Rigged, at least you are saying that Trump will get more votes.
Instead of saying Democrat votes will be fraudulent.
Though, your name implies that you will call it rigged for Joe if Biden does win.
Rigged, at least you are saying that Trump will get more votes.
Instead of saying Democrat votes will be fraudulent.
Though, your name implies that you will call it rigged for Joe if Biden does win.
OK, here's my official prediction.
[quote]agip wrote:
Electoral College
Biden: 290
Trump: 249
Texas EC
Trump
Florida EC
Trump
Senate Control:
Dems
House
Dems increase majority by 7 seats
SC Senator:
R
KY Senator:
R
AZ Senator
D
CO Senator
D
ME Senator:
D
NC Senator:
D
GA Senator Regular (Perdue/Ossoff):
R
GA Senator Special
D
IA Senator:
D
AL Senator:
R
I wouldn't be shocked by any one of 3 scenarios. A Biden landslide, a tight Trump win or a tight Biden win. For my official prediction, I'm going with a tight Biden win.
Trump's not going to flip any states that went for Hillary in 2016. Biden looks solid in WI and MI; PA is a question mark, but in the end it's a Democratic state and I think it will revert to that this time. I think FL, TX , OH and GA will go for Trump, but Biden will pick up one or more of AZ, IA or NC.
The big mistake that I think a lot of Trump supporters are making is assuming this will play out as it did 4 years ago. Different year, different candidates, different circumstances, and it will be a different result.
Last thing, I feel bad for Doug Jones (Dem senator from AL); he seems like a good guy who's likely to lose his election. Maybe Biden can find a place for him in the administration, possibly a high level DOJ post.
agip wrote:
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think anyone over 40 has been burned so often by that crazy state that we just assume it will do the wrong thing.
The difference this year is that Trump has managed, somehow, incompetently and murderously, to lose senior citizens. That's gonna hurt him bigly.
It's a bit strange to see all the hand wringing on the left even in the face of pretty positive polling contrasted with the irrational projections of electoral outcomes from the right on these threads.
Biden winning Florida is far from assured, but I'd certainly take an even money bet on it.
My feeling is that this is going to be a historically high turnout election which helps Biden over perform the polls.
Monkeys typing wrote:
agip wrote:
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think anyone over 40 has been burned so often by that crazy state that we just assume it will do the wrong thing.
The difference this year is that Trump has managed, somehow, incompetently and murderously, to lose senior citizens. That's gonna hurt him bigly.
It's a bit strange to see all the hand wringing on the left even in the face of pretty positive polling contrasted with the irrational projections of electoral outcomes from the right on these threads.
Biden winning Florida is far from assured, but I'd certainly take an even money bet on it.
My feeling is that this is going to be a historically high turnout election which helps Biden over perform the polls.
yeah the problem is 2018, when statewide polls in FL said Ds would win the governor and senator but the Rs won both.
Not to mention 2016 where polling said Hillary won win PA, MI, WI, FL and NC the day before the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2016 the polling was off for 5 states in favor of Trump and 0 states in favor of Hillary.
So positive polling isn't such a warm feeling.
Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
If that's true then it could be an advantage for Democrats. It should be easy to prove that people are getting late postmarks. From there you just go to court and show that the USPS was committing fraud and ALL votes should count regardless of postmark date. That means even votes that are sent after election day would be eligible for counting.
But I have my doubts about this postmark scheme being true.
IMO the postmark scheme is one simple thing they can easily do and get away with. I don't think it's easy to prove at all. Say postal offices across the country are simply holding mailed ballots in the back. There are no markings to prove that the USPS got a hold of them on time but simply didn't postmark and process. Dems have to catch wind of this quickly enough (within days) after Tuesday and organized some corroborating details to take up the complaint with authorities and state election boards. It's a huge messy undertaking and the GOP can just try to run out the clock. They can say that yes it was known that the USPS would experience delays. They can blame huge mail-in voting volumes for the issue. I think it's very hard to prove it is deliberate. As long as the GOP can get some kind of lead for trump (fraudulently if needed) the chances that it will be investigated and reversed in time are very little. And as you know, once trump is deemed the winner it's game over on going after anyone, trump will pardon everybody.
