agip wrote:
here's a graph on case counts...pretty clear the US and UK fouled their nests.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Us the table to pick the US, UK, Germany and Sweden, and look at "conformed deaths" [per million]. Sweden never got it right. They are close to the same as the US except for a summer lull in deaths. Only the US did people keep dying of the Trump Virus.
P wrote:
agip wrote:
yeah it looks like the drops in cases and deaths were a xmas mirage. Same thing happened over T-day. Back to the grisly.
We're up to 0.78% of the population vaccinated. After 16 days. Pathetic.
Thanksgiving and Xmas gave little blips that are essentially meaningless. The big picture as far as what is happening at this time and what will happen in the near future is:
1) The rate of acceleration in new cases peaked on or about Nov 17.
2) Percentage increases in new cases have been on a steady decline since then (with meaningless blips at T-Day and Xmas).
3) The increase in new cases declined all the way to zero on or around Xmas Day.
4) From here new cases will be dropping.
5) Deaths will also be dropping shortly. We may have already reached a peak on 7-day deaths. At any rate, weekly deaths will start to drop within a few weeks, maximum.
///
The vaccination effort has indeed been pathetic. It appears that we may be in a race between the vaccine rollout and the spread of the more readily transmissible UK strain. Which of these "wins" will have a HUGE impact on the overall picture come March or so. But neither of these will have any significant impact on the above 5 facts.
P
Thanks for the post. I was going to ask you your thoughts on it since your early predictions were fairly spot on ( though a bit grim).
Its pretty clear daily deaths will be higher for a time due to lag time.
It should be noted that the percentage of those dying after contracting has dropped substantially over the last 9 months.
Hopefully the roll out of the vaccine accelerates over the next few months.
@ the post regarding Trump and a war with Iran. That has some basis. Trump ended his vacation early and is back at the White House, and ...
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/30/nation/us-officials-warn-potential-iran-linked-attack/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/defense-officials-divided-potential-iran-attack/index.html
no page wrote:
@ the post regarding Trump and a war with Iran. That has some basis. Trump ended his vacation early and is back at the White House, and ...
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/30/nation/us-officials-warn-potential-iran-linked-attack/https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/defense-officials-divided-potential-iran-attack/index.html
This effectively tosses the only positive trump policy people have pointed to - that he wouldn't stir up any more international conflicts. His ego is so fragile that he feels the need to do something extra stupid and dangerous to ensure Biden doesn't make much progress negotiating with Iran.
no page wrote:
@ the post regarding Trump and a war with Iran. That has some basis. Trump ended his vacation early and is back at the White House....
The other reason is that he was so annoyed with Melanie's redecoration that he decided to leave. The right's alpha...
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hated-melania-mar-a-lago-redecoration-tear-out-cnn-2020-12?r=DE&IR=TTrollminator wrote:
no page wrote:
@ the post regarding Trump and a war with Iran. That has some basis. Trump ended his vacation early and is back at the White House, and ...
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/30/nation/us-officials-warn-potential-iran-linked-attack/https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/defense-officials-divided-potential-iran-attack/index.htmlThis effectively tosses the only positive trump policy people have pointed to - that he wouldn't stir up any more international conflicts. His ego is so fragile that he feels the need to do something extra stupid and dangerous to ensure Biden doesn't make much progress negotiating with Iran.
Kinda weird that CNN chose to point out that B-52s are "nuclear capable." Hopefully not relevant, although with Trump, well........
CountChocula wrote:
This is an interesting point that I have thought about quite a bit myself. North Dakota (and some other states) saw huge increases this fall in the number of cases, followed by huge increases in the number of deaths. But for the past few weeks ND has seen a big decline in cases (and deaths, to an extent). What might be the cause? The introduction of a mask mandate? A change in people's behavior? Fewer people getting tested?
I'm not advocating for any particular viewpoint; just think it's worth discussing.
ND's test positivity numbers (# positive / # new tests), were, by a wide margin the highest in the country (close to 80% at one point) so we can discount widespread testing for the increase. At present, they're still at about 50% so they don't appear to be doing much asymptomatic testing and can't be doing contact tracing with those kinds of numbers.
I think the only plausible reasons for the decline is a change in behavior, whether by mandate or widespread personal choice or some level of (regional?) herd immunity. The rational for the former is that North Dakota is a pretty sparsely populated state so even a minimal effort to socially distance could have a large effect. The case for herd immunity is that 15% of the state population has had a documented positive test and the state apparently wasn't doing much asymptomatic testing, thus the infection rate is certainly higher than the documented case rate and plausibly several times higher.
