highhoppingworm wrote:
You are being disingenuous. 538 does not just “take polls” they have a model that factors in incumbency, fundraising, the generic ballot, uncertainty etc. to come up with a probabilistic score. I will agree with the trumpers that their model is indeed garbage as was much of the polling that was a factor in it.
You don't seem to understand exactly what 538 does or what a probability is so maybe you should calm down lol
Fat hurts wrote:
I think we are indeed looking at a double-runoff in the Georgia senate races. It's harder to game it out than it is for the presidential race, but it looks to me like Purdue will drop below 50%.
That sets up a crazy situation where control of the senate will be decided in January. I have said all along that the only way Democrats could win the runoff is if the race becomes nationalized and senate control hangs in the balance. I still give the edge to Republicans but the Democrats do have a decent chance.
clearly, since Joe might win GA, statewide elections could go for Democrats there.
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
You were up too late last night, agip. 270 is a win outright. 269-269 would be a tie.
it's only a win if the 270 electors do as they are supposed to. They don't have to in many states. That's what I meant by faithless electors.
would be way better to win PA or GA and have a cushion.
Oh, I see. I'm not that concerned about faithless electors unless it's tied.
Put yourself in the place of that elector. Would you want to be the one who throws the nation into chaos? In the case of a tie, a faithless elector might think he or she is preventing chaos by settling matters in the EC.
Biden just took the lead in MI
88% likely win for Joe
Trollminator wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Here's the comprehensive update as of now:
Biden 224 vs Trump 213
7 states are in play:
Pennsylvania 20
Georgia 16
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
Arizona 11
Wisconsin 10
Nevada 6
That's 94 votes to pick up. If you're thinking shortest path to victory, Biden needs at least 3 additional states. If he wins PA, he can take it with either GA+MI (276), GA+NC (276), GA+AZ (271), MI+AZ (271), NC+AZ (270). Without PA, he can also win with 3 states GA+MI+NC (271). Trump - needs at least 4 additional states because he's down 11 votes.
The general theme with remaining states is that a bunch of mailed in votes are outstanding and mostly in Dem-leaning counties. So while it's terrible for Biden to be behind, the remaining votes should heavily favor him, but not clear if it will be enough to get him in front. Over the last few hours Biden has been closing gaps.
The state by state situation is:
Pennsylvania 20 - 75% of votes counted. Biden is down 620k with 1.8m votes left to count. That means he needs to pick up at least 65% of the remaining uncounted votes to get even. Most of the uncounted votes are spread across the Philly area and Allegheny (both around 70% counted) in the western part of the state. Both areas have leaned heavily Dem. Most of the votes left to count were mailed in. With some small %s remaining across the rest of the state I think Biden needs to take about 80% of the votes left around Philly area and Allegheny to win the state. Very close and they have until Friday to wrap it up.
Georgia 16 - 92% of votes counted. Biden is down 102k with 405k left to count. That means he needs to pick up at least 75% of the remaining uncounted votes to get even. Most of the uncounted votes are around the Atlanta area and that of course favors Biden, but still that's not an easy margin to make up.
Michigan 16 - 86% of votes counted. Biden is only down 27k with 779k left to count. He's been closing the gap quickly over the last couple of hours so I think the state will go to Biden, especially with most uncounted votes being in the Detroit area. The winner will be called today.
North Carolina 15 - 95% of votes counted. Biden is down 77k with 284k left to count. A higher wall to climb but still doable since most of the votes left to count are in Dem leading counties.
Arizona 11 - 82% of the votes have been counted and Biden leads by 131k with 572k left, mostly in blue counties. Biden will win this state.
Wisconsin 10 - 91% of the votes are counted with Biden just having taken a lead of 11k. There are 317k votes remaining. This will be close but the momentum with final mail in votes is favoring Biden.
Nevada 6 - 86% of the votes are counted with Biden leading by 8k. There are 190k votes outstanding and mostly in Vegas, favoring Biden.
Updated on WI - 97% of votes in with Biden extending his lead to 21k votes. Thank you WI.
Consider it 234 Biden vs 213 Trump. Biden can win with PA+GA, PA+MI, or without PA his shortest and best path is GA+MI+NV
I hadn't included Maine and Alaska, which will be 4 for Biden (he's already won 1 of the votes) and 3 for Trump... so officially it's 225 Biden vs 213 Trump, with the following:
Pennsylvania 20
Georgia 16
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
Arizona 11
Wisconsin 10
Nevada 6
Maine 4
Alaska 3
Minor update for MI, additional votes were counted and now 88% is in. With that 2% additional counted, Biden reduced a gap of 27k votes to now 15k votes. I am very confident he will take that state too.
Assuming Trump takes Alaska and Biden picks up WI (97% in with wind at his back), MI and will take Maine, that puts it 254 Biden vs 216 Trump. With that Biden would only need PA (274) or GA (270), or AZ+NV (271).
