johnny99 wrote:
If the Republican Party continues to tear itself apart, the Dems gains may not be so short term.
I think you underestimate the Democrats' ability to turn on each other once in power which is inherent in a diverse coalition party. The Republicans will simply unify against a common bogeyman, mostly Kamala Harris.
No way he gest arrested on January 21.
For one, it wouldn't look on Biden or Democrats if that happened.
Jailing your political enemies without due process.
They would need to carefully compile a lot of evidence and present that to the public.
He was totally guilty of what he was impeached for and got away with that.
The state of New York could arrest him right away but I don't see that happening at this high a profile.
Maybe he doesn't want to risk it and jets off to a "vacation" right away.
I would call that fleeing and say your call was right.
Fat hurts wrote:
L L wrote:
Are you saying he flees before January 20?
My question is what is he going to do over the next 4 weeks.
Does he actually pack up his belongings and move them out of the White House or are we looking at an eviction?
I seriously wonder that.
He may sit in the Oval Office while Biden is being sworn in and then say "move me."
He is facing prosecution, but that will take time- maybe years to even get to trial.
He certainly won't be arrested the next day.
I think he flees on or before January 20th. Clearly, he was already thinking about leaving the country if he lost. So why would he stick around and risk getting arrested before he can get to his exile?
Unless he gets charged with first degree murder, he'll post bail in about 5 minutes.
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
disagree...he'll skunk off to Florida and whine over twitter for two years until he starts running again.
Do you think he would be able to do that without facing criminal prosecution?
it will take years and years to hurt trump criminally. we've seen how he uses the courts to stall any attacks on him. He will try to do the same.
But if he isn't able to stall the prosecution for 3 years, then sure, that would slow the trump 2024 train down.
must-read story on what is going on in the white house.
things are escalating - trump is a cornered animal and will lash out in some ugly and damaging way. Pence and McConnell are now out of trumpworld.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
Trump's chances in 2024? Let's say Biden has to deal with some stuff, support is like lukewarm. What happens? No way Kamala should run, she's just not that great.
Trump by 2024 is gonna be completely off the deep end, he'll just say whatever he wants.
Luckily, the news media should learn to completely get him out of the spotlight. Don't mention his tweets etc. That will cool things down a lot.
I don't see Trump running in 2024. He's now done as a candidate.
He'll be older, fatter, slower, more confused. His work ethic will be even less than what it is now. He'll miss the power, but he won't miss having the NYT and WP constantly knocking him, and being the front page on CNN (not in a good way) every day.
He'll enjoy playing golf and making money however he can. Speeches, books, appearances, autograph sessions. He'll realize that, on balance, he doesn't miss the White House all that much. He can retain some degree of public visibility through TV or radio appearances, maybe a weekly spot on FOX. While not as good as being the number one story every day as he has been over the past four years, it will be good enough when considering he doesn't have to deal with all the work it takes to be President.
Of course, he might end up being preoccupied with legal issues over the next few years, or developing significant health problems. Those would be more reason for him to stay on the sidelines.
And I don't see him leaving the country to avoid prosecution. His mindset is that all of these investigations are politics and he can beat them. Just pay his lawyers enough and they'll go away eventually. He might be right, too.
L L wrote:
No way he gest arrested on January 21.
For one, it wouldn't look on Biden or Democrats if that happened.
Jailing your political enemies without due process.
They would need to carefully compile a lot of evidence and present that to the public.
He was totally guilty of what he was impeached for and got away with that.
The state of New York could arrest him right away but I don't see that happening at this high a profile.
Maybe he doesn't want to risk it and jets off to a "vacation" right away.
I would call that fleeing and say your call was right.
Trump is not getting arrested any time soon.
My feeling is that there will be no federal criminal prosecution of Trump. Such a prosecution will always be tainted as political in nature, and the optics of prosecuting a political opponent are not good, even if the prosecution is justified. Also, I think Biden's attitude will be to move forward and put the past behind us, so I doubt he's all that interested in prosecuting Trump.
Trump's greatest criminal threat comes from the NY DA's office and their tax/business/banking fraud investigation. That case would have to be presented to a grand jury first, and an indictment would be issued. At that point, Trump could be arrested, although he would undoubtedly turn himself in voluntarily. I don't know how strong or how serious the potential charges could be, but with Trump's strategy of relentless delay and legal maneuvering, I could see a plea deal a few years from now that keeps Trump out of jail and allows him to pay a hefty fine and be done with it. Someone who is more familiar with white collar crime would have more insight into whether Trump stands a real chance of jailtime from the NY DA's investigation.
