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4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:17am EST

re: Fat hurts

Fat hurts wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Who is checking the USPS? Sounds like it could be pretty easy to just hang on to ballots from certain blue districts and postmark them late.
https://twitter.com/defeat_trump2/status/1323082023775318016?s=21
If that's true then it could be an advantage for Democrats. It should be easy to prove that people are getting late postmarks. From there you just go to court and show that the USPS was committing fraud and ALL votes should count regardless of postmark date. That means even votes that are sent after election day would be eligible for counting.
But I have my doubts about this postmark scheme being true.

IMO the postmark scheme is one simple thing they can easily do and get away with. I don't think it's easy to prove at all. Say postal offices across the country are simply holding mailed ballots in the back. There are no markings to prove that the USPS got a hold of them on time but simply didn't postmark and process. Dems have to catch wind of this quickly enough (within days) after Tuesday and organized some corroborating details to take up the complaint with authorities and state election boards. It's a huge messy undertaking and the GOP can just try to run out the clock. They can say that yes it was known that the USPS would experience delays. They can blame huge mail-in voting volumes for the issue. I think it's very hard to prove it is deliberate. As long as the GOP can get some kind of lead for trump (fraudulently if needed) the chances that it will be investigated and reversed in time are very little. And as you know, once trump is deemed the winner it's game over on going after anyone, trump will pardon everybody.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:17am EST

re: Flagpole

Flagpole wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
https://twitter.com/blacktinkerbe14/status/1323183636510728194?s=21
Kind of funny, but to be honest, my Spanish sounds like that.

Sure, but would you do what he did? :)

4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:34am EST

re: NameStolenAgain

NameStolenAgain wrote:
On a separate note: when the counts start it's going to come as a shock to the Trump supporters that there are republican early (and late) voters voting for Biden.

This

4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:44am EST

re: This bleeping guy

This bleeping guy wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
On a separate note: when the counts start it's going to come as a shock to the Trump supporters that there are republican early (and late) voters voting for Biden.
This

What now feels like an eternity ago, on-the-fence voters and Hillary-despising Dems flocked to a third-party ticket. Jill Stein got 1.5 million votes... they couldn't conceptualize back then what the next 4 years would be like.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:48am EST

re: Trollminator

I'm facing a little dilemma... I am 6 hours ahead of EST and want to watch the election results come in. A couple of key states start to report early on but it's probable they won't call a winner until days later. I'll probably just wake up at 4am and still follow most of the action.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:50am EST

re: Trollminator

Update. Registered users only. Feel free to send changes or new predictions:

Electoral College

LL: Biden 413-125

Flagpole: Biden 334

Agip: Biden 305-233

Runningart2004: Biden 418

Highhoppingworm: Biden 306

Breitleit Biden 279

Rigged: Trump 313

Sally Vix: Trump 283

15-50 Trump 279-259 B+7.1%

Welp: Biden 331

Texas EC

Sally Vix: R

Florida EC

Sally Vix: R

Senate Control:

Flagpole: D

Count Chocula: D

Highhoppingworm: D

Rigged: R, 51-49

Agip: 50-50, Biden breaks tie

House

Flagpole: Ds increase seats

Rigged: D, but lose 10 seats

Agip: Ds add 8 seats to 240

SC Senator:

LL: D

Agip: R

Flagpole: R

Count Chocula: D

Highhoppingworm: R

KY Senator:

Flagpole: R

Agip: $

AZ Senator

Count Chocula: D

Agip: D

CO Senator

Count Chocula: D

Agip: D

ME Senator:

Count Chocula: D

Agip: D

NC Senator:

Count Chocula: D

Agip: D

GA Senator Regular (Perdue/Ossoff):

Count Chocula: D

Agip: R

GA Senator Special

Fat Hurts: R

Agip: D

IA Senator:

Count Chocula: D

Agip: D

AL Senator:

Count Chocula; R

Agip: R

4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:51am EST

re: L L

L L wrote:
Why would anyone chance their ballot being delivered by USPS?
Get to a drop off box.
That’s still tons easier than making it in to vote at a polling station and going through line during available hours.
As for excitement of how hard Trump is campaigning this week, most of the votes are already in.
And people have been waiting years to vote against Trump. They don’t need to attend any rallies to show support for Biden. They simply vote.

