Political betting podcast with Barnes Law. Fast forward to 7:50 min mark for the betting analysis.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stable-genius-feat-robert-barnes/id1478084613?i=1000496484449
Political betting podcast with Barnes Law. Fast forward to 7:50 min mark for the betting analysis.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stable-genius-feat-robert-barnes/id1478084613?i=1000496484449
Concerned Senior wrote:
Flagpole, I am sure you agree that it's humorous to see an old overweight guy, fly around the country (on our dime) and beg fools with his lies; just to stay out of future prison.
Well, I currently have my serious hat on. I don't currently find anything that Orange Buffoon does to be funny. I am sure my jovial self will return once Trump is voted out.
Fat hurts wrote:
538:
Ohio flipped to blue.
Iowa flipped to red.
Overall, I like that trade.
I am pessimistic about Ohio, but I hope it goes blue, of course. I think Ohio could go either way though I have called it for Trump. I would be more surprised to see Iowa go to Biden than Ohio. I don't expect my prediction to be 100% on the nose, so we will see. I went pretty conservative I think...didn't pick OH, IA, or GA for Biden. I do think though that it is more likely he wins those states than Trump wins FL or AZ or MI or WI or PA or NH or MN.
oldschoollrc wrote:
Possibly. Will Biden flip GA/FL/PA/etc. blue?
Possibly? You said that in response to Rigged saying Trump was going to flip MN to red.
Why do you think this? Polls have Biden up 5 or more points. Even Rigged's biased Trafalgar has Biden up 3 points. 538 gives Biden a 93% chance of winning that state. The state's Democrat for The Senate is up by the same amount. There are just no indications that Trump will win MN.
Flagpole wrote:
oldschoollrc wrote:
Possibly. Will Biden flip GA/FL/PA/etc. blue?
Possibly? You said that in response to Rigged saying Trump was going to flip MN to red.
Why do you think this? Polls have Biden up 5 or more points. Even Rigged's biased Trafalgar has Biden up 3 points. 538 gives Biden a 93% chance of winning that state. The state's Democrat for The Senate is up by the same amount. There are just no indications that Trump will win MN.
538 is very biased. To say otherwise is idiotic. Trafalgar has a more accurate prediction record.
It's going to be fun to see you cry when Trump wins next week.
The problem is less Trump than the 40% of Americans who support him. If we substitute the name "Hitler" for "Trump" their nature is made plain. America is revealed as a democratic failure where prejudice and ignorance holds sway over millions. Even if Trump is defeated the knowledge of what American society and culture has become cannot be forgotten. "Exceptionalism" of the most repellent kind.
Trump might flip another another state, NV.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1322035771210043393
Trump might flip NV. That makes 3: NH, MN & NV. Wow.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1322035771210043393
Trollminator wrote:
https://twitter.com/middleageriot/status/1321846242213769216?s=21
What makes it even more embarrassing is that t's a prop given to her for the photo shoot.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trump might flip another another state, NV.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1322035771210043393
That's quite a claim with ZERO polls with Trump ahead, what a model!
That is the most garbage twitter account of all time.
Why are no Cheeto worshippers putting their predictions out there? Maybe I missed them given how frequently this thread updates but I haven’t seen anything.
Also... I keep seeing the claim that Trafalgar has a much better record than Silver. What is backing this claim? You can’t hang everything on 2016 success. Did Trafalgar accurately predict the blue tsunami in the 2018 midterms? I know he predicted DeSantis but that wasn’t exactly a controversial prediction. I am just curious as I thought Trafalgar didn’t really focus on polling until after they got a lot of attention in 2016. Regardless it seems a bit disingenuous to claim mastery over polling due to one successful cycle.
Armstronglivs wrote:
The problem is less Trump than the 40% of Americans who support him. If we substitute the name "Hitler" for "Trump" their nature is made plain. America is revealed as a democratic failure where prejudice and ignorance holds sway over millions. Even if Trump is defeated the knowledge of what American society and culture has become cannot be forgotten. "Exceptionalism" of the most repellent kind.
Great post.. I want to be wrong but I think it’s either we continue sliding down to to a full plutocracy with another 4 years of trump or we slow things down and experience a slower death of our democracy under Biden and future “normal” presidents. The kinds of changes we need are systemic and drastic.. constitutional changes that will likely not happen because of the worsening divisiveness and political structure. It’s set up for failure and our democracy isn’t adapting or maturing.
Trollminator wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
The problem is less Trump than the 40% of Americans who support him. If we substitute the name "Hitler" for "Trump" their nature is made plain. America is revealed as a democratic failure where prejudice and ignorance holds sway over millions. Even if Trump is defeated the knowledge of what American society and culture has become cannot be forgotten. "Exceptionalism" of the most repellent kind.
