I’m actually interested in seeing a real wager here. Would someone actually put their money where their mouth is? At 91% certainty surely you would be willing to place a substantial wager at even money.
I’m actually interested in seeing a real wager here. Would someone actually put their money where their mouth is? At 91% certainty surely you would be willing to place a substantial wager at even money.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:]
Nobody goes to Dementia Joe's "rallies." He cannot generate any enthusiasm and hides in the basement multiple days per week.
Enjoy your loss.
You post a lot of dumb stuff, but this belongs near the top of your crap pile. The CDC has specifically said rallies like the ones held by your boy are extremely dangerous. Super spreaders. Trump isn't even hiding the fact that he doesn't care about the dummies that love him.
I get you just like to troll. Definitely get a kick out of watching everyone squirm. But looking forward to your "election was RIGGED, voter fraud, blah blah blah"
If Trump wins, Libs don't just lose. We all lose. But the American I know, although full of idiots, is still great enough to recognize horse bleep when they see it. Trump is that horse bleep.
highhoppingworm wrote:
I’m actually interested in seeing a real wager here. Would someone actually put their money where their mouth is? At 91% certainty surely you would be willing to place a substantial wager at even money.
Good point. Wondering if this is something we can organize. Some kind of pool. Any of your loud-mouth trumptards feel good enough about your boy that you would put money on it. I'm a teacher working pay check to pay check and I'd feel real good about betting $1000 that Biden takes it comfortably.
Ok. I don’t gamble at this point for many reasons but would be perfectly happy to broker any wagers that folks want to make. My identity isn’t secretive on this message board so I am would be willing to collect info from folks under my real and public email address.
It sounds like I have a Biden person willing to throw down 1k... anyone on the Trump side? If so, I’ll share my details on this thread and you can email me your personal info with verification.
15_50 wrote:
thank god this will all be over soon enough...
this thread has become an argument about which poll, polls, pundit to listen to and last i checked no one can know the future... everyone is just guessing. (some more educated guesses than others).
I agree. Arguing about polls is quite boring.
The mathematics and methodology of polls is mildly interesting but that's not what has been discussed of late.
I don't think I saw anyone post this update on the closest senate race in the country.
It looks like Republican Joni Ernst is going down in Iowa and it is due to her flubbing the most basic Iowa question you can get (corn and soybean prices). Note how thoroughly the Democrat answers the question and how bad Ernst did with the same question. Ernst should not only know the answer because she grew up on a farm and represents Iowa, but she also serves on the agriculture committee. This made a huge splash in Iowa.
Trump seems to be leading in the polls the same states he was leading four years ago.
Biden seems to be leading in the same states Hillary was leading four years ago.
And the feds have announced that the Russians (and Iran) are interfering in our election, just as we heard four years ago before the election.
I know a number of circumstances are different, but those items are eerily similar.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
The latest Fox News poll from yesterday (A+ rating) has Biden at +12 in MI. This gives Biden a 92% chance of winning.
Fox New polls are crap too, way off in 2016. Using Nate Plastic's rating system is laughable. Trafalgar has a much better track record yet, Nate gives them a C- rating or so. 538 dings any pollster that won't go along with his numbers- that's the game he he plays. Peoples Pundit, Trafalgar & IBD/TIPP & Barnes Law have called the last presidential election correctly.
You libs need to start focusing on the pollsters that were correct in 2016 & 2018.
You sound like an idiot when you say "the polls were wrong in 2016"?
So define wrong? If the polls were off by 1% are they wrong? 2%? What is your measure?
RCP 2016
Election : Clinton 48.2%
Election: Trump 46.1%
Clinton: 2.1%
Avg polls: Clinton 46.8
Avg pols: Trump: 43.6
Clinton: 3.2%
Seems pretty spot on to me you idiot.
Biden is polling about twice the lead that Clinton had. And more importantly hitting over 50%. It does no good to have a 10pt lead in the polls if it's 45-35 with 20% undecided.
Biden 333
Alan
L L wrote:
Trump seems to be leading in the polls the same states he was leading four years ago.
Biden seems to be leading in the same states Hillary was leading four years ago.
And the feds have announced that the Russians (and Iran) are interfering in our election, just as we heard four years ago before the election.
I know a number of circumstances are different, but those items are eerily similar.
