Not sure why TBH but this one hit home.
Not sure why TBH but this one hit home.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Uncle Joe looks to be just another..../
Joe is so corrupt that after 50 years of public life, including 8 as VP, all the GOP has to show for their accusations is a claim that he's riding Amtrak, lol. Meanwhile your orange god is crimin' daily. You really need to get out of your old man bunker.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-amtrak-trips-prompt-house-gop-questions-on-costs-impact-on-railroad-operationsformerly present wrote:
Not sure why TBH but this one hit home.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MwvdsM3zrM
It's sad that this message even needs to be sent and heard... One thing is for sure, many of us will never forget how the loyalty of the republican base has been so thoroughly tested and how little they budged, even as their leader has consistently violated every single conservative principle.
The “October Surprise” unleashed by President Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani has turned out to be a dud of epic proportions—so sketchy that the author of the New York Post’s article reportedly refused to add his name to the byline. Despite glaring credibility issues, Giuliani argued the story should be widely disseminated. “Even if it isn’t accurate, the American people are entitled to know it,” he said.
The Trump administration’s trusty bedfellows at the Kremlin apparently adhere to the same philosophy. Russian state media outlets are going overboard to promote and legitimize the Hunter Biden allegations. Their desire to see Donald J. Trump re-elected is unwavering.
98,000 views in 15 hours:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lh1gjwz0Mw
Photo of massive crowd at Florida Trump rally is really from a Swiss music festival:
suree wrote:
I'm honestly shocked by some of you...
Why are you so trusting in the polls? Have we forgotten 2016 so soon? Don't you remember Trump was going to lose 9 battleground states, only to win all of them?
You don't even take the time to analyze the methodology or demographics of these polls...
Fact is, polls are irrelevant. Momentum is all that matters.
I'm curious how you assess "momentum".
I'd expect it to (eventually) show up as a trend in the polling data, but it's not clear that's happening and it would contradict the claim that "polls are irrelevant".
Polls may be biased or have large uncertainties, but estimating how people plan to vote by asking them how they plan to vote seems to be a self evidently relevant technique.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
—Rudy Guiliani
Are you reassured by the fact that Rudy himself has said that there's only a 50% chance that he has been working with a Russian agent to dig up dirt on Biden? Because to me, it's like when a cop pulls over someone who's been driving a little wobbly and asks the driver how much he's had to drink. Whatever answer the driver gives, you can pretty reliably multiply it by 3 to get an accurate answer.
And if you believe this nonesense, then the FBI has had this laptop since last December. Are you saying that the FBI has been sitting on evidence of child pornography without doing anything about it for 10 months? And if the FBI has the laptop and it's as damning as you seem to think, why would Rudy now go to the Delaware State Police? Isn't the FBI competent to investigate and prosecute child pornography cases?
Rudy the Fondler mentions his buddy Bernard Kerik in that piece you quoted. Remember that Kerik pled guilty to 8 felonies, including tax fraud and lying. It's quite a respectable bunch that you've thrown your hat in with.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/rudy-giuliani-says-theres-only-5050-chance-i-worked-with-a-russian-spy-to-dig-dirt-on-bidensMonkeys typing wrote:
suree wrote:
I'm honestly shocked by some of you...
Why are you so trusting in the polls? Have we forgotten 2016 so soon? Don't you remember Trump was going to lose 9 battleground states, only to win all of them?
You don't even take the time to analyze the methodology or demographics of these polls...
Fact is, polls are irrelevant. Momentum is all that matters.
I'm curious how you assess "momentum".
I'd expect it to (eventually) show up as a trend in the polling data, but it's not clear that's happening and it would contradict the claim that "polls are irrelevant".
Polls may be biased or have large uncertainties, but estimating how people plan to vote by asking them how they plan to vote seems to be a self evidently relevant technique.
Polls are almost always correct.
In 2016 a few state polls were not. The national polls were dead-on.
Your view seems to be that we should ignore the quite accurate polling from dozens of elections...and pay attention only to those few inaccurate state polls in 2016.
your view makes no sense.
johnny99 wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
—Rudy Guiliani
Are you reassured by the fact that Rudy himself has said that there's only a 50% chance that he has been working with a Russian agent to dig up dirt on Biden? Because to me, it's like when a cop pulls over someone who's been driving a little wobbly and asks the driver how much he's had to drink. Whatever answer the driver gives, you can pretty reliably multiply it by 3 to get an accurate answer.
And if you believe this nonesense, then the FBI has had this laptop since last December. Are you saying that the FBI has been sitting on evidence of child pornography without doing anything about it for 10 months? And if the FBI has the laptop and it's as damning as you seem to think, why would Rudy now go to the Delaware State Police? Isn't the FBI competent to investigate and prosecute child pornography cases?
Rudy the Fondler mentions his buddy Bernard Kerik in that piece you quoted. Remember that Kerik pled guilty to 8 felonies, including tax fraud and lying. It's quite a respectable bunch that you've thrown your hat in with.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/rudy-giuliani-says-theres-only-5050-chance-i-worked-with-a-russian-spy-to-dig-dirt-on-bidens
and note Rudy's complete willingness to collude with Russian intelligence to help trump.
Continuing the trump campaign's long history of collusion with Russia.
Traitors.
