Down goes the Dow

$50? Maybe. But if the price does go down that low then forget about business cycles. That would have nothing to do with it. $50 Apple stock would reflect a wide belief that Apple is going down and never coming up. That other companies are starting to beat them at their own game. Unless you are talking about the stock market as a whole. That the S&P 500 is going down to 1300 and Apple will be pulled down with hit.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ryan,

You have some good points. I can't help but think the downside is closer to $50 at a cycle low. At a cycle low earnings would retreat further and the stock would be dumped as investors preference for cash rules the day.

Igy

agip wrote:

the problem with buying apple low is that it is a tech company and therefore could literally be out of business in 10 years. They all can.

Agip, the Dow jinx continues !!!

Ryan, read this, I'm sure he'll be updating this in the next couple of weeks.

Ryan,

I am talking about the later, the market takes a hit. Since Apple is the second largest company by market cap it would be affected proportionally. The stock is also held in an above market weight percentage in many mutual funds. I feel much better about AAPL as a stock then say FB, GOOG, NFLX, or AMZN. The market just hasn't quite caught up the FANGs yet. Many of the dividend plays like Kellogg have ridiculous valuations with little growth prospects. Such stocks are driven to growth multiples as "safe" bond-like proxies.

Most of this is just out loud thinking.

Igy

la gente está muy loca wrote:

agip wrote:

the problem with buying apple low is that it is a tech company and therefore could literally be out of business in 10 years. They all can.

Agip, the Dow jinx continues !!!

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=AAPL&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=03%2F18%2F2015&ed=04%2F26%2F2016&size=L&log=0&t=BAR&v=1&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=t&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

BOOM

once in a while someone calculates what the Dow would be without rejiggering and it is usually 25-50% higher. If memory serves correctly.

muy loca,

Love the chart. They have done that a couple times. Fortunately they chose to dump EK.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

muy loca,

Love the chart. They have done that a couple times. Fortunately they chose to dump EK.

Igy

My mother worked for Kodak and retired in 94. Fortunately, I convinced her not to invest in company stock for her pension; some of those that did are still working!

Look for Apple to make a big acquisition to improve their growth picture.

U. R. Nuts wrote:

They're not a high growth company because they are YUGE! How much more growth do you need? They report quarterly revenues of $50+B and you whiners are ready to write their epitaph. Get a grip.

You need to face reality and get a grip. Apple is a ho-hum dividend stock. It will be a safe long term hold as a part of a diversified, dare I say, conservative portfolio. The stock will no longer appreciate 20-40% a year, like it used to. It has become your grandma's dividend stock just like Bank of America, AT&T, Exxon-Mobil, GE, Coca Cola, and Disney for example.

AAPL was getting something like 60-65% margins with the iPhone back in the day and now it's down to 40% and heading lower. The Apple revolution is over.

U. R. Nuts wrote:

Of course it will be fine and sooner than Chicken Littles like you can again say the sky is falling. Get a grip.

AMZN is the next overvalued pig to be taken to slaughter.

I need to face reality? Did you even read what I wrote? You obviously agree with me. It was me that emphasized that they are a revenue company and too big for much more growth (though I am intrigued by the post above mentioning an acquisition). This company is not going away. I can't believe you want to bury them because they had quarterly revenues of 'only' $50 BILLION. Get a grip.

AAPL is slowing down wrote:

AAPL was getting something like 60-65% margins with the iPhone back in the day and now it's down to 40% and heading lower.

I hate to admit it but this is true.

Apple was very good at milking its customers. The 16GB/64GB tiers (no 32GB option) was brilliant at first, because most customers paid the $100 extra. Also having the plus at $100 extra worked really well. With the iPhone 6/Plus they were able to raise the ASP considerably.

But now customers are fed up with this. When you already have an iPhone 6Plus with 64GB you realize to upgrade early is $900. No way.

When a huge company like Apple can bring home 40% margins and still grow considerably, you know the market can't be efficient. Something is clearly wrong, like a monopoly or lack of competition.

Now Android has (for the most part) caught up and many me-too devices are "good enough". Too bad for Samsung that this is also true for their flagships.

Re: services, yes they grew from $4b to $5b, but Apple Musci operates on razor thin margins, maybe 5% right now.

U.S. stock futures slumped Wednesday, hurt by Apple Inc.'s 7% premarket drop after the largest company by market value delivered quarterly results that disappointed investors.

The stock market could get a jolt in the afternoon, when the Federal Reserve's latest policy announcement is due.

Apple(AAPL) late Tuesday said profit fell to $1.90 a share in its fiscal second quarter, missing Wall Street's forecasts for $2 a share, as quarterly revenue declined for the first time in 13 years, dropping 13% to $50.55 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected revenue of $51.97 billion. CEO Tim Cook described the three-month period as "a challenging quarter," representing a "pause in our growth".

The iPhone maker's earnings dropped and its shares have slumped, "but of greater concern was their comment that they see a notable slowing down in growth," said Nour Al-Hammoury, chief market strategist at ADS Securities, in a note.

today's econ:

mortgage app boom appears to be slowing: different categories down -2 to -5%

international trade hit some kind of global air pocket in March: -9.5%. but the trade balance in the US got a little better, which will help 1Q GDP

pending home sales decelerating but still high +1.4% m/m

...and stocks are up despite the tech rout.

heh

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Looks like a buying opportunity!

I'm in! Bought AAPL at just under $98. Have at me, Igy.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Looks like a buying opportunity!

I'm in! Bought AAPL at just under $98. Have at me, Igy.

seems to me bottom fishing is dangerous in all stocks but dangerous and particularly deadly in tech stocks.

literally, this company could be out of business in ten years. You can't say that for companies in other industries. They don't really have a recurring revenue stream, do they? I have an iphone...I could switch to a new phone if they make something better. I'm not stuck with them like I am stuck with Microsoft.

I'd be very wary of apple...the side of the road is littered with burned out wrecks of tech companies.

agip wrote:

literally, this company could be out of business in ten years.

Happens in other industries all the time. Airlines, book stores (borders anyone?), ...

I think the biggest risk with Apple right now is looking at the P/E and thinking "wow, this is cheap".

Remember, right now they have a 40% margin. It was nice while it lasted but it will go away. And suddenly the P/E won't look as favorable anymore.

The opposite with amazon. They invest every dollar they make and therefore noone cares about their ridiculous P/E.

Big,

Good luck. Here are my comments from yesterday:

I feel much better about AAPL as a stock then say FB, GOOG, NFLX, or AMZN. The market just hasn't quite caught up the FANGs yet. Many of the dividend plays like Kellogg have ridiculous valuations with little growth prospects. Such stocks are driven to growth multiples as "safe" bond-like proxies.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=561#ixzz4730iFrgs

Igy