Dementia Joe will NEVER be POTUS.
Dementia Joe will NEVER be POTUS.
Trollminator wrote:
My picks are below. I am accounting for potential cheating otherwise would say blowout. I almost added Texas for Biden which would push him to 347.
Trollminator wrote:
Alright, time for predictions!
In this election contest, the poster with the highest score wins. There are 3 races to predict (1. Presidential, 2) Senate, 3) House), each with predictions worth a certain amount of points. 300 is a perfect score. Instructions are straightforward. Do not mess with the characters in the questions, simply reply to this post and add your responses as indicated at the end of each (e.g. T for 1.a., a for 1.c., 330 for 1.d., D for 2.a.). Blank responses = no points.
You have until Monday evening to post your final answers, feel free to post prelim predictions if you wish in the meantime. On election day I will share everyone's responses. I will calculate scores after the election whenever the results are actually determined.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. ~Presidential Race (150 points max)~
1.a. Pick winner ("choose "T" or "B") (40 points): B
1.b. Pick winner of popular vote ("choose "T" or "B") (8 points): B
1.c. Predict margin of popular vote victory by selecting from one of the following letters (8 points for correct response): "a" < 1 million; "b" 1-2 million; "c" 3-5 million; "d" 5-7 million; "e" 7-10 million; "f" 10+ million: e
1.d. Predict winner's total EC votes (provide exact number) (30 points for exact, 15 if within range of 10, 10 if within range of 30, 5 if within range of 50): 309
1.e. ~Predict winner of toss-up states (choose "T" or "B" for each) (4 points for each correct pick) ~
1.e.i. Iowa: T
1.e.ii. Georgia: T
1.e.ii. Ohio: T
1.e.iv. Florida: T
1.e.v. North Carolina: B
1.e.vi. Texas: T
1.e.vii. Arizona: B
1.e.viii. Pennsylvania: B
1.e.ix. Nevada: B
1.e.x. Michigan: B
1.e.xi. Minnesota: B
1.e.xii. New Hampshire: B
1.f. ~Predict winner of likely D state (choose "T" or "B" for each) (2 points for each correct pick)~
1.f.i. Colorado: B
1.f.ii. Maine: B
1.f.iii. Virginia: B
1.f.iv. New Mexico: B
1.g. ~Predict winner of likely R state (choose "T" or "B" for each) (2 points each correct pick)~
1.g.i. Montana: B
1.g.ii. Alaska: T
1.g.ii. South Carolina: T
1.g.ii. Missouri: T
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2. ~Senate Race (100 points max)~
2.a. Pick winning party (choose "R" or "D") (40 points): D
2.b. Predict total seats for winning party (provide exact number including VP) (12 points for exact, 8 if within range of 1, 6 if within range of 2, 4 if within range of 3, 2 if within range of 5): 52
2.c. ~Predict winner of toss-up Senate elections (choose "R" or "D") (4 points for each correct pick)~
2.c.i. Iowa (R-Ernst/D-Greenfield): D
2.c.ii. Georgia (R-Purdue/D-Ossof): R
2.c.iii. North Carolina (R-Tillis/D-Cunningham): D
2.c.iv. Maine (R-Collins/D-Gideon): D
2.c.v. Georgia runoff (R/D): D
2.c.vi. Montana (R-Daines/D-Bullock): R
2.c.vii. Kansas: (R-Marshall/D-Bollier): R
2.c.viii. Arizona (R-McSally/D-Kelly): D
2.c.ix. Alaska (R-Sullivan/D-Gross): R
2.c.x. Michigan (R-James/D-Peters): D
2.c.xi. Alabama (R-Tuberville/D-Jones): R
2.c.xii. Colorado (R-Gardner/D-Hickenlooper): D
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3. ~House Race (50 points max)~
3.a. Pick winning party (choose "R" or "D") (10 points): D
3.b. Predict margin of party victory (provide exact number) (40 points if within range of 10, 30 if within range of 20, 20 if within range of 30, 10 if within range of 50): 41
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Montana for Biden? That's a bold one.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
https://twitter.com/Maddux4163/status/1323183840270180352Dementia Joe will NEVER be POTUS.
Good thing there is no one with that name running.
UPDATE!
538 has Biden back up to 90% chance to win.
Has EC votes up to 350 for Biden.
Just Wundrin wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
What if they do not postmark mail until after tuesday and simply hide it until then? They get to say they it was mailed after the deadline or it might have been mailed on time but was received too late by USPS to sort and process. Isn't that why they've been sending notices last week warning people that their ballots may not be received if mailed at that point? They could be holding ballots from 2 weeks ago that they will claim came in late.
