rekrunner wrote:
Aragon wrote:
I again see nothing wrong in my "merely speculation". Because the margins are low and if one percent boost is a few placings in the final standing, using a product that has significantly less than 50 % chance of providing this edge is a rational decision if the likelihood of a negative outcome is considered low. It is almost like -- "Heads I win, tails I am no more worse off".
Earlier in this thread, we talked about some of the content in Hopkins, 1999 "Design and analysis of research on sport performance enhancement", and how that debunks "expert" estimates of 3 second gains for elites for 1500m.
Hopkins also explores the question of what is the minimum benefit that is deemed worthwhile to athletes, framing it not in terms of time, but in chances of winning.
This makes clear why athletes with lower chances of winning, will have a higher incentive to dope, to increase their chances of winning, compared to more talented athletes who are already winning with a high percentage naturally, due to realizing extreme talent through training. This means that a doped Ramzi and a clean El G is not necessarily a contradiction.
Highly talented athletes also face competition from other highly talented athletes, whose incentive to dope will be to beat those athletes as talented as themselves. Ramzi is incidentally proof that a doped athlete will beat the best clean competition available, even if that competition is more naturally talented and better trained than he was. Clearly, if they had wanted to win they would have also needed to dope - as El G may well have done to beat his competition, some of whom were undoubtedly doping in an era when there was no test for EPO. Your "logic" doesn't work and you also fail on the facts, as doping has been shown to occur consistently amongst the very top athletes in all sports.