*ahem* wrote:
Daily check of The Gap: currently back at 11.4 percentage points, up from 11.2 yesterday.
And now DOWN to 10.6. That's a big drop in a day![/quote]
A new Rasmussen poll was released.
*ahem* wrote:
Daily check of The Gap: currently back at 11.4 percentage points, up from 11.2 yesterday.
And now DOWN to 10.6. That's a big drop in a day![/quote]
A new Rasmussen poll was released.
Flagpole wrote:
Portland Hobby Jogger wrote:
Low energy. Sad. Wasn't this the same guy that questioned Hillary's stamina and physical toughness? BTW...it was roughly 50 degrees in Erie, PA at the time of the rally. Looks like the dexamethasone isn't working any longer.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1318720413459939329This is an example of why I don't buy that he's a great salesman. A great salesman would never have disrespected his customers like that. He just basically told them that he couldn't have given two sh!ts about them except that he now needs something from them. You can tell that they weren't too happy about that. Trump wants others to love him, but he doesn't want to reciprocate. He is such a flawed human being.
agreed, trump did a poor sales job here.
something is bugging him severely.
what could it be?
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
*ahem* wrote:
But you *did* say Trump would have a landslide victory. I don't think anyone would characterize Obama's wins as landslides--certainly not his second--so how can President Trump win in a "landslide" if he doesn't even match Obama's numbers?
I've said repeatedly that Trump *does* have a chance to win. A win is the most that you should be calling for, not a landslide. And a win would be more than sufficient.
I actually called it #Trumplandslide. If he gets 60% or more of the EV or 323+ that would be enough.
#Trumplandslide
"Four more years!"
KAG2020
So, you initially called for a Trump landslide, meaning 323 or more votes according to you, but you now predict 313 for Trump. So, what you are saying is that you have backtracked on the landslide nonsense. Got it.
Portland Hobby Jogger wrote:
Low energy. Sad. Wasn't this the same guy that questioned Hillary's stamina and physical toughness? BTW...it was roughly 50 degrees in Erie, PA at the time of the rally. Looks like the dexamethasone isn't working any longer.
The COVID is doing its work on him. The pep drug can only work for so long. The longer someone takes them the more they need to get the same effect. Trump is deterioration on live camera.
How would Trump have a copy of the tape? He is bluffing.
Trollminator wrote:
The bellyaching continues... it's not called 45 minutes. Sure Mark, you'll release the tape and it will shock the world, lol.. the most credible people in the world.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1318916534287433729?s=20
Trollminator wrote:
The bellyaching continues... it's not called 45 minutes. Sure Mark, you'll release the tape and it will shock the world, lol.. the most credible people in the world.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1318916534287433729?s=20
What are the chances he loses it and walks out of the debate?
agip wrote:
Just Wundrin wrote:
So, markets have historically risen immediately following presidential elections? Seems counterintuitive and contrary to basic notions of efficient markets.
history doesn't repeat exactly.
this is a much more binary election than usual. Trumpism vs Normal and Predictable.
Add in trump's wishes to arrest biden and his refusal to accept results, and it gets weird.
Most elections we know who will win, and most elections the candidates aren't all that different from each other. So markets have less uncertainty.
I'm gonna go with the more obviously correct analysis, already provided by LL - the article was vacuous bullsh!t.
agip wrote:
um...538 just put the GA senator race (the Loeffler seat) in the blue column.
GA has the same demographic issue as TX and FL. They continue offering sweet deal to companies to relocate to their states. Most of those companies are from urban areas which tend to vote blue. Many of their employees move with them. The trend is those states turning blue and staying blue once there. The only way to stop that is to stop pilfering companies from Urban areas. That won't happen because those states want businesses form growth and there is nothing local to grow from.
At a minimum, this is colossal incompetence. What do the "save the children" QAnon people have to say about this? Is what amounts to kidnapping children now OK with Trump people?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/politics/children-separation-border/index.html
johnny99 wrote:
At a minimum, this is colossal incompetence. What do the "save the children" QAnon people have to say about this? Is what amounts to kidnapping children now OK with Trump people?
They don’t care.
agip wrote:
um...538 just put the GA senator race (the Loeffler seat) in the blue column.
This one's weird. it is a primary, with the general held in January. Unless someone gets 50%.
Nobody is getting 50%. That's a pipe dream.