The problem, it seems to me, is that there are many potential witnesses - USPS workers. Too many to risk it, IMHO. I assume that the penalties for such tampering are harsh enough that people in a position to lead such a scheme are not going to take that risk.
Full disclosure - I have no expertise in this area.
I hear ya, but trump and his enablers have been pushing the envelope (no pun intended). They are getting a clear go ahead from trump and so I do believe some will grow enough courage to try it. I just don't know if it would rise to the level of a national scheme within the USPS. I do think DeJoy has done his part to help trump as last week mail delivery did slow down to levels not seen since the summer. I wonder if we will ever know how many thousands of ballots would have it normally made it on time but didn't because of DeJoy's "performance improving effort".
Flagpole wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
My picks are below. I am accounting for potential cheating otherwise would say blowout. I almost added Texas for Biden which would push him to 347.
Montana for Biden? That's a bold one.
Yeah I wanted to throw one odd one in there... we usually do see something crazy and of course I'm hoping it's a Texas flip instead.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
If anything this weekend's events confirms what we knew - with hundreds of tzees blocking traffic in NJ and those in Texas harassing the Biden/Harris campaign team by surrounding their bus. These traitors are sad little a$$holes who never felt heard, who were never breast fed as babies and never took their coats off in high school. They consider themselves victims, the outsiders. These people with resentments are losers in a meritocratic society. Instead of seeing the origin of their weaknesses and dealing with it, they let themselves be overcome by fear of some non-english speaking hispanic refugee with an 8th grade level education. It is ok because the potus also blames those people right. Instead of seeing trump con them openly like this and unite with other americans, they prefer to succumb to their hatred.
This is mostly the sad consequence of the GOP's inability to successfully govern. They should be touting their accomplishments under trump in comparison to Dems, but they can't so instead they help trump throw gas at a bunch of r@cists and welcome domestic terrorism. They are doing this openly with the exception of the 1 or 2 RINOs that have a backbone and job left.
You Dementia Joe supporters upset at the Trump trucks driving near the Biden bus in Texas need to first prove you were outraged at BLM/Antifa who shot the 3 Trump supporters in the head in Portland, Denver and Milwaukee before pretending to be upset about people driving. Also, have you seen the full clip of the Texas driving “incident”? It was the Biden car leaving its lane to hit the truck.
We are outraged at all violence no matter where it comes from.
The m@ga-babies who drove their trucks at the bus were clearly there for harassment purposes and created a very dangerous situation. I hope they throw them all in prison.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
If anything this weekend's events confirms what we knew - with hundreds of tzees blocking traffic in NJ and those in Texas harassing the Biden/Harris campaign team by surrounding their bus. These traitors are sad little a$$holes who never felt heard, who were never breast fed as babies and never took their coats off in high school. They consider themselves victims, the outsiders. These people with resentments are losers in a meritocratic society. Instead of seeing the origin of their weaknesses and dealing with it, they let themselves be overcome by fear of some non-english speaking hispanic refugee with an 8th grade level education. It is ok because the potus also blames those people right. Instead of seeing trump con them openly like this and unite with other americans, they prefer to succumb to their hatred.
This is mostly the sad consequence of the GOP's inability to successfully govern. They should be touting their accomplishments under trump in comparison to Dems, but they can't so instead they help trump throw gas at a bunch of r@cists and welcome domestic terrorism. They are doing this openly with the exception of the 1 or 2 RINOs that have a backbone and job left.
You Dementia Joe supporters upset at the Trump trucks driving near the Biden bus in Texas need to first prove you were outraged at BLM/Antifa who shot the 3 Trump supporters in the head in Portland, Denver and Milwaukee before pretending to be upset about people driving. Also, have you seen the full clip of the Texas driving “incident”? It was the Biden car leaving its lane to hit the truck.
^ looks like we identified one of the sad little a$$holes
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think anyone over 40 has been burned so often by that crazy state that we just assume it will do the wrong thing.
The difference this year is that Trump has managed, somehow, incompetently and murderously, to lose senior citizens. That's gonna hurt him bigly.
The late great Molly Ivins wrote this back in the 90's. This is why the Democrats lost white men without a college degree:
A large segment of Limbaugh’s audience consists of white males, 18 to 34 years old, without college education. Basically, a guy I know and grew up with named Bubba.
Bubba listens to Limbaugh because Limbaugh gives him someone to blame for the fact that Bubba is getting screwed. He’s working harder, getting paid less in constant dollars and falling further and further behind. Not only is Bubba never gonna be able to buy a house, he can barely afford a trailer. Hell, he can barely afford the payments on the pickup.
