Additional votes have been counted in AZ. Count is at 92%. Trump gained just slightly more, but Biden is maintaining a solid lead of 60k.
Additional votes have been counted in AZ. Count is at 92%. Trump gained just slightly more, but Biden is maintaining a solid lead of 60k.
It is certainly true that Election Day 2020 was not a blue wave (much less a tsunami). I believe that much credit for the GOP's (relative) down-ballot success should go to Donald Trump himself. The prospect of his defeat drew millions to the polls who might otherwise have stayed home; and after filling in the bubble for him *or* Biden, many then "stuck around" and filled out the rest of the ballot for the GOP.
If there's no Trump in the White House, will the Democrats still be able to mobilize the rage and disgust that led to their success in 2018? Or will they semi-complacently hand the Republicans a wave victory, as in 2010?
resourced wrote:
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 6, 10:35 AM
You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air.
Note that the word "arrived" is used. That seems to be the rule that has always been in place in those two red states. Absentee seems to be the name used in both AL and NC for all mailed in ballots, from in state and for people out of the country (military mostly).
NC is not sown up by a long shot. Tillis' (R) lead is going to shrink.
And it is interesting to note that AL's Senate seat is not a republican certainty.
*ahem* wrote:
It is certainly true that Election Day 2020 was not a blue wave (much less a tsunami). I believe that much credit for the GOP's (relative) down-ballot success should go to Donald Trump himself. The prospect of his defeat drew millions to the polls who might otherwise have stayed home; and after filling in the bubble for him *or* Biden, many then "stuck around" and filled out the rest of the ballot for the GOP.
If there's no Trump in the White House, will the Democrats still be able to mobilize the rage and disgust that led to their success in 2018? Or will they semi-complacently hand the Republicans a wave victory, as in 2010?
goes both ways. If Trump is not on the ticket, will the Rs stay home?
In 2018 Trump was not on the ballot and it was a massive blue tsunami.
In 2022 without Trump will there be another?
resourced wrote:
resourced wrote:
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 6, 10:35 AM
You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air.
Note that the word "arrived" is used. That seems to be the rule that has always been in place in those two red states. Absentee seems to be the name used in both AL and NC for all mailed in ballots, from in state and for people out of the country (military mostly).
NC is not sown up by a long shot. Tillis' (R) lead is going to shrink.
And it is interesting to note that AL's Senate seat is not a republican certainty.
It is depressing to see so much Republican energy being spent to not count votes from the overseas military.
*ahem* wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
So let's say 500 show up in time. Even if Trump gets 75% of them, that only nets him 250 votes.
Fats, I think you must be very tired.
I am indeed very tired. Is my math wrong?
500 * 0.75 = 375 for Trump
500 * 0.25 = 125 for Biden
375 - 125 = 250 net votes for Trump
door just slammed even more tight in AZ.
betting odds in AZ went to 94% for Joe in AZ.
Time to call it.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324745370723901442?s=20
Trollminator wrote:
agip wrote:
blue cities are burning
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129?s=20Be afraid trumpers, be very afraid of those scary liberals!
https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/status/1324725533595312129?s=20
Liberals do love to dance!
*ahem* wrote:
It is certainly true that Election Day 2020 was not a blue wave (much less a tsunami). I believe that much credit for the GOP's (relative) down-ballot success should go to Donald Trump himself. The prospect of his defeat drew millions to the polls who might otherwise have stayed home; and after filling in the bubble for him *or* Biden, many then "stuck around" and filled out the rest of the ballot for the GOP.
On the hand the results likely indicate a maximum possible R turnout. A much higher percentage of Rs voted than Ds. The demographic in future years will keep decreasing the R turnout. They are unlikely to ever reach 2020's percentage turnout. What that means is that the Rs need to reconfigure the party to increase their share of new voters. That does not seem to the case based on screeches coming from McConnell and Graham, and other R "leaders." The moderate Rs need to take over control of the party from the current "leaders" to prevent it from dying.
Fat hurts wrote:
*ahem* wrote:
Fats, I think you must be very tired.
I am indeed very tired. Is my math wrong?
500 * 0.75 = 375 for Trump
500 * 0.25 = 125 for Biden
375 - 125 = 250 net votes for Trump
*ahem* was already corrected and s/he acknowledged the error.
I think the problem is that "nets" can have multiple meanings. But everybody seems to be clear now.
Fat hurts wrote:
*ahem* wrote:
Fats, I think you must be very tired.
I am indeed very tired. Is my math wrong?
500 * 0.75 = 375 for Trump
500 * 0.25 = 125 for Biden
375 - 125 = 250 net votes for Trump
"Votes gained" is a better way to put it than "net votes".
Another way to get there is: 0.75 - 0.25 = 0.50 x 500 = 250 votes gained.
agip wrote:
door just slammed even more tight in AZ.
betting odds in AZ went to 94% for Joe in AZ.
Time to call it.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324745370723901442?s=20
Not time to call it yet. That's off but it's not way off. I think Trump needed to average 56% of the vote from here on out. Need to see how much vote is left and where it is coming from.
Trollminator wrote:
Anyone understand why NV and AZ are taking so long? Is it because they continue accepting ballots that were postmarked by the 3rd? And what's happening with NC? It hasn't had any additional votes trickle into the count. I am seriously concerned Rs will start to get violent if there isn't some faster closure here.
None of the states are done counting.
The media chose to call most other states before they were done because of the margins and the makeup of the outstanding votes.
Fox and the AP called Arizona quickly. The other outlets still haven't called it.
Biden and Trump both have zero electoral votes right now.
If every state didn't release vote counts until they are done, we'd know nothing right now.
This week is and election night most years is a media event.
resourced wrote:
resourced wrote:
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 6, 10:35 AM
You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air.
