Ciro wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
In this case, I actually DO NOT think Arizona should be called for Biden yet. It's just too close. I don't consider Arizona in Biden's column just yet.
I fully agree, Arizona may well go for Trump.
I wasn’t clear, what I meant was the fact that Trumpsters are turning on Fox News speaks to where those supporters are aright now.
You need to look at the voting districts, percentage counted, and the percentage each candidate is getting.
Mohave is the largest Trump leaning (75% to 24%) and is 95% done, with 100,00 votes counted. So, 5,000 votes to count, and Trump gains 51% (75-24) of that and 2500 (51% x 5000) votes on Biden.
Coconino is the largest Biden leaning (62% to 36%) and is 87% done, with 65,000 votes counted. So, 10,000 votes to count, and Biden gains 26% of that and 2600 votes on Trump.
Phoenix is the largest voting district with Biden ahead (51% to 48%) and is 94% done, with 1,83,000 votes counted. So, 226,000 votes to count, and Biden gains 3% of that on Trump, or 7000 votes on Trump.
Pima is a large Biden voting district with Biden ahead (59% to 39%) and is 89% done, with 485,000 votes counted. So, 60,000 votes to count, and Biden gains 20% of that on Trump, or 12,000 votes.
The above projection is Biden-2500 + 2600 +7000 + 12,000, netting +19,000 on Trump.
The student is left to do the other voting districts themselves. But they are smaller voting blocks, and they are mostly counted, and won't make much difference overall. And this is why Arizona has been called for Biden because the swing required to overcome the lead is not in the right type of voting districts for Trump. His biggest districts are 100% complete with their counts (Yuvapi, Gila, and Cochise).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/arizona-2020/