"borders"
Darned surfboarders around here are always looking for attention.
"borders"
Darned surfboarders around here are always looking for attention.
1101 wrote:
agip wrote:
funny how rigged, sally, and other trumpists aren't screaming about open borders, gun confiscation and whatnot anymore. All they have is Hunter Biden and...and...calling Joe senile.
Dems chose the right guy for 2020.
Why in the world would they be screaming about gun confiscation? I thought that Obama confiscated everyone's guns. What's left to argue about?
And open boarders? Are you kidding? With that massive wall that the Mexicans built for us, nobody is getting in anymore. Again, what's left to argue about?
Good points!
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trump has both FL & NC on lock. PA is trending in Trump's direction. /
Some unclear nomenclature:
Can you explain what "on lock" and "trending" mean to you?
- Is 80% a lock, is 66% a lock is 51% a lock?
- Is going from 13% chance to 15% "trending"?
Sally Vix wrote:
I would not be opposed to having a limit on the number of years a justice can serve. What happened with RBG was pretty sad. I believe Obama tried to get her to resign during his presidency to allow him to nominate her replacement and she resisted. These last few years everyone kept wondering with each of her hospitalizations if this was "it." Again, I can accept the partisanship (though not agree with it) in Congress but to have the top court in the land so partisan just makes a mockery of the judicial system. Both sides are to blame. Just a shame.
Not 'both sides', the people are to blame.
You are dropping down the democracy rankings because you still adhere to old values and constitutions.
Only the people have the power to change that
I am Sam wrote:
You are dropping down the democracy rankings because you still adhere to old values and constitutions.
Trivia question: What country has the *second-oldest* written constitution (that's still in effect)?
kibitzer wrote:
I am Sam wrote:
You are dropping down the democracy rankings because you still adhere to old values and constitutions.
Trivia question: What country has the *second-oldest* written constitution (that's still in effect)?
Norway?
To be clear, I'm referring to a single document called that country's "constitution" (or something similar).
kibitzer wrote:
To be clear, I'm referring to a single document called that country's "constitution" (or something similar).
So, The Constitution of the Kingdom of Norway?
May 17, 1814 from what I can see.
1101 wrote:
So, The Constitution of the Kingdom of Norway?
Ja, selvfølgelig!
Looks like PA GOP won't get its ballot deadline complaint heard by the SCOTUS. +1 for voter enfranchisement.
Consistencies wrote:
Curious if anyone knows why the founders decided that the president should pick the SC justices (combined with a low bar approval from the senate)? In the era of Trump, I have way less respect for the electorate than ever before, but....the people get to directly pick the other two branches of federal government (and directly pick non-federal justices). Why was it decided that one of the branches should get to directly pick the other? I'm not even sure that it would make things any better, but holding occasional elections to keep only 9 seats filled is certainly easily logistically possible. Despite what I think of electorate, I think that I'd still prefer that to yet another thing for Congress and POTUS to f*** around with.
I don't have the answer to this question, but I think we need to remember two things.
First, the Founders did not trust the "regular" people. Well, not all Founders, but most of them. (Jefferson might be an exception.) So they didn't want the regular people to have any power to choose or remove the Supreme Court Justices. The Senate was considered more desirable than the House, because it was not directly elected. And Neither was the President.
The second thing is that they did not anticipate the partisan politics we see today. In particular, they thought the President would be above any partisan division, because the electors would function as a buffer between the popular will and the office. And they thought that was necessary in order to shield the highest office from the irrational passion the regular people.
So the kind of system some states use in the selection of their state supreme courts was against the Founders' idea about the government.
Alright, time for predictions!
In this election contest, the poster with the highest score wins. There are 3 races to predict (1. Presidential, 2) Senate, 3) House), each with predictions worth a certain amount of points. 300 is a perfect score. Instructions are straightforward. Do not mess with the characters in the questions, simply reply to this post and add your responses as indicated at the end of each (e.g. T for 1.a., a for 1.c., 330 for 1.d., D for 2.a.). Blank responses = no points.