If I figured this right, there's something like 250k more ballots expected in NC and Trump leading by 80k, so Biden would have to pull 67% to flip NC. That's not out of line with some mail in ballots in other states, but it's not clear what the composition (or the exact number) of these ballots might be.
For the NC Senate race, Cunningham is down about 100k and would have to pull over 70% of the remaining ballot to bring it even. That's a big ask, but not obviously impossible.
Note that the word "arrived" is used. That seems to be the rule that has always been in place in those two red states. Absentee seems to be the name used in both AL and NC for all mailed in ballots, from in state and for people out of the country (military mostly).
NC is not sown up by a long shot. Tillis' (R) lead is going to shrink.
And it is interesting to note that AL's Senate seat is not a republican certainty.
same old same old wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Well, that wouldn't be like me, because after the election in 2016, I DID admit I was wrong to say Trump had ZERO chance to win. I was wrong, BUT with the caveat that I DID say he couldn't cheat. He DID cheat (he is Individual-1 to prove that).
To be fair to Rigged, IF Biden is found to have cheated, then, even though Rigged never mentioned it, I would not hold his feet to the fire about getting this call wrong. There has to be PROOF of the cheating though that is confirmed like it was with Trump in 2016.
The trouble with you line of thinking is thay is plays into Rigs hands and validates conspiracy theorist reasoning. Yes the Russians interferred, yes Trump pulled a lot of dirty tricks but he didn’t cheat in the sense of fiddling the ballot. Which is where most people draw the line on what actually constitutes cheating. The rest is simply overreach. We’ll never know if the Russian interference was effective for example.
Well, whoever you are, you got that all wrong, because where Trump cheated in 2016 was in FELONY Campaign Finance Law violations. Cheating is cheating. You can never know FOR SURE if cheating is why you ended up winning in this kind of case. For example, we take away gold medals from athletes in the Olympics if they are found later to have used PEDs, but we don't KNOW that that's why they won. You can NOT cheat, no matter what you think the result of that cheating is.
So, I will say this again...if Biden is found to have cheated, anyone who said he couldn't win gets a pass from me. Now, that cheating has to be proven like Trump's cheating was. In this 2020 election though (this is a new thought of mine), Trump ALSO cheated by trying to get dirt on Biden from TWO foreign countries that we know of, so does that cheating and any possible cheating from Biden cancel each other out? I'm not sure. I'll have to see what any potential Biden cheating there is.
To be clear, I don't believe Biden will be found to have cheated in any way.
reformatted . . .
resourced wrote:
resourced wrote:
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 6, 10:35 AM
You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air.
Note that the word "arrived" is used. That seems to be the rule that has always been in place in those two red states. Absentee seems to be the name used in both AL and NC for all mailed in ballots, from in state and for people out of the country (military mostly).
NC is not sown up by a long shot. Tillis' (R) lead is going to shrink.
And it is interesting to note that AL's Senate seat is not a republican certainty.
If I figured this right, there's something like 250k more ballots expected in NC and Trump leading by 80k, so Biden would have to pull 67% to flip NC. That's not out of line with some mail in ballots in other states, but it's not clear what the composition (or the exact number) of these ballots might be.
For the NC Senate race, Cunningham is down about 100k and would have to pull over 70% of the remaining ballot to bring it even. That's a big ask, but not obviously impossible.
Trollminator wrote:
Anyone understand why NV and AZ are taking so long? Is it because they continue accepting ballots that were postmarked by the 3rd? And what's happening with NC? It hasn't had any additional votes trickle into the count. I am seriously concerned Rs will start to get violent if there isn't some faster closure here.
I'm pretty sure NC will go to Trump, but it is weird that it is getting NONE of the attention from any of the news outlets. I mean, it is still pretty close there.
Fat hurts wrote:
Liberals do love to dance!
Trump jiggled his jello to YMCA and is being sued by the song owners for that atrocity.
https://youtu.be/JjczWoqoMBQ?t=9https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-ymca-village-people-lawsuit-b1640475.htmlzephito wrote:
Quick analysis:
Heroes:
1. Sensible Democratic primary voters who stuck with Biden rather than going with Sanders or Warren – I don’t see the other two winning, especially not Warren.
2. Abrams and Co., working to increase voter turnout in GA.
3. Biden’s campaign, ignoring twitter and running the Tom Dewey #2 playbook. Look normal and let the lunatic run amok. Risky but it seems justified.
4. The Biden/Bacon Rockefeller Republicans in Omaha (and elsewhere) who sealed the deal and prevented the possibility of an EC tie. Conservatives, but those who will not swallow a narcissistic authoritarian.
5. The prodigal sons and daughters who took a flyer on Trump last time but came home.
6. Mitt Romney, who concretely pushed back against Trump this year, not just tut-tutting like some of the others (see below).
Villains:
1. Trump.
2. People who voted for Trump.
3. His cronies and minions, especially Barr, Giuliani, and Miller.
4. McConnell, who evidently grew up wanting to be the world’s most powerful hall monitor.
5. Lindsey Graham / Ted Cruz / Ben Sasse. I hate those guys. Graham especially, the senior senator from the Cradle of Treason, the nation’s preeminent bootlicker of evil. They all know better.
Good summary.
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
door just slammed even more tight in AZ.
betting odds in AZ went to 94% for Joe in AZ.
Time to call it.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324745370723901442?s=20Not time to call it yet. That's off but it's not way off. I think Trump needed to average 56% of the vote from here on out. Need to see how much vote is left and where it is coming from.
Scroll over Maricopa (the one with Phoenix) to see the current numbers.
Biden 972,570
Trump 912,115
93% counted
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/arizona-2020/