Armstronglivs wrote:
This place is a disease. Like America. That's what Trump has done.
That is very true and I'm happy to be away right now.
Armstronglivs wrote:
This place is a disease. Like America. That's what Trump has done.
That is very true and I'm happy to be away right now.
law and order SVU wrote:
Check out this great news from the White House! THEY DID IT!!! THEY ENDED THE PANDEMIC!!!!!!! HELL YEAH!!!
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-6bc5-d2df-adff-6fdfff5c0000
ha ha ha ha.
Like nobody here pushing Trump's agenda being willing to wager money on a Trump win, they will avoid this as well. There is no way to spin this. So, avoid the topic they must.
COWARDS.
New highs for Joe on 538 right now:
89% in the forecast, with GA and IA in blue now. Although only by a hair.
WI: 94%
MI: 94%
MN: 94%
The upper midwest seems firm.
PA is still the problem, at 86%, but only 5 pts in the vote count. 5 pts isn't enough to be safe.
Senate between 74-78% for Ds, depending on the model. This is unch for a long time.
House is 96% for the Ds.
Nate has cautioned against the polls in the last few days of the election...he thinks most firms will feel pressure not to release outlier polls even if that is what their numbers show. Because that would be embarassing if incorrect. So pollsters might manipulate the numbers in their final polls to be close to the 538 consensus.
agip wrote:
Nate has cautioned against the polls in the last few days of the election...he thinks most firms will feel pressure not to release outlier polls even if that is what their numbers show. Because that would be embarassing if incorrect. So pollsters might manipulate the numbers in their final polls to be close to the 538 consensus.
A good heads-up. Thanks.
In other words: Be skeptical of the polls (and *whatever* they're showing) in this last week before 11/3. The proof of the pudding is in the eating; the proof of the opinions is in the voting.
agip wrote:
Nate has cautioned against the polls in the last few days of the election...he thinks most firms will feel pressure not to release outlier polls even if that is what their numbers show. Because that would be embarassing if incorrect. So pollsters might manipulate the numbers in their final polls to be close to the 538 consensus.
Known as "demand characteristics" for anyone interested.
L L wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/28/wisconsin-michigan-poll-post-abc/?arc404=trueA month or so ago, Biden had a clear lead in Michigan and it seemed like Wisconsin was up for grabs.
Now it's the opposite.
What that tells me is at this point either one can win both states.
Even if Biden will "probably" win both.
Side note: I feel bad for all of the local candidates putting their ads on TV this week after the majority of people have already voted.
538 has Biden winning Michigan with the greatest of ease. The latest Fox News poll (A+ rating) has Biden +12.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Nate has cautioned against the polls in the last few days of the election...he thinks most firms will feel pressure not to release outlier polls even if that is what their numbers show. Because that would be embarassing if incorrect. So pollsters might manipulate the numbers in their final polls to be close to the 538 consensus.
Known as "demand characteristics" for anyone interested.
and in Pollinglandia they call it 'herding'
Trollminator wrote:
https://twitter.com/TheDailyEdge/status/1321380409486299136?s=20
Whoa, this just shouldn't happen.
agip wrote:
New highs for Joe on 538 right now:
MI: 94%
I want to drill down on this and compare it to the Washington Post article I linked.
That said the Wash Post-ABC poll had Biden up 5 points among registered voters.
538 uses the 7 point edge of likely voters plus other polls to get it's 94% chance.
One of those other polls is Fox News giving Joe a 12 point advantage in Michigan.
The difference in +12 and +5 is a enough not feel comfortable about any polls.
Especially considering the difference in the polls and the results four years ago.
The difference in polls and results is turnout.
I really believe that favors Democrats this time.
Last time, all of these odds heavily favored Hillary and some people may have slacked, thinking she had it in the bag.
No one has faith in the polls now. And that may be a good thing. They know they have to vote. And they are voting in droves already.
Rasmussen Reports says it's gone from a Biden's double digit lead to a Trump's one point lead in its poll.
L L wrote:
A month or so ago, Biden had a clear lead in Michigan and it seemed like Wisconsin was up for grabs.
Now it's the opposite.
What that tells me is at this point either one can win both states.
Even if Biden will "probably" win both.
Side note: I feel bad for all of the local candidates putting their ads on TV this week after the majority of people have already voted.
The Washington Post poll has Biden +7 in Michigan (about where he's been) and +17 in Wisconsin which is likely a strange outlier or less likely an enormous shift toward Biden.
Wisconsin is in the midst of a COVID surge which analysts think boosts Biden a couple points, but this is about 10 points off the polling average.
I'm going to pull a Rigged and show a poll that has Trump leading 49-45 in Michigan.
https://mirsnews.com/pdfs/poll_cross_tabs/1603227211.pdf
I got this poll from 538 as it is baked into their average.
And Trafalgar Group has Trump up 2.
There are reasons it's not 99% for Biden.
L L wrote:
agip wrote:
New highs for Joe on 538 right now:
MI: 94%
I want to drill down on this and compare it to the Washington Post article I linked.
That said the Wash Post-ABC poll had Biden up 5 points among registered voters.
538 uses the 7 point edge of likely voters plus other polls to get it's 94% chance.
One of those other polls is Fox News giving Joe a 12 point advantage in Michigan.
The difference in +12 and +5 is a enough not feel comfortable about any polls.
Especially considering the difference in the polls and the results four years ago.
The difference in polls and results is turnout.
I really believe that favors Democrats this time.
Last time, all of these odds heavily favored Hillary and some people may have slacked, thinking she had it in the bag.
No one has faith in the polls now. And that may be a good thing. They know they have to vote. And they are voting in droves already.
footnote:
538's 'forecast' (now at 88%), is not from the same data as the 'polling average' which is at 8.6%.
The forecast is put together with state polling and some secret sauce. No national polling.
The polling average is the reverse: all national polls, no state polls.
What's the latest on PA anyone? Thought I saw some stats on total votes so far and what the party affiliation for those voters were.
Trollminator wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
And of course, you and your buddies sill ignore the actual corruption:
https://nypost.com/2020/10/27/hunter-biden-emails-tony-bobulinski-says-he-was-warned-about-going-public/Where is the actual evidence? Want us to take Rudy, Tucker, ZeroHedge and the NY Post seriously? Come on, man.
Yep...absolutely ridiculous. Don't forget that the trustworthy Steve Bannon was involved in this nonsense too.
Igy, you are a sucker. Maybe you should give Power of Attorney to someone in your family.
I believe Biden will sweep these states.
But four years ago I put up a map where Trump could win 270-268 and really got laughed at by Flagpole.
I didn't say he would probably win, I just showed a path where he could win.
My map didn't have him winning MI or PA.
We were all in shock the next day.
And to remind everyone, this IS 2020.
How could the year go stranger?
Amazing story, especially for Igy and others who believe right wing media.
It goes through the right wing media foodchain, and tells how trumpers have had no success peddling the hunter biden story at the top end (fox, wsj) so they have been sinking lower and lower on the food chain to the absolute dregs.
Bottom line is that there is no alleged crime, there certainly is no evidence of a crime, there is nothing other than some emails. But there are enough conspiracy minded websites that need clicks to keep it alive. Even though no one can quite explain what the scandal is.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/28/trump-conspiracy-theoryhunter-biden-433131