I would say it is more than “in danger”. It is likely to go Blue. Trump is an underdog.
I think Biden will sweep the remaining states (minus NC).
I would say it is more than “in danger”. It is likely to go Blue. Trump is an underdog.
I think Biden will sweep the remaining states (minus NC).
highhoppingworm wrote:
I agree with this comment. I also agree that the US has to do more for its citizenry, especially those that that are the most disenfranchised and at risk. I am simply responding to the phrase “third world nation”. This is a very loaded term that extends well beyond the apparent cracking of our Democracy.
Most “3rd world countries” last I check didn’t drive global technology innovation, dictate the trend of the global economy and (historically) bankroll the predominant international global institutions that have helped seed an era of unprecedented global stability. I will add that that most 3rd world countries also don’t dole out extensive foreign aid to other 3rd world countries. The examples go on and on.
Armstronglivs is being provocative, but at a certain point it crosses the line. If he is indeed a kiwi wikipedia does nice little comparisons between countries... the scale of difference is remarkable.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand–United_States_relations
You are pointing to one aspect, the economy. There are of course many measures of quality for a democracy. Below is one from the Economist. The US last ranked 25th in the world and is not considered a full democracy like the first 22 countries in that list. We rank right up there with Malta, Estonia and Botswana. While it's great to have a robust economic engine, that needs to translate to a better quality of life for the hard working citizens and in the US it doesn't. I think it's fair to say the US is venturing into "third world country with a Gucci belt" territory.
Full democracies are nations where civil liberties and fundamental political freedoms are not only respected but also reinforced by a political culture conducive to the thriving of democratic principles. These nations have a valid system of governmental checks and balances, an independent judiciary whose decisions are enforced, governments that function adequately, and diverse and independent media. These nations have only limited problems in democratic functioning.[6]
Flawed democracies are nations where elections are fair and free and basic civil liberties are honoured but may have issues (e.g. media freedom infringement and minor suppression of political opposition and critics). These nations have significant faults in other democratic aspects, including underdeveloped political culture, low levels of participation in politics, and issues in the functioning of governance.[6]
Hybrid regimes are nations with regular electoral frauds, preventing them from being fair and free democracies. These nations commonly have governments that apply pressure on political opposition, non-independent judiciaries, widespread corruption, harassment and pressure placed on the media, anaemic rule of law, and more pronounced faults than flawed democracies in the realms of underdeveloped political culture, low levels of participation in politics, and issues in the functioning of governance.[6]
Authoritarian regimes are nations where political pluralism is nonexistent or severely limited. These nations are often absolute monarchies or dictatorships, may have some conventional institutions of democracy but with meagre significance, infringements and abuses of civil liberties are commonplace, elections (if they take place) are not fair and free, the media is often state-owned or controlled by groups associated with the ruling regime, the judiciary is not independent, and censorship and suppression of governmental criticism are commonplace.[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Indexhighhoppingworm wrote:
I would say it is more than “in danger”. It is likely to go Blue. Trump is an underdog.
I think Biden will sweep the remaining states (minus NC).
The bigger news with this last batch released is that most of these votes actually came from red counties... Biden has been catching up to trump outside of big Dem hubs.
Trollminator wrote:
highhoppingworm wrote:
I would say it is more than “in danger”. It is likely to go Blue. Trump is an underdog.
I think Biden will sweep the remaining states (minus NC).
The bigger news with this last batch released is that most of these votes actually came from red counties... Biden has been catching up to trump outside of big Dem hubs.
Another thing I did not know is that most states have a policy of counting in-person votes first and then mailed-in votes which explains what we've been seeing. I am assuming it has much to do with practicality but it's really frustrating we can't even fund these sites properly to get a quicker count. It's not like we don't know which places will have higher volume of votes. But of course, we know exactly why it's underfunded and slow.
Trump lied. People died. Now go and be a part of the blue tide!
dfff wrote:
Trump lied. People died. Now go and be a part of the blue tide!
Think about this... trump is saying I won because I said so and stop counting. We used to pity countries with that sort of system and now he's pointing to some of them and suggesting they actually have it good.
And the GOP is really getting a massive pass here. This is the perfect outcome. He turned out to be a cheap 4-year date and they will gravitate to the next vehicle to do their deeds. There is no backbone in the GOP, but that's how they keep surviving and individually financially thriving. These people are not public servants. Remember when many said they were "privately disgusted" but "publicly supported" him? They will pretend it never happened and then get defensive when Dems attack their association with trumpism. They will carry trumpism (in other terms) as a badge of honor and attract other swamp creatures to join their cause.
Nate says a double runoff in GA is likely.
Which means the senate is still in play. In a state that seems to have just went blue.
This election keeps getting better and better.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324216568964882432?s=21
agip wrote:
Nate says a double runoff in GA is likely.
Which means the senate is still in play. In a state that seems to have just went blue.