Also, if Trump ever went to trial, he would stand a decent shot of getting acquitted, even in NYC. He'd have very good lawyers, and celebrities are not easy to convict.
Flagpole wrote:
JDom wrote:
Ummm. Ever heard of Flagpole?
;-)
Hmm. Nope. I am not the best poster on this thread. I am almost certainly the best PERSON on this thread, fake ego notwithstanding.
There is only one person who can claim the best poster on this thread, and that is:
Trollminator
It's without question also. He is right pretty much all the time, he correctly berates (notice that I know what that word means Sally, unlike you...well, you might know now) people here who need it, and he does it strongly enough. Some of you don't go far enough in tearing down the nonsense from some of the posters here. Trollminator is also a constant. I come and go at my whim as I am a whimsical sort. Trollminator also doesn't use too many parenthetical statements like I do.
So, the best poster is Trollminator...without question.
I cannot accept that FP - it's a bunch of you who really post with substance. My stamina has gone up for sure but a lot of it is drive-bys. As far as this thread goes, the liberals have won without question, which this time happens to be also a huge win for the US despite what 74m brainwashed people might believe. We didn't mean this to be an us vs them situation, but the trumpers here gave us no choice. The chronic stupidity and ignorance displayed by Igy, biff and sally calls for nothing but berating.
As far as the thread, I enjoy your posts and that of the long timers like Fats and agip, but also the newer posters that have engaged here since the summer. I wouldn't mind Sally if not for the tendency to use really poor trolling tactics.
I've spent more time on Parler since the election. It's been an interesting experiment engaging distraught tzees there. It's like these people have lost all hope and it's a free for all to feed them new scapegoats and motivation. I've helped organize 3 boycott the vote events in GA and am in regular contact with a big m/aga donor there who really believes it was all stolen from trump and even has paid a private investigator to look into election fraud in Cobb county and Atlanta. These people are not very organized but they are very motivated. The ones I engage with post pictures of themselves in pro-trump events every week. Many seem to be retired, but there are a lot of young angry white guys with no direction.
I've donated a lot of money to Dems in the past but honestly this kind of covert operation will likely go much further than sending cash to some campaign who isn't likely to connect with anyone on the other side. Parler is a bit of a bubble right now, but there is a growing feeling that it's possible for Dems to take the 2 seats in GA. A lot of trumpers are not giving up hope openly, but they are looking to retaliate against the GOP knowing that Biden will inevitably reside in the WH soon. They feel conned by the GOP and that is a big step. I'm actually hoping they don't catch on the Don con the way things are going. If the GOP doesn't fill that anxiety and anger gap soon enough they will be in trouble.
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Once again, there are four ways an authoritarian like Trump leaves office:
1. Dies in office
2. Thrown in prison
3. Flees to exile.
4. Taken out back and shot.
So many scoffed at the idea above, but it's all playing out the way I anticipated. I still think #3 is the most likely scenario.
Of course, #2 wouldn't happen until some time after January 20th. But I don't think he's just going to wait around to be arrested. So he'll pick #3 because it's the one that most protects his ego.
disagree...he'll skunk off to Florida and whine over twitter for two years until he starts running again.
He'll officially start running a 2024 campaign immediately after leaving office because he'll want to solicit campaign contributions.
I don't see the U.S. AG or SDNY going after Trump post-election under Biden, even though he's clearly an accomplice to some the charges to which Michael Cohen plead guilty.
The IRS already has an investigation and if the NY Times reporting is accurate, there may be a case. If so, I'd expect this to result in back payments and fines, but not criminal prosecution.
If there are criminal charges they'll come from the Manhattan DA (Cyrus Vance) or the NY AG (Letitia James). These probably require the tax and bank record subpeonas to be fulfilled so they won't happen immediately.
My expectation is that Trump blows of the Biden inauguration, sets up camp in Mar A Lago or other Trump property, officially announces a 2024 campaign, and lawyers up to delay completion of the IRS and NY investigations.
johnny99 wrote:
L L wrote:
No way he gest arrested on January 21.
For one, it wouldn't look on Biden or Democrats if that happened.
Jailing your political enemies without due process.