Rack-Ette wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Experts thought we would do what was necessary to defeat the virus. We didn't.
Instead, Americans decided to take the route of death and suffering. It was a very bad choice.
The nations who chose to embrace reality are flourishing while we continue to die.
Which nations are "flourishing?" New Zealand maybe? Good for them.
This has been a global crisis. Europe just shut down all over again because people over there care even less than they do here in the US, which seems to be flourishing pretty well (depending on how you measure that) despite the fact that a bunch of people are dying.
That is not accurate. European countries remained mostly open from the spring until late November which is the biggest reason for the current spike. It's not because they care even less. Besides the UK and partly France there is no political crisis over COVID and the public is adhering to government measures. The US has been a political and public health disaster since the start of the crisis.
Runningart2004 wrote:
It ebbs and flows and is predictable. We will shoot up again because of Christmas/New Years gatherings. We will hit our peak in 2-3 weeks, then start to drop down significantly as more and more folks get vaccinated.
Alan
Unless... the irresponsible Republicans and citizens decide that especially since a vaccine is on its way it means people should definitely do whatever the fk they want.
nonequals wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
This effectively tosses the only positive trump policy people have pointed to - that he wouldn't stir up any more international conflicts. His ego is so fragile that he feels the need to do something extra stupid and dangerous to ensure Biden doesn't make much progress negotiating with Iran.
Kinda weird that CNN chose to point out that B-52s are "nuclear capable." Hopefully not relevant, although with Trump, well........
Trump: "Yeah, wiping out Iran will make people remember me forever."
15_50 wrote:
P wrote:
Thanksgiving and Xmas gave little blips that are essentially meaningless. The big picture as far as what is happening at this time and what will happen in the near future is:
1) The rate of acceleration in new cases peaked on or about Nov 17.
2) Percentage increases in new cases have been on a steady decline since then (with meaningless blips at T-Day and Xmas).
3) The increase in new cases declined all the way to zero on or around Xmas Day.
4) From here new cases will be dropping.
5) Deaths will also be dropping shortly. We may have already reached a peak on 7-day deaths. At any rate, weekly deaths will start to drop within a few weeks, maximum.
///
The vaccination effort has indeed been pathetic. It appears that we may be in a race between the vaccine rollout and the spread of the more readily transmissible UK strain. Which of these "wins" will have a HUGE impact on the overall picture come March or so. But neither of these will have any significant impact on the above 5 facts.
P
Thanks for the post. I was going to ask you your thoughts on it since your early predictions were fairly spot on ( though a bit grim).
Its pretty clear daily deaths will be higher for a time due to lag time.
It should be noted that the percentage of those dying after contracting has dropped substantially over the last 9 months.
Hopefully the roll out of the vaccine accelerates over the next few months.
I am very hopeful about the vaccines now that a sane administration will be in place.
Fingers crossed.
Meanwhile, we have an idiot Senator Hawley from MO. He made an oath to follow the US Constitution. It states that we the people will have a smooth transition of administrations. Hawley and Trump equal TREASON !!
Trollminator wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hated-melania-mar-a-lago-redecoration-tear-out-cnn-2020-12?r=DE&IR=T
What? "Trump berated resort management"?!?
Wait--have we found SV's true identity?
kibitzer wrote:
[quote]Trollminator wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hated-melania-mar-a-lago-redecoration-tear-out-cnn-2020-12?r=DE&IR=T
"Trump has yet to publicly outline his post-presidency plans." I'm very much looking forward to his memoir of the presidential years.
I wonder whether he'll read it?
kibitzer wrote:
kibitzer wrote:
[quote]Trollminator wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hated-melania-mar-a-lago-redecoration-tear-out-cnn-2020-12?r=DE&IR=T"Trump has yet to publicly outline his post-presidency plans." I'm very much looking forward to his memoir of the presidential years.
I wonder whether he'll read it?
I wonder if he'll lose 100lbs and run a 3-hour marathon.
P wrote:
Monkeys typing wrote:
"Heading down sharply" is probably an artifact of the holiday slowdown in testing and processing death reports. On the other hand, new cases have been pretty flat for the last two weeks so there's reason to be hopeful that the upward trend is done and we may be heading down, if not sharply, in the near future.
This ^
We are at the peak right now and will be heading down in the near future. We have likely seen the worst of COVID 19.
Welp. This post didn't age well. LOL
This is going to be beautiful to watch. Dems will use this for a very long time.
https://twitter.com/ok_dumbass/status/1344734119570374657?s=21
LOLz looks like Mitch has a little problem
https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1344727635000229890?s=21