A lot of people have no way to get to a drop box. And in many states, it is illegal to give your ballot to someone else for dropping off. So USPS is your only choice.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 6:52am EST

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
I'm facing a little dilemma... I am 6 hours ahead of EST and want to watch the election results come in. A couple of key states start to report early on but it's probable they won't call a winner until days later. I'll probably just wake up at 4am and still follow most of the action.

the key early event will be FL closing. But really...we know it will be close so they won't have much to say. Most likely.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:01am EST

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
If that's true then it could be an advantage for Democrats. It should be easy to prove that people are getting late postmarks. From there you just go to court and show that the USPS was committing fraud and ALL votes should count regardless of postmark date. That means even votes that are sent after election day would be eligible for counting.
But I have my doubts about this postmark scheme being true.
IMO the postmark scheme is one simple thing they can easily do and get away with. I don't think it's easy to prove at all. Say postal offices across the country are simply holding mailed ballots in the back. There are no markings to prove that the USPS got a hold of them on time but simply didn't postmark and process. Dems have to catch wind of this quickly enough (within days) after Tuesday and organized some corroborating details to take up the complaint with authorities and state election boards. It's a huge messy undertaking and the GOP can just try to run out the clock. They can say that yes it was known that the USPS would experience delays. They can blame huge mail-in voting volumes for the issue. I think it's very hard to prove it is deliberate. As long as the GOP can get some kind of lead for trump (fraudulently if needed) the chances that it will be investigated and reversed in time are very little. And as you know, once trump is deemed the winner it's game over on going after anyone, trump will pardon everybody.

While phone banking we have also heard from voters that the USPS is postmarking mail weeks late.

This is really easy to prove. Just post a photo of the mail with a late postmark. Or better yet, give the mail to the District Attorney. If it is postmarked late, then the USPS is busted.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:10am EST

re: Fat hurts

Fat hurts wrote:
L L wrote:
Why would anyone chance their ballot being delivered by USPS?
Get to a drop off box.
That’s still tons easier than making it in to vote at a polling station and going through line during available hours.
As for excitement of how hard Trump is campaigning this week, most of the votes are already in.
And people have been waiting years to vote against Trump. They don’t need to attend any rallies to show support for Biden. They simply vote.
A lot of people have no way to get to a drop box. And in many states, it is illegal to give your ballot to someone else for dropping off. So USPS is your only choice.

If they have no way to get to a drop off box at any time, then they have no way to get to their prescribed polling location to vote in person during voting hours.

So, 100% of people who mail in their ballot (which is a new option) where never going to vote anyway by that logic.

But I think most could have gotten it to a drop box at some point.

With all of that said, many or most of those USPS mail-in votes represent additional votes that would not have been cast.

More votes cast is bad for Republicans.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:13am EST

re: L L

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/01/texas-drive-thru-votes-harris-county/

Texas Republicans are trying to have over 100,000 votes thrown out.

They do not believe in democracy.

I strongly believe more people will vote for Biden than Trump in Texas.

But they may block enough Democrat votes to steal the win for Trump.

This is real voter fraud.

Not that imaginary fraud of fake ballots. They block real ballots.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:17am EST

re: Trollminator

My picks are below. I am accounting for potential cheating otherwise would say blowout. I almost added Texas for Biden which would push him to 347.

