At least coach d gives us some insight into his investments, unlike Maserati who just tells us how smart he is and expects us to take his word for it.
At least coach d gives us some insight into his investments, unlike Maserati who just tells us how smart he is and expects us to take his word for it.
coach d wrote:
agip wrote:but of course it needs to be said he made a lot on amazon and a bloody fortune it seems on oil's drop
You haven't paying attention. On 3/6/2016 I posted on here:
coach d wrote:
I think I'm going to give a MUCH bigger headache. The StockCharts weekly newsletter shows, among other things, the largest reading in the McClellan Oscillator since January 2009. This is a breadth thrust expected at the beginning of a bull market, not the end:
http://stockchartscom.cmail20.com/t/ViewEmail/r/F2D60234DF2032C22540EF23F30FEDED/BD8B0E39181CF6411A01488700E2614FWe are looking at the prospect of a MAJOR bottom. This goes along with the MASSIVE reversal in copper on 3/1 with other commodities following, and, yes, I went with the reversal and am now long everything that I was short before, except treasure bonds that I am still short. We gained 20% in the 5 accounts I'm managing.....IN 4 DAYS. Of course, this is also a heavily overvalued condition short term, so a short term correction should be expected (buying opportunity).
Igy, you had better be careful. The force is not with you.
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/post.php?board=1&reply=7087572I called this whole thing--stocks and commodities--and I'm killing EVERYBODY. I was up 52% in the first QUARTER, and it looks like it's going to be about 75% through April.
But I'm also calling for a correction, and the DOW is down about 200 in the aftermarket.
As I said, sell in May and go away for a while.
nice job with the commodities.
You're sort of having it both ways here tho - saying sell in may and go away for a while... but also saying we are at the start of a major bull market. I suppose you mean there will be a short term correction. well ok.
and the dow is not down 200 in the aftermarket - not sure what you are looking at. Looks up around 20 bps to me.
From Asia's perspective on investing.com, I see the Dow 30 down 210.
Regarding short/longer term, this is the McClellan Summation Index I've posted on here before:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=
$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120
If you change the chart attribute for Years from 3 to 5 and click update, you will see that we had similar momentum peaks in 2012 and 2013, but each time we had a correction of at least 10% in the market after the breadth surge peaked. Also we have almost benchmark levels of overbought large caps, measured by % of SP500 stocks above the 200 day moving average (77.6% yesterday, and it got to 87% after the recovery off the 2011 bottom):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?
$SPXA200R
I am not calling for an Igy style crash/bear market. I am calling for an old-school blood-on-the-street buying opportunity over 6-8 weeks. If you have a successful longer term strategy, you stick with and look for bargains down the line. Then, I think we go up significantly as in 2012. I just think the bulls are about out of ammunition for a while and I don't think the bears are going to give in easily.
Once again, I see this situation as shot-term (1-3 months) only.
agip wrote:
coach d wrote:I think Agip is on the mostly bullish side, like Flagpole and me.
But mostly bullish is not always bullish, and with respect to Amazon, I sold the shares I bought on 2/1 this morning at 622 before leaving for work. This is the reason:
https://www.earningswhispers.com/epshistory/amznAlmost a 100% statistical chance of a negative surprise based on recent history.
And this is the other part to keep in mind. In short/intermediate term, the market is heavily overbought (this does not mean I see a crash, but a correction of 10-15%):
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SPXA200R
Sell in May and go away (for a while).
ouch
D is a very good investor but maybe he's in a rough stretch with oil and commodities rebounding and now missing out on amzn's pop.
coach d is a fraud.
Nay,
I am actually the most fun at parties. Unfortunately way too many people miss what is right under their nose. The Fed removed the punch bowl in November 2014, and turned off the lights in 2015. Hey you can party on if you like but you are gonna have one heck of a hangover.
Igy
You claim to be fun, then immediately return to your Negative Nancy persona. Your idea of fun is trying to make other people unhappy.
Igy, spend a few minutes with this article and then PLEASE stop reading and posting from Zerohedge. It's a clickbait operation, not a place for honest analysis.
Amazon.com was soaring in premarket trading on Friday on the heels of blockbuster results, but the broader markets were heading for a flat start at best after the worst day in two months for the Dow industrials.
Earnings announcements will slow to a crawl after a busy week, but data releases ramp up with consumer spending, inflation and consumer sentiment all on Friday's calendar.
