Here is my 13 Keys summary as of today:
1. Party mandate: The incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. We are in recovery. TRUE
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. If governors continue to keep businesses locked down in the foreseeable future, then it will harm long term. If so, then FALSE
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Antifa/BLM still going. FALSE
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. If the election was last year, then it would be a "FALSE". However, it is not NOW. So, it is a TRUE
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. TRUE
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Trump draws yuuge crowds at every campaign stop, has a more energized base, has the enthusiasm advantage or his opponent. TRUE
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Biden cannot draw large crowds at any rally or campaign visit (the Covid excuse is lame, Cankles did just as poorly. TRUE
Conclusion:
Trump has 10 out of 13 as TRUE
Trump wins the 13 Keys!
KAG2020