It's kind of shocking that Warnock, the Democrat, went from a 48% chance Monday to a 53% chance today.
But I have reason to believe that 538's model might not be very good at predicting this kind of election. I'm guessing that there just isn't enough data to create a good model.
So it looks like we will see a runoff between Warnock, who will come in first and whichever Republican finishes second. This happens all the time in Georgia and the Republican almost always wins.
Democrats just don't show up in runoffs. The only way Warnock wins the runoff is if control of the senate hangs in the balance. Then the race gets so much attention that Democrats decide it's worthwhile to vote.
Flagpole wrote:
This is an example of why I don't buy that he's a great salesman. A great salesman would never have disrespected his customers like that. He just basically told them that he couldn't have given two sh!ts about them except that he now needs something from them. You can tell that they weren't too happy about that. Trump wants others to love him, but he doesn't want to reciprocate. He is such a flawed human being.
He definitely screwed up big time. Last night might have put Pennsylvania out of reach.
I can already hear Biden in the debate tomorrow, "Donald Trump said he didn't want to be in Pennsylvania. I guess he doesn't like Pennsylvania. Well I love my native home state. I always love to come home. And I want Pennsylvanians to know that when I'm president ...."
titanic landslide wrote:
How would Trump have a copy of the tape? He is bluffing.
They could have shot their own tape. No way for us to know at the moment.
But I don't know why it's such a threat. It's like saying, if you don't do what I want I'll make you a sandwich.
Fat hurts wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
This is an example of why I don't buy that he's a great salesman. A great salesman would never have disrespected his customers like that. He just basically told them that he couldn't have given two sh!ts about them except that he now needs something from them. You can tell that they weren't too happy about that. Trump wants others to love him, but he doesn't want to reciprocate. He is such a flawed human being.
He definitely screwed up big time. Last night might have put Pennsylvania out of reach.
I can already hear Biden in the debate tomorrow, "Donald Trump said he didn't want to be in Pennsylvania. I guess he doesn't like Pennsylvania. Well I love my native home state. I always love to come home. And I want Pennsylvanians to know that when I'm president ...."
I'll guess that Trump's thought process was that he'd say something like "I don't feel like being here but I came to see my people anyway" and that would be a good thing. It actually me be with some of his numbskull followers.
Fat hurts wrote:
titanic landslide wrote:
How would Trump have a copy of the tape? He is bluffing.
They could have shot their own tape. No way for us to know at the moment.
But I don't know why it's such a threat. It's like saying, if you don't do what I want I'll make you a sandwich.
This will be a non-story by this afternoon as he'll move on to the next clusterfuts.
Maybe it arises again on Sunday when the episode is shown but I'm sure the WH would rather avoid the subject. At first the WH was claiming he didn't walk out even though Trump himself said he did.
johnny99 wrote:
At a minimum, this is colossal incompetence. What do the "save the children" QAnon people have to say about this? Is what amounts to kidnapping children now OK with Trump people?
QAnons are crazy people. They don't think in rational terms. It's kind of like expecting a reasonable response from Sally. Just ignore and move on.
Fat hurts wrote:
johnny99 wrote:
At a minimum, this is colossal incompetence. What do the "save the children" QAnon people have to say about this? Is what amounts to kidnapping children now OK with Trump people?
QAnons are crazy people. They don't think in rational terms. It's kind of like expecting a reasonable response from Sally. Just ignore and move on.
Ignore them to a degree, but the FBI has declared QAnon a domestic terrorist threat, so we can't keep our eyes off it/them entirely.
Flagpole wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
QAnons are crazy people. They don't think in rational terms. It's kind of like expecting a reasonable response from Sally. Just ignore and move on.
Ignore them to a degree, but the FBI has declared QAnon a domestic terrorist threat, so we can't keep our eyes off it/them entirely.
Oh yes indeed. I just meant ignore in terms of expecting rationality.
As crazy people, there is always the chance that they could be dangerous. That pretty much applies to all Trumpers. When someone lives in a fantasy world you never know what they might be capable of.
the beagle wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Here is my worst case scenario map for Trump.
https://www.270towin.com/Your "worst case scenario map for Trump" has Biden getting 290 with another 85 tossup available, a landslide victory for Biden. Yeah, that would be a pretty bad scenario for Trump.
Wrong map. I updated it and reposted it yesterday. Try to keep up.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/xmNx7Trump-270
Biden-268