They would need to carefully compile a lot of evidence and present that to the public.
He was totally guilty of what he was impeached for and got away with that.
The state of New York could arrest him right away but I don't see that happening at this high a profile.
Maybe he doesn't want to risk it and jets off to a "vacation" right away.
I would call that fleeing and say your call was right.
Trump is not getting arrested any time soon.
My feeling is that there will be no federal criminal prosecution of Trump. Such a prosecution will always be tainted as political in nature, and the optics of prosecuting a political opponent are not good, even if the prosecution is justified. Also, I think Biden's attitude will be to move forward and put the past behind us, so I doubt he's all that interested in prosecuting Trump.
Trump's greatest criminal threat comes from the NY DA's office and their tax/business/banking fraud investigation. That case would have to be presented to a grand jury first, and an indictment would be issued. At that point, Trump could be arrested, although he would undoubtedly turn himself in voluntarily. I don't know how strong or how serious the potential charges could be, but with Trump's strategy of relentless delay and legal maneuvering, I could see a plea deal a few years from now that keeps Trump out of jail and allows him to pay a hefty fine and be done with it. Someone who is more familiar with white collar crime would have more insight into whether Trump stands a real chance of jailtime from the NY DA's investigation.
Also, if Trump ever went to trial, he would stand a decent shot of getting acquitted, even in NYC. He'd have very good lawyers, and celebrities are not easy to convict.
The right political strategy for Dems is to let trump destroy the GOP. They need to keep hammering the GOP on trumpism to no end and fuel their infighting. I hope the timing of the actual punishment of trump comes right before the 2023 GOP nomination battles starts. He needs to stay wedged in there giving the base hope only to be found ineligible to run. Dems need to focus on a few big policies with simple messaging until then.
I hope trump goes down OJ style, via endless prosecutions that force him into another bankruptcy and that will push him to incriminate himself further.
Monkeys typing wrote:
My expectation is that Trump blows of the Biden inauguration, sets up camp in Mar A Lago or other Trump property, officially announces a 2024 campaign, and lawyers up to delay completion of the IRS and NY investigations.
He'll announce his 2024 bid on the 20th but will "suspend" shortly thereafter so that he doesn't have to FEC reports for the next 4 years.
There's no way he wants file quarterly campaign income reports which shows where the money goes. He'll continue to fund raise but only for his PACs where dark money reigns.
Trollminator wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Hmm. Nope. I am not the best poster on this thread. I am almost certainly the best PERSON on this thread, fake ego notwithstanding.
There is only one person who can claim the best poster on this thread, and that is:
Trollminator
It's without question also. He is right pretty much all the time, he correctly berates (notice that I know what that word means Sally, unlike you...well, you might know now) people here who need it, and he does it strongly enough. Some of you don't go far enough in tearing down the nonsense from some of the posters here. Trollminator is also a constant. I come and go at my whim as I am a whimsical sort. Trollminator also doesn't use too many parenthetical statements like I do.
So, the best poster is Trollminator...without question.
I cannot accept that FP - it's a bunch of you who really post with substance. My stamina has gone up for sure but a lot of it is drive-bys. As far as this thread goes, the liberals have won without question, which this time happens to be also a huge win for the US despite what 74m brainwashed people might believe. We didn't mean this to be an us vs them situation, but the trumpers here gave us no choice. The chronic stupidity and ignorance displayed by Igy, biff and sally calls for nothing but berating.
As far as the thread, I enjoy your posts and that of the long timers like Fats and agip, but also the newer posters that have engaged here since the summer. I wouldn't mind Sally if not for the tendency to use really poor trolling tactics.
I've spent more time on Parler since the election. It's been an interesting experiment engaging distraught tzees there. It's like these people have lost all hope and it's a free for all to feed them new scapegoats and motivation. I've helped organize 3 boycott the vote events in GA and am in regular contact with a big m/aga donor there who really believes it was all stolen from trump and even has paid a private investigator to look into election fraud in Cobb county and Atlanta. These people are not very organized but they are very motivated. The ones I engage with post pictures of themselves in pro-trump events every week. Many seem to be retired, but there are a lot of young angry white guys with no direction.