Dejoy is not specifically holding back ballots. He is holding back all mail deliveries, except packages. Recall that he stopped overtime pay months ago. The USPS has also failed to hire enough replacement workers over the years after Republicans poisoned the USPS and forced them to pre-fund retirements for workers; which resulted in fewer hires and increased overtime work.
The net result of the above is that killing overtime, and failing to hire new workers, means the mail moves very slow, and until collected mail is sorted it does not get a post mark. This has been the plan all along. The claim will be that the USPS cannot afford overtime pay.
Mailing delivery slowing down affects all mail not just ballots. No one is being targeted. But that slow down is much higher in swing districts in certain swing states gives the game away. Dejoy screwed up his perfect plan. And he cannot fix it time to make seem less obvious.
Fat hurts wrote:
L L wrote:
Why would anyone chance their ballot being delivered by USPS?
Get to a drop off box.
That’s still tons easier than making it in to vote at a polling station and going through line during available hours.
As for excitement of how hard Trump is campaigning this week, most of the votes are already in.
And people have been waiting years to vote against Trump. They don’t need to attend any rallies to show support for Biden. They simply vote.
A lot of people have no way to get to a drop box. And in many states, it is illegal to give your ballot to someone else for dropping off. So USPS is your only choice.
USPS has not been showing a significant drop in mail deliver times in rural areas. Just in the bigger cities in certain states.
Fat hurts wrote:
L L wrote:
If they have no way to get to a drop off box at any time, then they have no way to get to their prescribed polling location to vote in person during voting hours.
So, 100% of people who mail in their ballot (which is a new option) where never going to vote anyway by that logic.
But I think most could have gotten it to a drop box at some point.
What are you talking about? We have always had absentee ballots. There are lots of people who are physically unable to get to a polling place. They are still allowed to vote.
There is no way to prove a piece if mail was intentionally post marked late when all the mail is being held up.
agip wrote:
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think anyone over 40 has been burned so often by that crazy state that we just assume it will do the wrong thing.
The difference this year is that Trump has managed, somehow, incompetently and murderously, to lose senior citizens. That's gonna hurt him bigly.
Every election cycle it's supposedly split down the middle and sure enough somehow Rs take it. I couldn't bet on it going blue unless there was a 10% gap. What I keep going back to is that yes older people are dying more from COVID, but these are mostly white retirees who would definitely be more scared than others of the Dem commies coming for them. I also resided there for 5 months this year and didn't get a good feeling.
Fat hurts wrote:
The late great Molly Ivins wrote this back in the 90's. This is why the Democrats lost white men without a college degree:
A large segment of Limbaugh’s audience consists of white males, 18 to 34 years old, without college education. Basically, a guy I know and grew up with named Bubba.
Bubba listens to Limbaugh because Limbaugh gives him someone to blame for the fact that Bubba is getting screwed. He’s working harder, getting paid less in constant dollars and falling further and further behind. Not only is Bubba never gonna be able to buy a house, he can barely afford a trailer. Hell, he can barely afford the payments on the pickup.
And because Bubba understands he’s being shafted, even if he doesn’t know why or how or by whom, he listens to Limbaugh. Limbaugh offers him scapegoats. It’s the “feminazis.” It’s the minorities. It’s the limousine liberals. It’s all these people with all these wacky social programs to help some silly, self-proclaimed bunch of victims. Bubba feels like a victim himself—and he is—but he never got any sympathy from liberals.
Psychologists often tell us there is a great deal of displaced anger in our emotional lives—your dad wallops you, but he’s too big to hit back, so you go clobber your little brother. Displaced anger is also common in our political life. We see it in this generation of young white men without much education and very little future. This economy no longer has a place for them. The corporations have moved their jobs to Singapore. Unfortunately, it is Limbaugh and the Republicans who are addressing the resentments of these folks, and aiming their anger in the wrong direction.