This is generally true but not to the same degree. Looking at Biden's extra 3% lead vs Clinton with this many days left and if you assume it translates into extra votes across all states then he should be able to easily beat trump. People forget just how close Trump was to losing it all, and that was with his tv popularity, being considered an "outsider", with the guise of successful businessman, Putin's help and Comey $hitting the bed with the emails. After a catastrophic 4 years and no attempt to shift to the middle, no way his slice of the pie grows. It's all up to Dems, and hoping no outright trump criminality with the voting system of course.
Here we go... these are your kind biff
Uncle Joe looks to be just another D.C. scumbag:
Ghost, I've been reading/following you on Lets Run for years and really respected you for all your running history and wisdom. But when it comes to this pro-Trump garbage and outright lies about Biden, I have lost that respect for you. It hurts me to say that.
I don't like the wacko-left either. But I know right from wrong. Trump and his lies and you=all wrong.
I still hope for the best with your health issues.
highhoppingworm wrote:
I’m actually interested in seeing a real wager here. Would someone actually put their money where their mouth is? At 91% certainty surely you would be willing to place a substantial wager at even money.
I have $575 bet on various markets on PredictIt.
Mostly following Nate's model.
Crickets on putting $ where your mouth is beyond CircusClowns. I take this to mean that nobody in the Trump camp is willing to put 1k down even money on a Trump electoral college victory. Ghost, you get a pass because you are hands down the worst financial mind in the universe and likely can't foot the bill.
"What we found were a number of photographs that troubled us greatly. They troubled us greatly because there were photographs of underage girls. The underage girls were dressed in a very provocative way... very little bikinis, and poses, that were sexually provocative.
That was troubling in and of itself, but then there was one that was straight out-and-out child pornography. Just straight - I mean, as [Justice] Potter Stewart once described pornography as 'you can't define it, but you know it when you see it.'
Well, you know this when you see it.
We also knew what our obligations were because Bernie [Kerik, a senior VP at Giuliani Partners and former interim Interior Minister of Iraq after Operation Iraqi Freedom] had been a policeman, and I had been an assistant US Attorney and a Mayor. As a public official, had I seen that, I'd have to report it. I'd be a mandatory reporter as are medical people. When you see child pornography, or you see evidence that we also saw in the text messages and emails of an unsafe environment for the children.
Considerably unsafe environment for the children. Again, I will not go into detail as to why. That's for the Delaware police.
Now, you would say 'well this was already with the FBI,' but I have no indication, no evidence that the FBI has ever done anything with this. Or anything with the very serious and obvious overwhelming evidence of numerous crimes having been committed by Joe Biden, which they seem to be ignoring, which no prosecutor in the world could possibly ignore. So I was afraid they ignored the young girl, or young girls."
—Rudy Guiliani
270 to win - no toss-up shows who is leading each state based on the polls.
Two weeks ago I showed a map that had Biden with 375 electoral votes.
Last week he had 357 electoral votes.
Right now they have him with 334 electoral votes with Biden winning NC, FL and PA.
Lose them and Biden would lead 270-268.
If that's the final tally either way, it's civil war.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-no-tossups
I still have hope that Biden wins Ohio and Georgia and expands his lead in the other states.
I don't know how much this polling takes into account early voting.
In the end, it's about who shows up- and a lot of Biden voters have already shown up.
Is this the same Rudy Guiliani that touches himself 9-11 times in the new "Borat" movie falling for a very obvious honeypot trap?
Is this latest Biden family "scandal" being reported only in the New York Post - a Murdoch owned publication known for its conservative bent and sensationalist reporting? The same computer repair story that was very thoroughly debunked last week? This smells just like the "But, her e-mails!" ruse from 2016. Lots of smoke, no fire and nothing prosecutable. Rudy is always promising some evidence of misdeeds involving Hunter Biden and his dealings with Ukraine/Burisma, now his hard drive and his laptops, but nothing ever materializes. Distractions and nothing more. Trumpworld is always looking into things very strongly but never finding anything.
Put up or shut up.
L L wrote:
270 to win - no toss-up shows who is leading each state based on the polls.
Two weeks ago I showed a map that had Biden with 375 electoral votes.
Last week he had 357 electoral votes.
Right now they have him with 334 electoral votes with Biden winning NC, FL and PA.
Lose them and Biden would lead 270-268.
If that's the final tally either way, it's civil war.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-no-tossupsI still have hope that Biden wins Ohio and Georgia and expands his lead in the other states.
I don't know how much this polling takes into account early voting.
In the end, it's about who shows up- and a lot of Biden voters have already shown up.
RCP has its no-tossup map at 357-181
FL, GA, NC, AZ to Joe.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
......
—Rudy Guiliani
This is why nobody cares...