that .0001% is one in a million. Given 74 million persons voted for Trump a few months back, his estimate is 74 Republicans at most would do such a thing.
This makes it difficult to explain how the 500 Capitol police on site were unable to turn them away.
I'm actually skeptical that even half the people involved in storming the Capitol would even qualify. Look at the pictures - everyone has a smartphone out live streaming the event while posing for pictures, almost like tourists really. Interviews with at least a few people indicate that they themselves didn't even know why they were even on Capitol Hill in the first place or what action they hoped to accomplish.
There were clearly some people who had a mission. The rest just seemed to go along for the ride for lolz, mems, and souvenirs. Very synthetic, very postmodern
Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
this sure reminds me of Sally.
https://twitter.com/iFlyNoWings/status/1346970664985456643?s=20I gotta say, Agip, there is some truth in your assessment. I never thought Trump supporters would ever do what they did Wednesday storming the Capitol. But those who did do that are rednecks who represent .0001% of the Republican party. The rest would not in a million years advocate doing such a thing. And if Biden had lost I DO think there would have been looting and rioting but again only by the fringe elements of the Dem party, i.e., Antifa and BLM and similar such groups.
The stupidity. When you vote for Trump in 2020, you KNOW that you're voting for all of that. He's shown his true self ALL along. And people still ticked his box. You need not have stormed the Capital to have hurt the country. Yes, every Trump voter should be ashamed.
Timmy Treadmore wrote:
What's the rule on the 25th? I read VP plus 8/15 cabinet heads.
3 cabinet resignations in the last days. 2 were already interims.
Probably really complicated by that. Is it a majority of those who remain or does it have to be 8? Getting 8/10 or 8/12 (if interims get to participate) seems unlikely.
Maybe deVos etc al are leaving for just that reason.
I'm not a lawyer, but the language is "majority" which I would take to be majority of those remaining, but it could certainly be interpreted otherwise.
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments . . .
The next phrase I read as the 25th may also be invoked by consent of the VP and a majority of Congress. I'd interpret this as a majority of each of both Houses, but it could be a simple majority of all Senators and Representatives.
. . . or of such other body as Congress . . .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitutionnonequals wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Not in the eyes of his followers. Until you come to grips with that, you will never begin fixing the deep rooted sentiment that allowed him to come to power and maintain the loyalty of a vast swatch of the country.
Seems a bit of false sophistication. Most importantly - and relevantly - "bad behavior" (e.g., supporting a malevolent autocrat) CAN simply be because one lacks morals/ethics. It need not be because of some deeper internal and/or external issue. An awful lot of working class, middle class and upper middle class Trump supporters have done just fine in this country. And YET they STILL support him. By extension, it's perfectly possible that many of his less "successful" supporters support him because they lack ethics/morals. Yet the smarty pants are eager to rush to semi-excuse - or at least "explain" - their behavior by blaming their circumstances. Often BS, and largely if not completely irrelevant. A moral/ethical country doesn't semi/implicitly excuse bad behavior because it's "understandable." A fact, perhaps ironically, that conservatives have been complaining about with regard to the left's view of the underclass for decades
Less importantly, politicians and political scientists and sociologists need to worry about getting to possible "root causes." Fellow citizens, observing the behavior of these, yes, deplorables, are under no obligation to search (very possibly in vain) for their "true motivations."
Behaviors in the American socio-economic and political complex can rarely, if ever, be attributed to something as simple and monolithic as "just bad ethics."
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
Maggie Haberman's view is that now Trump is on full 'keep me out of jail' mode. That's the only thing that frightens him, apparently. It's all he's thinking about now.
So maybe his excellent lizard survival skills will kick in and he'll start maneouvering for a deal to get out of jail. Resignation might be one of those deals.
Remember Trump has been caught criming multiple times and has lived a life of crime for 50 years. He knows how to survive.
Resignation doesn't help at all. And we've been through this before. There is no legal means for someone to give him a "get out of jail free card" in exchange for a resignation.
I've been saying this for a few years now. Under no circumstances will Trump resign.
His most likely path is exile if someone will take him.
The resignation scenario presumes that Pence (or Biden) would agree to pre-emptively pardon Trump in exchange for ala Ford and Nixon. To be clear it's not apparent that Ford made such an agreement rather than issuing the pardon entirely based on his own judgement.