I have lost respect for you Ghost wrote:
Ghost, I've been reading/following you on Lets Run for years and really respected you for all your running history and wisdom. But when it comes to this pro-Trump garbage and outright lies about Biden, I have lost that respect for you. It hurts me to say that.
I don't like the wacko-left either. But I know right from wrong. Trump and his lies and you=all wrong.
I still hope for the best with your health issues.
Sadly I agree. I often argued With Ghost and took different political stances in the past but our conversation was always respectful.
I’ve watched his recent spewings and lost all respect also.
As for health issues, I had no idea, what’s going on? Get well soon.
suree wrote:
Just Wundrin wrote:
Ummm . . . momentum as measured by . . . polls?
lol you really don't get it, do you?
Enlighten me. Define "momentum".
johnny99 wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
—Rudy Guiliani
Are you reassured by the fact that Rudy himself has said that there's only a 50% chance that he has been working with a Russian agent to dig up dirt on Biden? Because to me, it's like when a cop pulls over someone who's been driving a little wobbly and asks the driver how much he's had to drink. Whatever answer the driver gives, you can pretty reliably multiply it by 3 to get an accurate answer.
And if you believe this nonesense, then the FBI has had this laptop since last December. Are you saying that the FBI has been sitting on evidence of child pornography without doing anything about it for 10 months? And if the FBI has the laptop and it's as damning as you seem to think, why would Rudy now go to the Delaware State Police? Isn't the FBI competent to investigate and prosecute child pornography cases?
Rudy the Fondler mentions his buddy Bernard Kerik in that piece you quoted. Remember that Kerik pled guilty to 8 felonies, including tax fraud and lying. It's quite a respectable bunch that you've thrown your hat in with.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/rudy-giuliani-says-theres-only-5050-chance-i-worked-with-a-russian-spy-to-dig-dirt-on-bidens
Good post. I don’t think Ghost will tackle the issues you’ve raised he seems happy to push a narrative that suits his side and nothing else. No critical thinking.
suree wrote:
I'm honestly shocked by some of you...
Why are you so trusting in the polls? Have we forgotten 2016 so soon? Don't you remember Trump was going to lose 9 battleground states, only to win all of them?
You don't even take the time to analyze the methodology or demographics of these polls...
Fact is, polls are irrelevant. Momentum is all that matters.
1) Polls are not irrelevant. They are a snapshot in time, not a predictor.
2) This is not 2016. For one thing, the polls were not as far off in 2016 as Trump supporters like to say. Hillary won the popular vote which was predicted, and she lost the election due to margin of error loss in some key states. Perfect storm against her...Russian interference, Trump cheating, Stein and Johnson, Comey right at the end.
3) Most of these pollsters have changed how they do things based on 2016, and many of them were right on in 2018.
4) The early voting push alone this time makes for a less-likely chance of some election eve bombshell that will sway the election.
Time for the daily check of The Gap: currently at 11.3 percentage points.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
I guess it bears repetition: The Gap is *not* a statement about voting propensity, but about whether people approve or disapprove of the President. (People could disapprove of him and still vote to re-elect him. And vice versa, of course.)
He has never yet had a single day of 50% (or higher) approval. I can't imagine that he will have one in the rest of this four-year term.
L L wrote:
...
Lose them and Biden would lead 270-268.
If that's the final tally either way, it's civil war.
...
Melodrama much?
agip wrote:
RCP has its no-tossup map at 357-181
FL, GA, NC, AZ to Joe.
The difference between RCP and 270 to win is RCP has Biden ahead in GA (16) and IA (6) where 270 has those states red now (but blue last week).
And 270 had Ohio blue two weeks ago (375 total for Biden) and they both now have it red.
No state has shifted from red to blue in polling the last couple weeks in any of these consolidated polls.
The pattern is following 2016 exactly except Joe has bigger leads in each state than Hillary did.
Big enough?
L L wrote:
agip wrote:
RCP has its no-tossup map at 357-181
FL, GA, NC, AZ to Joe.
The difference between RCP and 270 to win is RCP has Biden ahead in GA (16) and IA (6) where 270 has those states red now (but blue last week).
And 270 had Ohio blue two weeks ago (375 total for Biden) and they both now have it red.
No state has shifted from red to blue in polling the last couple weeks in any of these consolidated polls.
The pattern is following 2016 exactly except Joe has bigger leads in each state than Hillary did.
Big enough?
bottom line, Joe is up 10% in the national polls.
national polls are fairly dependable.
can't lose the electoral college when you are 10 points up. Or 7 points up. Or 6 points up.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
A message from the presidential election guru:
https://twitter.com/primarymodel16/status/1318883405245939715KAG2020
Good luck with that.
Just Wundrin wrote:
L L wrote:
...
Lose them and Biden would lead 270-268.
If that's the final tally either way, it's civil war.
...
Melodrama much?
the nation has benefitted from presidents and politicians 100% in favor of a regular transference of power. That may be changing.
If a president refuses to accept a regular transfer of power after a loss, he will still be removed from power.
But if he then goes on the teevee and shouts all day 'liberate Michigan' 'liberate Oregon' 'liberate Wisconsin' then it's a different ball game and there will be armed rebellion against teh Federal government.
How much armed rebellion? That's the question.
No civil war is going to happen. Sadly, we may see some domestic terrorism and hate crimes but, no full blown conflict. The military will follow the lawful orders of the duly elected President. The cops will also toe the line.