Thanks for sharing. Considering this has been a growing problem for decades, are these people too late to save, or at least for the left to reach? What I find fascinating is that they stick to red no matter how awful their local economies are. They are getting crushed further and harder by their GOP leaders and keep believing it's someone else's fault. Americans created this stigma around handouts and that was never considered for these sad folks who probably need it more than others. They continue voting against their own interests no matter how bad it gets. But honestly, how are Dems supposed to compete with Rs for their ear when they are being given scapegoat after scapegoat? Dems can't offer that.
agip wrote:
This. Americans who say 'I'm just following orders when I fight to disrupt democracy' makes them villains.
And if they are doing it out of conviction, well they're not democrats at all.
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1323265423576571904?s=20
They know exactly why they are doing it... but when you are in the "fight" and surrounded by like-minded people it's easy to act without thinking. Many germans knew jews were getting unjust treatment, but hey their fellow germans seemed ok with it... "we were all doing it and the leader was assuring us"
L L wrote:
agip wrote:
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think people will cast more votes for Joe in Florida.
Then we will see how many Democrat votes DeSantis and the Florida Republicans will be able to block from being counted.
I also think Joe will get more votes in North Carolina and have concerns about all of those votes being counted.
Same with Texas.
That's why I mentioned that my prediction accounts for probable outright cheating. Sure, Biden will get more than enough votes to win, but will they be allowed to be counted? Based on what I have seen from Ron DeVirus, he is going to help orange man steal Florida.
L L wrote:
And I see the irony that as I am saying Republicans will suppress Democrat votes, Republicans are saying Democrats are making fraudulent votes.
We will both be skeptical of the results if it does not favor our side.
But there is never any real evidence of fraud, only shouts about it.
We have a lot of evidence of voter suppression and Republicans going to court to ask that ballots not be counted.
Ah but if the deep state keeps helping Dems, then they hide the evidence of fraud... funny how that works right
As far as people trying to get a feeling for the state they live in based on signs or what people are saying or any gut feeling, forget it.
I am in Maryland, between Baltimore in DC.
We know Maryland is going blue and that I95 corridor is very blue.
I see big Trump signs in lots of places.
We have had a few Trump parades go through my neighborhood.
Trumpers ere very loud this year.
If I went with my observations, I would think Trump is going to win Maryland.
Biden will win easily here. Because us Biden voters already voted and we're not waving flags or wearing hats.
And we are great in number.
Monkeys typing wrote:
agip wrote:
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think anyone over 40 has been burned so often by that crazy state that we just assume it will do the wrong thing.
The difference this year is that Trump has managed, somehow, incompetently and murderously, to lose senior citizens. That's gonna hurt him bigly.
It's a bit strange to see all the hand wringing on the left even in the face of pretty positive polling contrasted with the irrational projections of electoral outcomes from the right on these threads.
Biden winning Florida is far from assured, but I'd certainly take an even money bet on it.
My feeling is that this is going to be a historically high turnout election which helps Biden over perform the polls.
My current short-term fear is two-fold:
1. Tomorrow we hear about vigilante trumper antics all across the US. They will block vital roads to voting sites, harass people in line, do whatever they can to prevent citizens from voting.
2. The GOP tightens the screws in tightly contested areas. They ensure lines are slowed to a grind, sites close on the dot and the usual drama with voter IDs.
3. Rs quickly mobilize to help trump invalidate ballots. Tens of thousands of ballots that were put in the mailbox on time, got collected, but just sat in the USPS warehouse. We see a North Carolina ballot fraud situation play out in several states.
These would be my worries over the next 3 days and may cause enough damage to give trump a slight edge or ability to protest results in key states.
L L wrote:
Not to mention 2016 where polling said Hillary won win PA, MI, WI, FL and NC the day before the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/2016 the polling was off for 5 states in favor of Trump and 0 states in favor of Hillary.
So positive polling isn't such a warm feeling.