That muted start follows a tumultuous day for Wall Street on Thursday, with the Dow industrials stumbling more than 200 points. The main drag on the index was another losing day for Apple Inc.(AAPL) -- whose earnings earlier in the week disappointed investors -- after billionaire Carl Icahn said he dumped his entire stake in the iPhone maker over China worries. For tech shares, April has indeed been 'the cruellest month', and while the sector as a whole is still up since the February lows, it looks like any further market rally for U.S. shares may well have to contend without support from these high-growth names," said Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, in a note to clients.
The Nasdaq Composite , which slid 1.2% on Thursday, is down 2% for the week and 1.3% for the month of April thus far.
agip,
OK, but it is my belief that FactSet is it's own brand of propaganda designed to support the industry narrative that there is never not a time to buy stocks. For example, there is the Wall Street fiction of forward earnings or adjusted earnings. Wall Street forward estimates quoted by FactSet are so much fantasy that to use them truly challenges the most gullible. Just yesterday LinkedIn reported an earnings beat of 74 cents a share but a closer look showed a GAAP loss of 35 cents a share. Yet I have seen no one in the financial media question the discrepancy. In my book this is a much more egregious attempt at misinformation than anything you will find on ZeroHedge.
Igy
Kroger,
Painting a picture that is fiction does no one any good.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
OK, but it is my belief that FactSet is it's own brand of propaganda designed to support the industry narrative that there is never not a time to buy stocks. For example, there is the Wall Street fiction of forward earnings or adjusted earnings. Wall Street forward estimates quoted by FactSet are so much fantasy that to use them truly challenges the most gullible. Just yesterday LinkedIn reported an earnings beat of 74 cents a share but a closer look showed a GAAP loss of 35 cents a share. Yet I have seen no one in the financial media question the discrepancy. In my book this is a much more egregious attempt at misinformation than anything you will find on ZeroHedge.
Igy
the difference is that Factset is simply reporting what is told to them...Zerohedge has an agenda and manipulates numbers to argue for that agenda.
If the companies stopped with the adjusted stuff so would factset.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Kroger,
Painting a picture that is fiction does no one any good.
Igy
I appreciate your honesty. Hopefully this signals a new beginning for you. Good luck.
agip,
FactSet is an arm of the industry, providing the same level of due diligence as provided by the companies. Far from providing anything that represents independent thinking.
Igy
agip,
I have no agenda nor do I attempt to misinform, although I have been called a liar here, which I find almost as offensive as not being a serious person. I post here as an intellectual exercise that challenges what often times is simple cheerleading for the stock market.
On April 22nd FactSet quoted the forward 12 month EPS for the S&P 500 of $124.70. The highest level of forward operating earnings was LTM $114.51 for Q3 2014. The S&P 500 current tracking for LTM operating earnings of $99.99. How does one reconcile these numbers without coming to the conclusion that it supports an industry narrative of "there is never a time not to buy stocks?"
I really question what value are we really supplying to clients and the public in general.
Igy
No agenda? You actively root for a market crash.
Try,
How is the belief that the market is overvalued and subject to a 40-55% drop an agenda? I am not selling anything to you or anyone else. It is an opinion, and an opinion that is supported by historical market data. Sorry if you don't like that opinion, but that is all it is.
Igy
I hope for a market crash--a market crash from a level that's too high to be attractive.
I will then once again buy low, and sell higher.
As far as giving specifics on my activities, forget it. They are not currently "investing" activities as most understand the word, they are "business" activities.
There would be nothing I would enjoy more than a huge market crash, however. I'm ready. The big issue is what happens after the crash. Everything's so effed that I can see a crash happening, after which the market just languishes, or shows tepid price growth. Both the lowering in prices and the sustaining of those lower prices would IMO reflect underlying economic realities.
I'd be OK with lower prices and just better P/E's, and great if their was price growth afterwards. I'd much rather play the markets for a bit than do business, because business is IMO way over-regulated in the US at the moment. Many things that used to be no big deal are now a huge headache, and therefore involve new costs.
I'm not talking about your opinions. I'm talking about the fact that you are leveraged short and actively rooting for a crash. If that's not an agenda, then I don't know what is.
Try,
I didn't realize that the people who read my posts would have such influence on the markets. Perhaps I should take the level of negativity up a level so I can make a killing.
You are pushing your argument to a level of immaturity.
Igy