I've donated a lot of money to Dems in the past but honestly this kind of covert operation will likely go much further than sending cash to some campaign who isn't likely to connect with anyone on the other side. Parler is a bit of a bubble right now, but there is a growing feeling that it's possible for Dems to take the 2 seats in GA. A lot of trumpers are not giving up hope openly, but they are looking to retaliate against the GOP knowing that Biden will inevitably reside in the WH soon. They feel conned by the GOP and that is a big step. I'm actually hoping they don't catch on the Don con the way things are going. If the GOP doesn't fill that anxiety and anger gap soon enough they will be in trouble.
geez trolly....remember the old guide - don't do anything you wouldn't want to read about yourself doing on the front page of the NYT.
Flagpole wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
You are wrong oh butthurt one. I have been saying we had 74 million morons voting for trump. I agree a huge chunk of them are racists (openly or closet) but I have not repeated that everyday. FP gets the credit.
And you, well, you’re just a catastrophic loser, having voted for an orange makeup plastered “man” who can’t stop whining and never takes responsibility. Shed those tears tzee! ???????
Yes, I was right (I mean, of course I was), but to be fair, my stance is that while Trumpers can ONLY be one of two things...JUST stupid or racist, I still submit that most of them are just stupid. Unfortunately a good percentage of them are just racist bastards.
I'm trying to understand the theory and characterization. I assume "Trumpers" means anyone who voted for Trump. If you have a Venn diagram, and one set is Trump Voters-Stupid and the other set is Trump Voters-Racist, how much of an intersection is there? Your post above seems to say none. I think Trollmeister's theory was that there is a significant intersection, approaching 100%.
538 has dead heats in both GA races.
holy toledo that one's gonna come down to the wire
Trollminator wrote:
I hope the timing of the actual punishment of trump comes right before the 2023 GOP nomination battles starts. He needs to stay wedged in there giving the base hope only to be found ineligible to run.
I'm sure you mean *practically* ineligible to run, but some may not realize that DJT could be tried/convicted/imprisoned for a criminal offense and *constitutionally* still be eligible for election to the presidency.
Flybang mosh wrote:
I'm trying to understand the theory and characterization. I assume "Trumpers" means anyone who voted for Trump. If you have a Venn diagram, and one set is Trump Voters-Stupid and the other set is Trump Voters-Racist, how much of an intersection is there? Your post above seems to say none. I think Trollmeister's theory was that there is a significant intersection, approaching 100%.
Per FP: Since racism is stupid, the TV-R set is a subset of TV-S.
He distinguishes between people who are *just* stupid and those who are racist (which means they're stupid as well).
We conservatives may disagree with the Dems/Libs here big-time politically but most of you are "good people" (I don't really like that expression) and I would like to wish you all good health and a wonderful holiday season. May your families, friends and especially the older members of your family have a very healthy end-of-year and a blessed new year. God bless you all!
formerly present wrote:
Flybang mosh wrote:
I'm trying to understand the theory and characterization. I assume "Trumpers" means anyone who voted for Trump. If you have a Venn diagram, and one set is Trump Voters-Stupid and the other set is Trump Voters-Racist, how much of an intersection is there? Your post above seems to say none. I think Trollmeister's theory was that there is a significant intersection, approaching 100%.
Per FP: Since racism is stupid, the TV-R set is a subset of TV-S.
He distinguishes between people who are *just* stupid and those who are racist (which means they're stupid as well).
I'll trust that you are Pole's spokeperson, at least on racism issues.
So, it would look like this, with B being TV-S and A being TV-R. All TV-Rs are TV-S, but not all TV-S are TV-R.
https://favpng.com/png_view/circle-venn-diagram-subset-set-theory-disjoint-sets-png/QUNWNDd9How much of TV-S is TV-R? That seems like an important percentage when you consider TV-S is 74 million people.
agip wrote:
geez trolly....remember the old guide - don't do anything you wouldn't want to read about yourself doing on the front page of the NYT.
Trolling, especially for a good cause, isn't a crime :) Don't worry, I cover my tracks well. If I lived in GA I would actually show up to one of the boycott rallies just to send you all a photo.
https://i.redd.it/fhu9ysen97cz.jpgHuge question is if the move toward trumpism among hispanics is just a love of trump or a permanent move to republicanism.
(note that they are still voting D overall - but not as much)
My gut tells me it's just hispanic men who feel the same male appeal of trump as white men, and when trump isn't on the ticket they'll either not vote or be democrats again. And the same appeal to non-college men.
But who knows. Pretty massive move.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1341432055943622656?s=20