Trollminator wrote:
Alright, time for predictions!
In this election contest, the poster with the highest score wins. There are 3 races to predict (1. Presidential, 2) Senate, 3) House), each with predictions worth a certain amount of points. 300 is a perfect score. Instructions are straightforward. Do not mess with the characters in the questions, simply reply to this post and add your responses as indicated at the end of each (e.g. T for 1.a., a for 1.c., 330 for 1.d., D for 2.a.). Blank responses = no points.
You have until Monday evening to post your final answers, feel free to post prelim predictions if you wish in the meantime. On election day I will share everyone's responses. I will calculate scores after the election whenever the results are actually determined.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. ~Presidential Race (150 points max)~
1.a. Pick winner ("choose "T" or "B") (40 points): B
1.b. Pick winner of popular vote ("choose "T" or "B") (8 points): B
1.c. Predict margin of popular vote victory by selecting from one of the following letters (8 points for correct response): "a" < 1 million; "b" 1-2 million; "c" 3-5 million; "d" 5-7 million; "e" 7-10 million; "f" 10+ million: e
1.d. Predict winner's total EC votes (provide exact number) (30 points for exact, 15 if within range of 10, 10 if within range of 30, 5 if within range of 50): 309
1.e. ~Predict winner of toss-up states (choose "T" or "B" for each) (4 points for each correct pick) ~
1.e.i. Iowa: T
1.e.ii. Georgia: T
1.e.ii. Ohio: T
1.e.iv. Florida: T
1.e.v. North Carolina: B
1.e.vi. Texas: T
1.e.vii. Arizona: B
1.e.viii. Pennsylvania: B
1.e.ix. Nevada: B
1.e.x. Michigan: B
1.e.xi. Minnesota: B
1.e.xii. New Hampshire: B
1.f. ~Predict winner of likely D state (choose "T" or "B" for each) (2 points for each correct pick)~
1.f.i. Colorado: B
1.f.ii. Maine: B
1.f.iii. Virginia: B
1.f.iv. New Mexico: B
1.g. ~Predict winner of likely R state (choose "T" or "B" for each) (2 points each correct pick)~
1.g.i. Montana: B
1.g.ii. Alaska: T
1.g.ii. South Carolina: T
1.g.ii. Missouri: T
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2. ~Senate Race (100 points max)~
2.a. Pick winning party (choose "R" or "D") (40 points): D
2.b. Predict total seats for winning party (provide exact number including VP) (12 points for exact, 8 if within range of 1, 6 if within range of 2, 4 if within range of 3, 2 if within range of 5): 52
2.c. ~Predict winner of toss-up Senate elections (choose "R" or "D") (4 points for each correct pick)~
2.c.i. Iowa (R-Ernst/D-Greenfield): D
2.c.ii. Georgia (R-Purdue/D-Ossof): R
2.c.iii. North Carolina (R-Tillis/D-Cunningham): D
2.c.iv. Maine (R-Collins/D-Gideon): D
2.c.v. Georgia runoff (R/D): D
2.c.vi. Montana (R-Daines/D-Bullock): R
2.c.vii. Kansas: (R-Marshall/D-Bollier): R
2.c.viii. Arizona (R-McSally/D-Kelly): D
2.c.ix. Alaska (R-Sullivan/D-Gross): R
2.c.x. Michigan (R-James/D-Peters): D
2.c.xi. Alabama (R-Tuberville/D-Jones): R
2.c.xii. Colorado (R-Gardner/D-Hickenlooper): D
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3. ~House Race (50 points max)~
3.a. Pick winning party (choose "R" or "D") (10 points): D
3.b. Predict margin of party victory (provide exact number) (40 points if within range of 10, 30 if within range of 20, 20 if within range of 30, 10 if within range of 50): 41
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:23am EST

re: agip

agip wrote:
Update. Registered users only. Feel free to send changes or new predictions:
Electoral College
LL: Biden 413-125
Flagpole: Biden 334
Agip: Biden 305-233
Runningart2004: Biden 418
Highhoppingworm: Biden 306
Breitleit Biden 279
Rigged: Trump 313
Sally Vix: Trump 283
15-50 Trump 279-259 B+7.1%
Welp: Biden 331
Trollminator: Biden 309
Texas EC
Sally Vix: R
Trollminator: R
Florida EC
Sally Vix: R
Trollminator: R
Senate Control:
Flagpole: D
Count Chocula: D
Highhoppingworm: D
Rigged: R, 51-49
Agip: 50-50, Biden breaks tie
Trollminator: D 52 seats with VP
House
Flagpole: Ds increase seats
Rigged: D, but lose 10 seats
Agip: Ds add 8 seats to 240
Trolliminator: Ds add to their seats for a new gap of 41
SC Senator:
LL: D
Agip: R
Flagpole: R
Count Chocula: D
Highhoppingworm: R
Trollminator: D
KY Senator:
Flagpole: R
Agip: $
Trollminator: R
AZ Senator
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
CO Senator
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
ME Senator:
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
NC Senator:
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
GA Senator Regular (Perdue/Ossoff):
Count Chocula: D
Agip: R
Trollminator: R
GA Senator Special
Fat Hurts: R
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
IA Senator:
Count Chocula: D
Agip: D
Trollminator: D
AL Senator:
Count Chocula; R
Agip: R
Trollminator: R

^ Updated

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:28am EST

re: Fat hurts

Fat hurts wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
IMO the postmark scheme is one simple thing they can easily do and get away with. I don't think it's easy to prove at all. Say postal offices across the country are simply holding mailed ballots in the back. There are no markings to prove that the USPS got a hold of them on time but simply didn't postmark and process. Dems have to catch wind of this quickly enough (within days) after Tuesday and organized some corroborating details to take up the complaint with authorities and state election boards. It's a huge messy undertaking and the GOP can just try to run out the clock. They can say that yes it was known that the USPS would experience delays. They can blame huge mail-in voting volumes for the issue. I think it's very hard to prove it is deliberate. As long as the GOP can get some kind of lead for trump (fraudulently if needed) the chances that it will be investigated and reversed in time are very little. And as you know, once trump is deemed the winner it's game over on going after anyone, trump will pardon everybody.
While phone banking we have also heard from voters that the USPS is postmarking mail weeks late.
This is really easy to prove. Just post a photo of the mail with a late postmark. Or better yet, give the mail to the District Attorney. If it is postmarked late, then the USPS is busted.