And because Bubba understands he’s being shafted, even if he doesn’t know why or how or by whom, he listens to Limbaugh. Limbaugh offers him scapegoats. It’s the “feminazis.” It’s the minorities. It’s the limousine liberals. It’s all these people with all these wacky social programs to help some silly, self-proclaimed bunch of victims. Bubba feels like a victim himself—and he is—but he never got any sympathy from liberals.
Psychologists often tell us there is a great deal of displaced anger in our emotional lives—your dad wallops you, but he’s too big to hit back, so you go clobber your little brother. Displaced anger is also common in our political life. We see it in this generation of young white men without much education and very little future. This economy no longer has a place for them. The corporations have moved their jobs to Singapore. Unfortunately, it is Limbaugh and the Republicans who are addressing the resentments of these folks, and aiming their anger in the wrong direction.
This. Americans who say 'I'm just following orders when I fight to disrupt democracy' makes them villains.
And if they are doing it out of conviction, well they're not democrats at all.
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1323265423576571904?s=20
Fat hurts wrote:
The late great Molly Ivins wrote this back in the 90's. This is why the Democrats lost white men without a college degree:
A large segment of Limbaugh’s audience consists of white males, 18 to 34 years old, without college education. Basically, a guy I know and grew up with named Bubba.
Bubba listens to Limbaugh because Limbaugh gives him someone to blame for the fact that Bubba is getting screwed. He’s working harder, getting paid less in constant dollars and falling further and further behind. Not only is Bubba never gonna be able to buy a house, he can barely afford a trailer. Hell, he can barely afford the payments on the pickup.
And because Bubba understands he’s being shafted, even if he doesn’t know why or how or by whom, he listens to Limbaugh. Limbaugh offers him scapegoats. It’s the “feminazis.” It’s the minorities. It’s the limousine liberals. It’s all these people with all these wacky social programs to help some silly, self-proclaimed bunch of victims. Bubba feels like a victim himself—and he is—but he never got any sympathy from liberals.
Psychologists often tell us there is a great deal of displaced anger in our emotional lives—your dad wallops you, but he’s too big to hit back, so you go clobber your little brother. Displaced anger is also common in our political life. We see it in this generation of young white men without much education and very little future. This economy no longer has a place for them. The corporations have moved their jobs to Singapore. Unfortunately, it is Limbaugh and the Republicans who are addressing the resentments of these folks, and aiming their anger in the wrong direction.
or it's just racism and resentment of big city folk. Not economics at all.
Flagpole wrote:
UPDATE!
538 has Biden back up to 90% chance to win.
Has EC votes up to 350 for Biden.
Nate Plastic will be 100% WRONG as usual.
https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2020/11/01/las-vegas-oddsmaker-announces-final-prediction-trump-electoral-landslide-coming-n2579146Enjoy your loss.
agip wrote:
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think anyone over 40 has been burned so often by that crazy state that we just assume it will do the wrong thing.
The difference this year is that Trump has managed, somehow, incompetently and murderously, to lose senior citizens. That's gonna hurt him bigly.
FL is Trump country.
https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2020/11/01/las-vegas-oddsmaker-announces-final-prediction-trump-electoral-landslide-coming-n257914KAG2020
Fat hurts wrote:
What are you talking about? We have always had absentee ballots. There are lots of people who are physically unable to get to a polling place. They are still allowed to vote.
But we haven't always had absentee ballots at this volume.
The concept of absentee ballots are for people unable to make it to the polls on election day.
People who will be legitimately absent or traveling that day, or the physically unable as you point out.
That was generally an immaterial total.
Now covid is the reason for millions and millions of more absentee ballots.
And the totals are very material to the results.
That would be a big strain on USPS compared to the past.
So, everyone who would otherwise vote in person should be able to make it to a drop off box.
People who mail it in last minute that have the ability to drop it off are putting the results in jeopardy.
but, but, but muh 538!
There will be YUUUGE liberal tears on election night.
agip wrote:
So does anyone think Joe will win Florida?
I think people will cast more votes for Joe in Florida.
Then we will see how many Democrat votes DeSantis and the Florida Republicans will be able to block from being counted.
I also think Joe will get more votes in North Carolina and have concerns about all of those votes being counted.
Same with Texas.
It's going to be a long dark winter for Dementia Joe as he will have the rest of his life to ponder while hiding in the basement.
And I see the irony that as I am saying Republicans will suppress Democrat votes, Republicans are saying Democrats are making fraudulent votes.
We will both be skeptical of the results if it does not favor our side.
But there is never any real evidence of fraud, only shouts about it.
We have a lot of evidence of voter suppression and Republicans going to court to ask that ballots not be counted.