I've been watching shifts in the polls over the last few days to see how quickly they've closed and there is some relief on that front for Biden. For Hillary the gap closed at an accelerated pace in the final weeks giving trump clear momentum even if she had a good lead going in. He has way too much real estate to make up on Biden across key states.
You guys sound like Trump in 2016 talking about all the voter fraud that he said kept him from winning the popular vote.
Notea wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
IMO the postmark scheme is one simple thing they can easily do and get away with. I don't think it's easy to prove at all. Say postal offices across the country are simply holding mailed ballots in the back. There are no markings to prove that the USPS got a hold of them on time but simply didn't postmark and process. Dems have to catch wind of this quickly enough (within days) after Tuesday and organized some corroborating details to take up the complaint with authorities and state election boards. It's a huge messy undertaking and the GOP can just try to run out the clock. They can say that yes it was known that the USPS would experience delays. They can blame huge mail-in voting volumes for the issue. I think it's very hard to prove it is deliberate. As long as the GOP can get some kind of lead for trump (fraudulently if needed) the chances that it will be investigated and reversed in time are very little. And as you know, once trump is deemed the winner it's game over on going after anyone, trump will pardon everybody.
Dejoy is not specifically holding back ballots. He is holding back all mail deliveries, except packages. Recall that he stopped overtime pay months ago. The USPS has also failed to hire enough replacement workers over the years after Republicans poisoned the USPS and forced them to pre-fund retirements for workers; which resulted in fewer hires and increased overtime work.
The net result of the above is that killing overtime, and failing to hire new workers, means the mail moves very slow, and until collected mail is sorted it does not get a post mark. This has been the plan all along. The claim will be that the USPS cannot afford overtime pay.
Mailing delivery slowing down affects all mail not just ballots. No one is being targeted. But that slow down is much higher in swing districts in certain swing states gives the game away. Dejoy screwed up his perfect plan. And he cannot fix it time to make seem less obvious.
But if trump "wins" DeJoy and all other trump minions make out like the bandits they are. Immune from all worries and can rake in the $ for 4 years.
L L wrote:
As far as people trying to get a feeling for the state they live in based on signs or what people are saying or any gut feeling, forget it.
I am in Maryland, between Baltimore in DC.
We know Maryland is going blue and that I95 corridor is very blue.
I see big Trump signs in lots of places.
We have had a few Trump parades go through my neighborhood.
Trumpers ere very loud this year.
If I went with my observations, I would think Trump is going to win Maryland.
Biden will win easily here. Because us Biden voters already voted and we're not waving flags or wearing hats.
And we are great in number.
That's fine for a state with that many more registered Dems (assuming that is the case in Maryland?), but it's scary for Florida since Rs have closed what used to be a big gap in registered Dem vs R voters. Too many gullible old white people.
Trollminator wrote:
Notea wrote:
Dejoy is not specifically holding back ballots. He is holding back all mail deliveries, except packages. Recall that he stopped overtime pay months ago. The USPS has also failed to hire enough replacement workers over the years after Republicans poisoned the USPS and forced them to pre-fund retirements for workers; which resulted in fewer hires and increased overtime work.
The net result of the above is that killing overtime, and failing to hire new workers, means the mail moves very slow, and until collected mail is sorted it does not get a post mark. This has been the plan all along. The claim will be that the USPS cannot afford overtime pay.
Mailing delivery slowing down affects all mail not just ballots. No one is being targeted. But that slow down is much higher in swing districts in certain swing states gives the game away. Dejoy screwed up his perfect plan. And he cannot fix it time to make seem less obvious.
But if trump "wins" DeJoy and all other trump minions make out like the bandits they are. Immune from all worries and can rake in the $ for 4 years.
Since Dejoy's intimated his slow-it-down actions, Trump has been screeching to stop the vote counting early, and throw out all the "late" mailed ballots. Trump once again gives his game away.
Dejoy, and the other minions like him, think that their main penalty will be losing their current government job, which they plan to leave anyway when Trump loses. They will unlikely see any financial penalty at all. Maybe all Biden needs to do is write an Executive Order to hurt the thieves where they do not expect. That is what Trump would do. Create law by EO.