Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

L L wrote:

Still not a single swing state called for either side.

Why haven't the networks called FL? It's a done deal.

The networks originally called it for Gore in 2000 and then took it off the board and then called it for Bush.

Trump has about a 400,000 vote lead with an estimated 600,000 votes left to count.

They can't call that because nothing about Florida is predictable.

(but I like zephito's response to your question)

agip wrote:

HUGE. This makes PA not necessary.

Fox News:

REAKING: BIDEN WINS ARIZONA; KELLY UNSEATS MCSALLY

We have a major race call to announce: The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona, dramatically narrowing the president’s pathway to reelection. It is the first state of the night where Trump loses a state he won in 2016.

Fox calls the first swing state for Biden but CNN has not called it yet.

Arizona's senate seats and presidential electoral vote Republican losses all have to do with Trump's immature belittling of John McCain.

nate, if you want to believe him:

Just speaking hypothetically: If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but Biden wins Arizona, Biden is an 85 percent favorite in our scenario generator. There’s a 6 percent chance of an Electoral College tie, though.

In prototypical midwestern county news, Biden wins Peoria county. Trump won last time. Betting markets (which I at least take into account) still have Trump at 70%. I don't see where they're getting that (although I'm not saying they're wrong), especially with Biden looking in relatively good shape in AZ. Except for FL, with its big GOP Cuban population, Biden seems to be doing a little better overall than HRC. And even FL is pretty much in line with 2016. Are they anticipating the late vote being more GOP than I'm expecting?

agip wrote:

nate, if you want to believe him:

Just speaking hypothetically: If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but Biden wins Arizona, Biden is an 85 percent favorite in our scenario generator. There’s a 6 percent chance of an Electoral College tie, though.

Ha! I was just about to post that. A lot of people are freaking out with so much of the vote still uncounted. Just goes to show how on edge everyone is

Also in 538 and voting news: Lackawanna County in PA (Scranton) goes to Biden by 10K vs HRCs 3K.

with az to joe betting odds are now 60/40

zephito wrote:

Also in 538 and voting news: Lackawanna County in PA (Scranton) goes to Biden by 10K vs HRCs 3K.

Finally, the betting markets are taking note of some of these vote totals - now it's 60-40 for Trump. While Trump could still win, there was no reason for it to zoom to 80% or whatever earlier on. I'm thinking those markets are pretty illiquid, with a lot of emotional bettors on them.

agip wrote:

with az to joe betting odds are now 60/40

You just beat me to it

like fats said, GA is not over. the needle is sliding back toward joe

but still 76% for trump

agip wrote:

HUGE. This makes PA not necessary.

Fox News:

REAKING: BIDEN WINS ARIZONA; KELLY UNSEATS MCSALLY

We have a major race call to announce: The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona, dramatically narrowing the president’s pathway to reelection. It is the first state of the night where Trump loses a state he won in 2016.

That's great, but also kind of scary. I give AZ to Biden then give FL and NC to Trump.

In that scenario, 538 gives Trump a 7% chance of winning. And it's a 5% chance of a tie.

agip wrote:

like fats said, GA is not over. the needle is sliding back toward joe

but still 76% for trump

Won't know on GA until tomorrow so not worth watching at this point. FL and NC are probably Trump. A lot of media sources already calling VA for Biden though (which was mostly expected anyways)

agip wrote:

HUGE. This makes PA not necessary.

Fox News:

REAKING: BIDEN WINS ARIZONA; KELLY UNSEATS MCSALLY

We have a major race call to announce: The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona, dramatically narrowing the president’s pathway to reelection. It is the first state of the night where Trump loses a state he won in 2016.

Not so fast, agip. AZ only counted EARLY votes. Maricopa County had ZERO election day votes counted. Fox is going to have to walk this call back.

It would be an utter disaster for there to be an EC tie (which Trump would win, as the GOP congressional delegations control a greater total number of states). If Trump has to win, it's much better that he wins outright, at least in the EC. I suspect if there's on thing absolutely everyone on this board can agree on it's that.

senate looking bad...I don't quite see how the dems take it.

AZ, CO yes

IA no

ME probably not

NC no

GA probalby not

agip wrote:

senate looking bad...I don't quite see how the dems take it.

AZ, CO yes

IA no

ME probably not

NC no

GA probalby not

Senate hasn't done anything except Supreme Court judges in the past 10 years anyways.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

agip wrote:

HUGE. This makes PA not necessary.

Fox News:

REAKING: BIDEN WINS ARIZONA; KELLY UNSEATS MCSALLY

We have a major race call to announce: The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona, dramatically narrowing the president’s pathway to reelection. It is the first state of the night where Trump loses a state he won in 2016.

Not so fast, agip. AZ only counted EARLY votes. Maricopa County had ZERO election day votes counted. Fox is going to have to walk this call back.

I don't think they're going to do that.

It looks like Wisconsin is counting its absentee ballots last so there might a good surprise for Biden.

THE NYT NEEDLE JUST THREW GA TO JOE