You have until Monday evening to post your final answers, feel free to post prelim predictions if you wish in the meantime. On election day I will share everyone's responses. I will calculate scores after the election whenever the results are actually determined.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. ~Presidential Race (150 points max)~
1.a. Pick winner ("choose "T" or "B") (40 points):
1.b. Pick winner of popular vote ("choose "T" or "B") (8 points):
1.c. Predict margin of popular vote victory by selecting from one of the following letters (8 points for correct response): "a" < 1 million; "b" 1-2 million; "c" 3-5 million; "d" 5-7 million; "e" 7-10 million; "f" 10+ million
1.d. Predict winner's total EC votes (provide exact number) (30 points for exact, 15 if within range of 10, 10 if within range of 30, 5 if within range of 50):
1.e. ~Predict winner of toss-up states (choose "T" or "B" for each) (4 points for each correct pick) ~
1.e.i. Iowa:
1.e.ii. Georgia:
1.e.ii. Ohio:
1.e.iv. Florida:
1.e.v. North Carolina:
1.e.vi. Texas:
1.e.vii. Arizona:
1.e.viii. Pennsylvania:
1.e.ix. Nevada:
1.e.x. Michigan:
1.e.xi. Minnesota:
1.e.xii. New Hampshire:
1.f. ~Predict winner of likely D state (choose "T" or "B" for each) (2 points for each correct pick)~
1.f.i. Colorado:
1.f.ii. Maine:
1.f.iii. Virginia:
1.f.iv. New Mexico:
1.g. ~Predict winner of likely R state (choose "T" or "B" for each) (2 points each correct pick)~
1.g.i. Montana:
1.g.ii. Alaska:
1.g.ii. South Carolina:
1.g.ii. Missouri:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2. ~Senate Race (100 points max)~
2.a. Pick winning party (choose "R" or "D") (40 points):
2.b. Predict total seats for winning party (provide exact number including VP) (12 points for exact, 8 if within range of 1, 6 if within range of 2, 4 if within range of 3, 2 if within range of 5):
2.c. ~Predict winner of toss-up Senate elections (choose "R" or "D") (4 points for each correct pick)~
2.c.i. Iowa (R-Ernst/D-Greenfield):
2.c.ii. Georgia (R-Purdue/D-Ossof):
2.c.iii. North Carolina (R-Tillis/D-Cunningham):
2.c.iv. Maine (R-Collins/D-Gideon):
2.c.v. Georgia runoff (R/D):
2.c.vi. Montana (R-Daines/D-Bullock):
2.c.vii. Kansas: (R-Marshall/D-Bollier):
2.c.viii. Arizona (R-McSally/D-Kelly):
2.c.ix. Alaska (R-Sullivan/D-Gross):
2.c.x. Michigan (R-James/D-Peters):
2.c.xi. Alabama (R-Tuberville/D-Jones):
2.c.xii. Colorado (R-Gardner/D-Hickenlooper):
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3. ~House Race (50 points max)~
3.a. Pick winning party (choose "R" or "D") (10 points):
3.b. Predict margin of party victory (provide exact number) (40 points if within range of 10, 30 if within range of 20, 20 if within range of 30, 10 if within range of 50):
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
kibitzer wrote:
I am Sam wrote:
You are dropping down the democracy rankings because you still adhere to old values and constitutions.
Trivia question: What country has the *second-oldest* written constitution (that's still in effect)?
That should be the US.
The oldest is Belgium I think.
And that is part of the whole problem. The US system was never reformed or challenged. Most other countries had all kind of changes over centuries and most of them are a lot younger in their newest iteration.
Dementia Don doesn’t remember him
https://twitter.com/aynrandpaulryan/status/1321570440305762304?s=21
1101 wrote:
agip wrote:
funny how rigged, sally, and other trumpists aren't screaming about open borders, gun confiscation and whatnot anymore. All they have is Hunter Biden and...and...calling Joe senile.
Dems chose the right guy for 2020.
Why in the world would they be screaming about gun confiscation? I thought that Obama confiscated everyone's guns. What's left to argue about?
And open boarders? Are you kidding? With that massive wall that the Mexicans built for us, nobody is getting in anymore. Again, what's left to argue about?
Very solid points. Very solid.
Fat hurts wrote:
1101 wrote:
Why in the world would they be screaming about gun confiscation? I thought that Obama confiscated everyone's guns. What's left to argue about?
And open boarders? Are you kidding? With that massive wall that the Mexicans built for us, nobody is getting in anymore. Again, what's left to argue about?
Good points!
Ha! I answered him with the same tone before I read your answer to him. Nice!