Great post.. I want to be wrong but I think it’s either we continue sliding down to to a full plutocracy with another 4 years of trump or we slow things down and experience a slower death of our democracy under Biden and future “normal” presidents. The kinds of changes we need are systemic and drastic.. constitutional changes that will likely not happen because of the worsening divisiveness and political structure. It’s set up for failure and our democracy isn’t adapting or maturing.
We don't have a democracy, we have a representative democracy......a federal democratic republic.
It allows Presidents to be elected with less than 50% support (Clinton twice). It allows Presidents to be elected with fewer votes than the opponent (Bush, Trump). Thank you Dakotas!
It currently gives the minority power absolutely no power. 60% should be the standard for all Congressional votes and appointments.
Alan
I think we have to give the press and social media some kudos here...they learned from 2016 and did better.
Twitter took the lead and put warnigns on false statements.
FB put limits on political ads
the mainstream media correctly rejected the hunter biden story.
Compared to the free-for-all in 2016, this is better. Sure, most magas are woefully misinformed and believe utter garbage, but the lies were more contained inside the right wing bubble of stupidity.
I'm still deeply worried about whether democracy can work in the age of social media, but this was better than last time, so that's good.
Runningart2004 wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Great post.. I want to be wrong but I think it’s either we continue sliding down to to a full plutocracy with another 4 years of trump or we slow things down and experience a slower death of our democracy under Biden and future “normal” presidents. The kinds of changes we need are systemic and drastic.. constitutional changes that will likely not happen because of the worsening divisiveness and political structure. It’s set up for failure and our democracy isn’t adapting or maturing.
We don't have a democracy, we have a representative democracy......a federal democratic republic.
It allows Presidents to be elected with less than 50% support (Clinton twice). It allows Presidents to be elected with fewer votes than the opponent (Bush, Trump). Thank you Dakotas!
It currently gives the minority power absolutely no power. 60% should be the standard for all Congressional votes and appointments.
Alan
the Rs do not work in good faith. If the 60% rule were put back in the senate, a president Biden would have zero judges confirmed, ever.
agip wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
We don't have a democracy, we have a representative democracy......a federal democratic republic.
It allows Presidents to be elected with less than 50% support (Clinton twice). It allows Presidents to be elected with fewer votes than the opponent (Bush, Trump). Thank you Dakotas!
It currently gives the minority power absolutely no power. 60% should be the standard for all Congressional votes and appointments.
Alan
the Rs do not work in good faith. If the 60% rule were put back in the senate, a president Biden would have zero judges confirmed, ever.
This is why we fail. BOTH parties are guilty. NEITHER work in good faith unless forced too.
Change the rules back to normalcy. Then require 100% vote to change them again.
We've gone from a government of compromise to one of extremes jerking left and right.
The general population are lemmings. They follow Trump or AOC or Biden because they don't know any better and are immensely stupid on both sides.
Alan
highhoppingworm wrote:
That is the most garbage twitter account of all time.
Why are no Cheeto worshippers putting their predictions out there? Maybe I missed them given how frequently this thread updates but I haven’t seen anything.
Also... I keep seeing the claim that Trafalgar has a much better record than Silver. What is backing this claim? You can’t hang everything on 2016 success. Did Trafalgar accurately predict the blue tsunami in the 2018 midterms? I know he predicted DeSantis but that wasn’t exactly a controversial prediction. I am just curious as I thought Trafalgar didn’t really focus on polling until after they got a lot of attention in 2016. Regardless it seems a bit disingenuous to claim mastery over polling due to one successful cycle.
Trafalgar got lucky, And so now they are hoping to ride that luck again. CNN, who tilt too far left at times, did have a segment in which they examined where the polls were prior to election and how wrong they were based on the 2016 results. And they then applied those same errors to the current polling numbers....
Guess what Rigged? Biden still had over 300 EVs.
Runningart2004 wrote:
agip wrote:
the Rs do not work in good faith. If the 60% rule were put back in the senate, a president Biden would have zero judges confirmed, ever.
This is why we fail. BOTH parties are guilty. NEITHER work in good faith unless forced too.
Change the rules back to normalcy. Then require 100% vote to change them again.
We've gone from a government of compromise to one of extremes jerking left and right.
The general population are lemmings. They follow Trump or AOC or Biden because they don't know any better and are immensely stupid on both sides.
Alan
you can't both-sides this one.
Rs don't play fair. They won't compromise. They won't follow norms and rules. Your wish list is just that - a wish list that Mitch and his krew would laugh at you for suggesting.
And there is no 'normalcy.' The senate has always changed its rules from time to time. Which 'normal' do we go back to?
Four more days! Four more days!
Four more days! Four more days!