I’m not particularly riled up. Would you like to explain to me how what I said is incorrect?
agip wrote:
Biden just took the lead in MI
88% likely win for Joe
Wild stuff, he should be up >50k after full count.
agip wrote:
the best moment last night was when I clicked on the NYT needle page and it showed GA moving into the Joe camp.
After it was Trump 75% much of the night. It's at Joe 64% now.
THe needle did the same thing in reverse in 2016 - it showed trump winning when no one else believed it. Amazing piece of data journalism. It digs very deep into precinct level voting.
My best moment came with the AZ vote dump that showed Biden up 10% in Maricopa county. That showed the FL vote to be not indicative of a national swing.
#2 was the NE #2 going for Biden, which removed the 269-269 possibility. OMAHA!!!
#3 is GA. Certainly nice, but not necessary after the other two.
Actually, the NE#2 is probably the best. I was terrified of a tie (which would go to Trump). Just that the AZ vote dump came first.
GA and PA would give nail my 306 prediction if my math is correct.
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I think we are indeed looking at a double-runoff in the Georgia senate races. It's harder to game it out than it is for the presidential race, but it looks to me like Purdue will drop below 50%.
That sets up a crazy situation where control of the senate will be decided in January. I have said all along that the only way Democrats could win the runoff is if the race becomes nationalized and senate control hangs in the balance. I still give the edge to Republicans but the Democrats do have a decent chance.
clearly, since Joe might win GA, statewide elections could go for Democrats there.
It could, but runoffs structurally favor Republicans. This is what always happens in Georgia. The Democrat makes it to the runoff but gets wiped out. A few reasons for this:
1. Republican vote consolidates.
2. Libertarian vote switches to Republican.
3. Runoff voters are more likely to be older, and therefore skew Republican.
That third one might go away this time. Usually, runoffs don't get as much participation as the general. Younger working people don't show up to vote while older retired people do vote. But with a nationalized race like this, young people might show up in larger numbers.
The second one will be harder to overcome. There are just a lot more Republican-leaning libertarians then Democrat-leaning libertarians.
right now it's looking like Biden 307 electoral votes and a 6-8% popular vote win.
that's not too bad.
And maybe two runoffs in GA for the senate, in a state that might vote for Joe.
In the end, this could be pretty good for Dems.
agip wrote:
right now it's looking like Biden 307 electoral votes and a 6-8% popular vote win.
that's not too bad.
And maybe two runoffs in GA for the senate, in a state that might vote for Joe.
In the end, this could be pretty good for Dems.
That's a sweep of remaining states except for NC, seems like a stretch but he's definitely got an advantage with remaining votes across the board.
I bet turkey neck is really happy right now, and would perhaps even be grateful for a close trump loss. He's holding the Senate majority and doesn't need to actively distance the GOP from trump anymore if he loses. They'll just pretend it never happened and suck up to the next loud mouth that comes in to steal the party. Seems to me the GOP's bet of getting behind trump is really paying off again. He's really carrying those Senate races and they expected to go home devastated.
Interesting take that I hadn’t considered. You are probably right sadly. It’s going to be a crappy 4 years as far as getting stuff done but as long as some of the drama disappears I’m ok with that.
Trollminator wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Updated on WI - 97% of votes in with Biden extending his lead to 21k votes. Thank you WI.
Consider it 234 Biden vs 213 Trump. Biden can win with PA+GA, PA+MI, or without PA his shortest and best path is GA+MI+NV
I hadn't included Maine and Alaska, which will be 4 for Biden (he's already won 1 of the votes) and 3 for Trump... so officially it's 225 Biden vs 213 Trump, with the following:
Pennsylvania 20
Georgia 16
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
Arizona 11
Wisconsin 10
Nevada 6
Maine 4
Alaska 3
Minor update for MI, additional votes were counted and now 88% is in. With that 2% additional counted, Biden reduced a gap of 27k votes to now 15k votes. I am very confident he will take that state too.
Assuming Trump takes Alaska and Biden picks up WI (97% in with wind at his back), MI and will take Maine, that puts it 254 Biden vs 216 Trump. With that Biden would only need PA (274) or GA (270), or AZ+NV (271).
MI update, Biden extends lead with 90% of votes counted.. he will run away with it
highhoppingworm wrote:
Interesting take that I hadn’t considered. You are probably right sadly. It’s going to be a crappy 4 years as far as getting stuff done but as long as some of the drama disappears I’m ok with that.
Wanna bet Tucker Carlson and Don Jr will run in 2024? Lol
Trollminator wrote:
highhoppingworm wrote:
Interesting take that I hadn’t considered. You are probably right sadly. It’s going to be a crappy 4 years as far as getting stuff done but as long as some of the drama disappears I’m ok with that.
Wanna bet Tucker Carlson and Don Jr will run in 2024? Lol
DJT Senior won't run?
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Wanna bet Tucker Carlson and Don Jr will run in 2024? Lol
DJT Senior won't run?
Something tells me he will f it bigly by then
I'm too disappointed in Florida and Ohio to make any further comments until the overall call, where I may be disappointed again.
Even if Biden wins, the close results are not good that Trump even had a chance given his low character.
If that's what people like, then that's sad.