What if they do not postmark mail until after tuesday and simply hide it until then? They get to say they it was mailed after the deadline or it might have been mailed on time but was received too late by USPS to sort and process. Isn't that why they've been sending notices last week warning people that their ballots may not be received if mailed at that point? They could be holding ballots from 2 weeks ago that they will claim came in late.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:42am EST

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
This is really easy to prove. Just post a photo of the mail with a late postmark. Or better yet, give the mail to the District Attorney. If it is postmarked late, then the USPS is busted.
What if they do not postmark mail until after tuesday and simply hide it until then? They get to say they it was mailed after the deadline or it might have been mailed on time but was received too late by USPS to sort and process. Isn't that why they've been sending notices last week warning people that their ballots may not be received if mailed at that point? They could be holding ballots from 2 weeks ago that they will claim came in late.

After a quick twitter search... not saying I believe it, but this is an ongoing fear and seemingly easy one to squeeze by in this trumpian/covid climate.

https://twitter.com/ThePubliusUSA/status/1322230165154471937?s=20

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:42am EST

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
If anything this weekend's events confirms what we knew - with hundreds of tzees blocking traffic in NJ and those in Texas harassing the Biden/Harris campaign team by surrounding their bus. These traitors are sad little a$$holes who never felt heard, who were never breast fed as babies and never took their coats off in high school. They consider themselves victims, the outsiders. These people with resentments are losers in a meritocratic society. Instead of seeing the origin of their weaknesses and dealing with it, they let themselves be overcome by fear of some non-english speaking hispanic refugee with an 8th grade level education. It is ok because the potus also blames those people right. Instead of seeing trump con them openly like this and unite with other americans, they prefer to succumb to their hatred.
This is mostly the sad consequence of the GOP's inability to successfully govern. They should be touting their accomplishments under trump in comparison to Dems, but they can't so instead they help trump throw gas at a bunch of r@cists and welcome domestic terrorism. They are doing this openly with the exception of the 1 or 2 RINOs that have a backbone and job left.

You Dementia Joe supporters upset at the Trump trucks driving near the Biden bus in Texas need to first prove you were outraged at BLM/Antifa who shot the 3 Trump supporters in the head in Portland, Denver and Milwaukee before pretending to be upset about people driving. Also, have you seen the full clip of the Texas driving “incident”? It was the Biden car leaving its lane to hit the truck.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:43am EST

re: L L

L L wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
A lot of people have no way to get to a drop box. And in many states, it is illegal to give your ballot to someone else for dropping off. So USPS is your only choice.
If they have no way to get to a drop off box at any time, then they have no way to get to their prescribed polling location to vote in person during voting hours.
So, 100% of people who mail in their ballot (which is a new option) where never going to vote anyway by that logic.
But I think most could have gotten it to a drop box at some point.

What are you talking about? We have always had absentee ballots. There are lots of people who are physically unable to get to a polling place. They are still allowed to vote.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:44am EST

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
This is really easy to prove. Just post a photo of the mail with a late postmark. Or better yet, give the mail to the District Attorney. If it is postmarked late, then the USPS is busted.
What if they do not postmark mail until after tuesday and simply hide it until then?

That's different from what is stated in the tweet. The tweet is saying that people are already getting mail with late postmarks. That's why I think the tweet might be bogus.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:45am EST

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Kind of funny, but to be honest, my Spanish sounds like that.
Sure, but would you do what he did? :)

Fair point. No, I would not.

4 years ago 11/02/2020 7:45am EST

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
This is really easy to prove. Just post a photo of the mail with a late postmark. Or better yet, give the mail to the District Attorney. If it is postmarked late, then the USPS is busted.
What if they do not postmark mail until after tuesday and simply hide it until then? They get to say they it was mailed after the deadline or it might have been mailed on time but was received too late by USPS to sort and process. Isn't that why they've been sending notices last week warning people that their ballots may not be received if mailed at that point? They could be holding ballots from 2 weeks ago that they will claim came in late.

The problem, it seems to me, is that there are many potential witnesses - USPS workers. Too many to risk it, IMHO. I assume that the penalties for such tampering are harsh enough that people in a position to lead such a scheme are not going to take that risk.

Full disclosure - I have no expertise in this area.

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