Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

highhoppingworm wrote:

I’m not particularly riled up. Would you like to explain to me how what I said is incorrect?

Everything so far is within an expected outcome from 538's model. Remind me to come back to this after the election (which is when we'll actually know how accurate everything was anyways)

agip wrote:

Smorbun wrote:

Why do you think over 300 for Biden?

AZ GA PA WI MI NV

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Racket wrote:

highhoppingworm wrote:

I’m not particularly riled up. Would you like to explain to me how what I said is incorrect?

Everything so far is within an expected outcome from 538's model. Remind me to come back to this after the election (which is when we'll actually know how accurate everything was anyways)

sorta

remember that 538 had MI WI for Joe by what...10 points?

But in the end 538 will come out ok because it picked a winner and only missed a couple states.

johnny99 wrote:

agip wrote:

AZ GA PA WI MI NV

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Don't count out PA yet, it'll take time but based on trends so far it's due for a big swing towards Biden

Racket wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Don't count out PA yet, it'll take time but based on trends so far it's due for a big swing towards Biden

betting odds:

GA: Joe 57%

PA: Joe 67%

Racket wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Don't count out PA yet, it'll take time but based on trends so far it's due for a big swing towards Biden

The other thing about PA which really makes it a wild card is that they will count votes received up to 3 days post-election. So there may be a lot of votes that haven't even been received yet. Nobody knows how many it will turn out to be, but the presumption is that these mail in votes will favor Biden.

appleswan wrote:

Possible theory: Trump encourages his supporters to vote in person on election day. There will be a lot more mail in ballots this year which usually they take longer to count and may be crucial in determining the election.

Therefore overnight polling favors Trump and he seeks to claim the win however the result moves towards Biden once all votes are counted. Trump uses this fact to claim a conspiracy and that the "deep state" saw him winning a second term and denied it to him. If this occurs I don't know how bad the repercussions could be.

Shamelessly bumping my own post from two months ago.

Legislation was prevented allowing PA WI & MI to count mail ballots before election day. If counting was allowed, the results would swing towards Trump meaning he couldn't claim boxes of Biden votes are being "found".

Obviously the end result would be the same but it's the optics which Trump seeks to manipulate.

agip wrote:

Racket wrote:

Don't count out PA yet, it'll take time but based on trends so far it's due for a big swing towards Biden

betting odds:

GA: Joe 57%

PA: Joe 67%

I don't think he'll win GA but I can appreciate how close it is. Dems have been chipping away at it for a long time

johnny99 wrote:

agip wrote:

AZ GA PA WI MI NV

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Trump will take AZ, GA and leading in PA. NV stopped counting for a day, which is insane. WI & MI is too close to call. Biden needs to sweep the rust belt and that will not happen.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Trump will take AZ, GA and leading in PA. NV stopped counting for a day, which is insane. WI & MI is too close to call. Biden needs to sweep the rust belt and that will not happen.

Correct!!!

Is flagpole already in hiding????

Hahahahahaha!!!!

Nothing better than watching hillary lovers continue to have meltdowns.

Democrats lose again!!!

try again sir wrote:

money back wrote:

Pretty clear cheating by the Democrats. They stopped counting their votes until republican areas finished counting so they knew exactly what number they had to cheat to.

Is there any merrit to this? I'm not American and admitedly don't know much about the voting process but as a neutral observer the way things unfolded definitely seemed a little suspect to me (which is not to say I'm claiming fraud!).

I'm guessing democrats would say "no way the right are sore losers" and republicans would say "yes obviously they did" So likely there is no point in even asking this lol but I'm interested to know. It definitely seems like mail in votes would be a great place to cheat if one were going to.

You nailed it.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Trump will take AZ, GA and leading in PA. NV stopped counting for a day, which is insane. WI & MI is too close to call. Biden needs to sweep the rust belt and that will not happen.

Seriously doubt Trump takes AZ. FOX and the AP have already given it Biden; they can be wrong but I suspect they know more about where the votes are coming from than you or me.

WI and MI may be too close to call, but we can all see the writing on the wall, and it's not good for Trump. Biden leads in both states, and the vast majority of outstanding votes are mail in votes from urban areas, i.e. they should favor Biden. So the likelihood is that Biden will stretch his lead in both states.

No, Biden doesn't have to sweep the rust belt. He's already lost Ohio and can win without PA. I agree that he needs to win in WI and MI, on top of MN, but he seems to be on the road to doing that.

Overall, the Dems had a bad night last night. But taking the White House will erase some of the disappointment.

Trollminator wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

MI update, Biden extends lead with 90% of votes counted.. he will run away with it

Minor PA update, with an additional 1% in (76% total) Biden bit 30k out of the gap. It's now 589k.

Biden takes another massive bite out of PA.. another 1% (now 77% counted) and the gap closed by a further 39k. It's now 550k. There are 1.6m votes to count still.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

I don't feel confident about Biden taking GA or PA. But he looks solid on the others, which gets him to 270.

Trump will take AZ, GA and leading in PA. NV stopped counting for a day, which is insane. WI & MI is too close to call. Biden needs to sweep the rust belt and that will not happen.

No, trump will not take AZ and GA is way too close to call. His lead in PA is massive but at the pace over the last 2 batches of votes his lead will evaporate by the time 90% is counted. WI and MI are in favor of Biden with mailed in votes outstanding. Trump is suffering 1,000 cuts since FL last night.

Trump only needs AZ, GA & PA to clinch. He doesn't need MI or WI or NV.

Trump 277 EV

Biden 261 EV

KAG2020

Racket wrote:

highhoppingworm wrote:

I’m not particularly riled up. Would you like to explain to me how what I said is incorrect?

Everything so far is within an expected outcome from 538's model. Remind me to come back to this after the election (which is when we'll actually know how accurate everything was anyways)

Unfortunately people cannot tell the difference between polling results and statistics of polling results. 538's model is really good.

I just saw this AFTER posting my updated map. He confirms my prediction: