Down goes the Dow

It tells us that you're K5!

(The "copy and paste" part gave it away. That plus your hate for agip.)

Bella Thaball wrote:

Is going back and reading the thread too tough for you?

Tough to read a non-existent comment.

Of course, if it really existed you would go back and copy and paste it and then you would win the argument.

Yet you cannot do this.

Ergo, no such comment exist. You are a liar. QED.

agip wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Can you tell us why?

because I am not able to predict stock market moves.

And I am confident that a buy and hold strategy will provide satisfactory returns over the long run.

I use high quality bonds as a hedge - in 2008 bonds made solid money when stocks fell 40% - that provides a nice cushion from falling stock prices. I don't have a 100% stock portfolio and very few of my clients do.

I have toyed with using the 200 day indicator as a system to sell when the market starts moving down, but it has too many false positives...I was in and out, in and out, and it cost some real performance.

not sure if I am being trolled, but out my my good nature, I'll post one last time.

that's part uno

agip wrote:

for example, my 529 college savings account. It is around 18 years old, has been primarily at Vanguard, for 10 years in an 80% stocks/20% bonds fund, then 5 years in a 60/40 fund and now in a 30/70 fund.

I add money every month, and most days that the market is down, I throw a hundred dollars at it.

Totally reproduceable investment strategy. It's been through the dot com crash and the financial crisis. it's been through 10 years of virtually no return for the SP500 2000-2010.

And according to Vanguard, it is up 7% per year. Sure if I had dodged the two 50% falls the return would be higher. But I'm fine with 7%. And likely if I tried to market time I would have been wrong a few times and missed big upswings. leading to lower overall returns.

that's all I'm trying to do here.

part due

agip wrote:

whoops

the 7% figure is a 10 year return number, so it only includes one 50% fall, not two.

Doesn't change my thesis tho.

part tre.

e basta.

econ today:

Jobless claims rose materially, and with them the 4 wk mving average rose. Still low historically.

Import export prices: negative 5.0% y/y but m/m shows an easing of deflationary forces. But this one is all oil...hard to tease out things when oil moves so large.

Consumer comfort index: keeps falling, new lows.

I wonder how much the crazy election affects this. I know it is driving me batty. but that just means I drink more, which should be good for the economy, not bad.

As Apple has drifted down so has the market.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As Apple has drifted down so has the market.

Igy

my favorite part of the apple story is this:

Even when it was growing like a weed and making billions of dollars for shareholders, its PE never go high. Was it ever higher than 15? People said 'why doesn't this have a PE of 20-25 like other growth companies?"

But the market was saying, accurately, that it had no future growth drivers, so the stock was just a market multiple or worse stock.

Now it has a 9 or 10 PE, which sounds cheap, but the earnings will likely collapse as apple is forced to cut prices one way or another and margins compress.

agip,

I agree with your points and can see the near term downside. My comment is more diected toward the market cap of the stock and sympathy that can move the market. Just recall the angst when the negatives have been expressed.

Igy

John,

Have you watched the market action for the S&P and Apple stock? Apple is currently down 2% and pulling the market down with it. That was my point from yesterday.

Igy

Whycome wrote:

Bella Thaball wrote:

Is going back and reading the thread too tough for you?

Tough to read a non-existent comment.

Of course, if it really existed you would go back and copy and paste it and then you would win the argument.

Yet you cannot do this.

Ergo, no such comment exist. You are a liar. QED.

Hey, K5, how does it feel to be bitch slapped by agip? Hahahahahahaha

What did you think of Max Scherzer's 20 Ks last night? Is there some sort of conspiracy behind that?

Here's an example of why I don't agree with the Sanders/Trump 'america is for sh*t these days, everything is going downhill' thesis.

When bernie and others say that household incomes have stalled for decades, be very very wary. These stats are complex and not nearly as clear as they may seem on the surface.

American households have changed so substantially that comparing 'household income' across decades and generations means little. Households are much smaller and older. This has distorted the data to make it look worse than it actually is.

The general truth seems to be that if you adjust for the aging and the reduced size of households, household incomes are indeed rising and have been rising for a long time.

If you are interested in how the data should be understood:

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21698318-how-demography-distorts-household-income-statistics-silver-haired-clover

K5 detector wrote:

Whycome wrote:

[quote]Bella Thaball wrote:

Is going back and reading the thread too tough for you?

Tough to read a non-existent comment.

Of course, if it really existed you would go back and copy and paste it and then you would win the argument.

Yet you cannot do this.

Ergo, no such comment exist. You are a liar. QED.

Hey, K5, how does it feel to be bitch slapped by agip? Hahahahahahaha

Still unable to produce the alleged comment? Come on guys, you can do better than this with your face saving lies.

aaaaaaaaaApple......Aaaaaaaaaaa

re; Apple - interesting tweet. Compares owning the Sp500 to owning just the highest cap stock in the SP500. OWning the SP500 did stunningly better, suggesting the largest cap stock is just a hot story stock ripe for collapse.

Suggests a nice hedged strategy: Buy the Sp500, short the largest cap stock in it.

https://twitter.com/dnleeson/status/730779317047697408

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

John,

Have you watched the market action for the S&P and Apple stock? Apple is currently down 2% and pulling the market down with it. That was my point from yesterday.

Igy

Not really. The S&P is down less than 0.4% as I write this. That's less than a half cent on the dollar. With Apple down over 2%, that means the rest of the market is up on average.

Math,

Yes really. Second largest index component + largest percentage down = largest influence on index performance.

Igy

Do the math wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

John,

Have you watched the market action for the S&P and Apple stock? Apple is currently down 2% and pulling the market down with it. That was my point from yesterday.

Igy

With Apple down over 2%, that means the rest of the market is up on average.

no it doesn't.

For a quick estimate of this kind of thing, compare SPY and RSP.

SPY is market cap weighted and RSP is equal weighted. Both own the same 500 stocks.

it's not exact since these are ETFs and don't trade exactly on NAV, but close enough.

Igy, the "index" is not the "market".