agip wrote:
senate looking bad...I don't quite see how the dems take it.
AZ, CO yes
IA no
ME probably not
NC no
GA probalby not
I still think GA is a "probably not". But if it's a double-runoff that decides control of the senate, that is an unprecedented situation. Who knows what could happen? It would be totally insane.
You would have African Americans turn out in huge numbers to get Warnock in. That just never happens in our runoffs.
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
senate looking bad...I don't quite see how the dems take it.
AZ, CO yes
IA no
ME probably not
NC no
GA probalby not
I still think GA is a "probably not". But if it's a double-runoff that decides control of the senate, that is an unprecedented situation. Who knows what could happen? It would be totally insane.
You would have African Americans turn out in huge numbers to get Warnock in. That just never happens in our runoffs.
um fats:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.htmlFat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
senate looking bad...I don't quite see how the dems take it.
AZ, CO yes
IA no
ME probably not
NC no
GA probalby not
I still think GA is a "probably not". But if it's a double-runoff that decides control of the senate, that is an unprecedented situation. Who knows what could happen? It would be totally insane.
You would have African Americans turn out in huge numbers to get Warnock in. That just never happens in our runoffs.
BTW, Montana is still a possible senate pickup for Dems.
agip wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I still think GA is a "probably not". But if it's a double-runoff that decides control of the senate, that is an unprecedented situation. Who knows what could happen? It would be totally insane.
You would have African Americans turn out in huge numbers to get Warnock in. That just never happens in our runoffs.
um fats:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html
Thanks for that. It verifies my "back of the envelope" calculation that says GA is insanely close right now. If Ossoff tracks with Biden we are headed for a double runoff.
betting odds now 55/45 for trump
agip wrote:
um fats:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html
Wouldn't it be nice if Biden can get PA and GA, plus AZ and the battleground NE and ME CDs. That puts him over 300 EV along with a certain PV advantage. It would make the win decisive.
PA is so iffy right now (either way) - Trump holding similar margins in most rural counties and his OH win looks similar to last time, but other, more urbanized counties throughout the midwest are better for the Dems this cycle.
There was a great move back in the 90's - Dark City, where these aliens constructed an artificial city with captured humans and set up various scenarios with the humans unknowingly acting out different roles. Sort of like scientists studying rats running a maze. I feel like those aliens have come to earth and have been driving the bus for the last 4 years and are really having fun with us now. They dressed up one of their own as a human (although not knowing exactly what humans are supposed to look like - the costume doesn't quite fit) and made him president and have him do the most ridiculous stuff..."what will humans do when we try THIS! Or THIS! And now we'll have an election and no one will know who wins! Bwahahahaha!!!"
nate:
A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.
I think there's a good chance.
Biden is giving a speech right now: "We believe we're on track to win this election."
For what it's worth (which is absolutely nothing) Biden is up 2 million in the PV, closing in on 50%, and pulling away. If only the GOP could endorse policies the majority actually wanted rather than just scraping along, playing divide and conquer, and ratcheting up fear, they might win the popular vote again.
wapo calls MN for Joe
a 538 analyst:
Our best clue to how Wisconsin might go could be found in next-door Minnesota, where the Associated Press has just projected Biden as the winner. In the AP’s count, Biden leads Trump by an impressive 12 points there, with 76 percent of the expected vote reporting. In 2016, Wisconsin was just 3 points more Republican-leaning than Minnesota.
Fox News has MN for Biden. Not a surprise (except maybe to Rigged) but he obviously had to have it.
agip wrote:
nate:
A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.
The EC tie scenario is so scary. What if you had an unfaithful elector? SCOTUS already said it's OK for electors to be unfaithful.
agip wrote:
a 538 analyst:
Our best clue to how Wisconsin might go could be found in next-door Minnesota, where the Associated Press has just projected Biden as the winner. In the AP’s count, Biden leads Trump by an impressive 12 points there, with 76 percent of the expected vote reporting. In 2016, Wisconsin was just 3 points more Republican-leaning than Minnesota.
I'm looking warily at PA - the county maps don't seem to look too good to Biden there. He's behind in a few counties that HRC carried (Chester, Lehigh, Bucks). Of course, there are a lot of votes to be counted (probably in the cities in those counties) and surely he'll close but he's down 14 points there now. Save us, Omaha!!!
zephito wrote:
I'm looking warily at PA - the county maps don't seem to look too good to Biden there. He's behind in a few counties that HRC carried (Chester, Lehigh, Bucks). Of course, there are a lot of votes to be counted (probably in the cities in those counties) and surely he'll close but he's down 14 points there now. Save us, Omaha!!!
I voted in Lehigh county.
Been living at home the last few months, biking around a lot.
Number of Trump and Biden signs is dead even. Noticeable change in the demographics, which may hurt Biden.
Biden up by 11 in Nebraska #2 with 85% reporting. OMAHA!!! Coming through in the clutch! If that holds, PA is not necessary anymore (although MI and WI are, of course).
Huge
Arizona?
Has it been called or not?
Are they still counting tonight?
Gina wrote:
Arizona?
Has it been called or not?
Are they still counting tonight?
Fox has called it (AZ) for Biden. NYT hasn't. I think it's pretty safe for Biden. They (NYT) took a long time to call FL when it was obvious Trump won it.
NBC just called Nebraska 2 for Biden! That also makes EC tie a lot less likely.