johnny99 wrote:
agip wrote:
I 'm too ,lazy to look it up, but I think WI was one of the states that showed a comfy win for HRC, close to this lead. That's what gives people like Rigged hope.
I looked it up and you're right. RCP had Hillary up by 6.5 in WI on 11/7/16.
The difference is that in 2016, the trend was favoring Trump. Hillary had been up by 11.5 in late August, so Trump was closing on her even if he was still behind in early November. Here, except for a brief blip for a few days in late August, Biden has been up by around 6 points for months.
also different: In 2016 pollsters didn't understand the education divide - they thought all white men were the same, roughly. Now pollsters adjust for education since that has become such a massive divide. The result should be more accurate polls in places like WI and PA.