This election keeps getting better and better.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324216568964882432?s=21
Perdue is sitting with exactly 50.0%. If the remaining votes help Biden then there will be a runoff.
Keep in mind GA has not gone blue in a presidential contest since 1992. If Biden wins there is a huge morale boost and he separates himself from Hillary's performance. I know he's getting AZ as well but GA would be another level.
But plastic nate!!! biff got owned
Oh yeah, btw, markets have been rallying at the prospect of Biden willing.. his presidency will bring the much desired stability of the Obama years. Not more bs trade wars, no more market manipulation. He'll let the markets do their thing.
Trollminator wrote:
Oh yeah, btw, markets have been rallying at the prospect of Biden willing.. his presidency will bring the much desired stability of the Obama years. Not more bs trade wars, no more market manipulation. He'll let the markets do their thing.
some of the rally is due to the prospect of divided government, not just trump out of the white house.
the thinking is:
The country needs big stimulus.
Under a R senate, no big stimulus bill will get through.
So the job of big stimulus will fall to the Federal Reserve instead.
The Federal Reserve's major tool is lowering interest rates. So they will do that.
Lower interest rates are often/usually good for stocks.
So people are buying stocks based on the prospect of lower interest rates courtesy of Mitch, not Biden politics.
Although it's a mix...I suspect the market would have rallied had trump won too, just getting that uncertainty out of the way.
1,201 deaths from covid yesterday in the US.
19% of the world's cumulative total.
4% of the world's population.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Oh yeah, btw, markets have been rallying at the prospect of Biden willing.. his presidency will bring the much desired stability of the Obama years. Not more bs trade wars, no more market manipulation. He'll let the markets do their thing.
some of the rally is due to the prospect of divided government, not just trump out of the white house.
the thinking is:
The country needs big stimulus.
Under a R senate, no big stimulus bill will get through.
So the job of big stimulus will fall to the Federal Reserve instead.
The Federal Reserve's major tool is lowering interest rates. So they will do that.
Lower interest rates are often/usually good for stocks.
So people are buying stocks based on the prospect of lower interest rates courtesy of Mitch, not Biden politics.
Although it's a mix...I suspect the market would have rallied had trump won too, just getting that uncertainty out of the way.
You have no idea what the market is responding to. Just because you heard them say that on Fox News doesn't make it so.
Nonsense! wrote:
agip wrote:
some of the rally is due to the prospect of divided government, not just trump out of the white house.
the thinking is:
The country needs big stimulus.
Under a R senate, no big stimulus bill will get through.
So the job of big stimulus will fall to the Federal Reserve instead.
The Federal Reserve's major tool is lowering interest rates. So they will do that.
Lower interest rates are often/usually good for stocks.
So people are buying stocks based on the prospect of lower interest rates courtesy of Mitch, not Biden politics.
Although it's a mix...I suspect the market would have rallied had trump won too, just getting that uncertainty out of the way.
You have no idea what the market is responding to. Just because you heard them say that on Fox News doesn't make it so.
it's from JP Morgan commentary, but agreed no one really knows.
Unrelated to the election but found this gem on twitter
Here is your Georgia update from the Fat hurts modeling center:
Currently:
Trump: 2,431,724
Biden: 2,413,184
Difference: 18,540
Based on uncounted votes from 20 key Georgia counties, Biden is expected to win Georgia by 37,912 votes. This is below the current recount threshold of 48,449. So it's still looking like we will have a recount.
Also, here is some data on the senate race. I'm not doing any modeling on this one. Just the facts thus far:
Purdue 2,435,653
Ossoff 2,318,558
Hazel 112,382
Write-ins 1,039
Total 4,867,632
50% of total 2,433,816
Over/Under 1,837
It's now Purdue versus the rest of the field. He is only 1,837 votes above 50% right now. If he drops below that we have a runoff between Purdue and Ossoff.
Biden is now within 18,098 in Georgia.
LOL
Seriously, FH? The man's name is PERDUE.
Trollminator wrote:
dfff wrote:
Trump lied. People died. Now go and be a part of the blue tide!
Think about this... trump is saying I won because I said so and stop counting. We used to pity countries with that sort of system and now he's pointing to some of them and suggesting they actually have it good.
And the GOP is really getting a massive pass here. This is the perfect outcome. He turned out to be a cheap 4-year date and they will gravitate to the next vehicle to do their deeds. There is no backbone in the GOP, but that's how they keep surviving and individually financially thriving. These people are not public servants. Remember when many said they were "privately disgusted" but "publicly supported" him? They will pretend it never happened and then get defensive when Dems attack their association with trumpism. They will carry trumpism (in other terms) as a badge of honor and attract other swamp creatures to join their cause.
I agree. The happiest man in America right now is Mitch McConnell. Even if the R's lose the senate, which I would say is less than a 50% chance, it would be good for him. He's happiest being in the opposition and running interference anyway.