Obama to reign in Wall Street brokers with fiduciary rule:
Obama to reign in Wall Street brokers with fiduciary rule:
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Obama to reign in Wall Street brokers with fiduciary rule:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-fiduciary-rule-on-financial-advisers-to-be-unveiledapril-6-1459460156
it's good for the people, but will make it harder for me to market. I tell all my prospects that I am a fiduciary...if we are all fiduciaries I won't stand out as much.
But on the other hand, I work with mass affluent, not high net worth, and few advisors will work under a fidiciary standard with clients who have $100k accoutns and the like. But I will. so this all nets out.
good for the people.
[quote]Maserati wrote:
I really wish that possibly mythical 50% drop would come soon, though.
Mythical? Were you not alive in 2008-09?
Maserati wrote:
Oh, BTW even if you believe the # of jobs, that number was led by...
...retail.
I haven't fact checked that, but ok.
here's a good fact: According to a tweet from steve liesman, all net job adds since 2010 have been full time jobs.
This 'part time jobs' meme is apparenlty not true.
https://twitter.com/steveliesmanJob-seekers return at fastest pace since before recession
Automakers report best US March sales in 16 years
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/940171/automakers-report-best-us-march-sales-in-16-years
Goin up?
Percent of SP500 stocks above 200 day moving average. Clearly something is different here that hasn't been seen since the 2012 bottom:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=%24SPXA200R,uu
[h,a]waclyyay[pb40!f][vc60][iue6,12,9!lj[$spx]]
McClellan Summation Index (ratio-adjusted), once again showing breadth strength not seen since before 2014:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=
$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120
And this is why, after a 250+ point S&P rally, the big money is still mostly long (different from October-November).
I'm about long in about 40% of my investable assets. A little real estate but not much. However, can someone more advanced in economics tell me how get back to "Normal" interest rates and how we deal with this?
Define "normal interest rates".
Jambo wrote:
Define "normal interest rates".
What interest rates typically were for multiple decades before the FED began drastically lowering them in the early 1990s.
Those of us who have been around for a while remember savings accounts paying 5% since we were kids and well into our adulthood.
Donald Trump said in an interview that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession†and that “it’s a terrible time right now†to invest in the stock market, embracing a distinctly gloomy view of the economy that counters mainstream economic forecasts.
The New York billionaire dismissed concern that his comments — which are exceedingly unusual, if not unprecedented, for a major party front-runner — could potentially affect financial markets.
Shorting the Dow
You are confused wrote:
Jambo wrote:Define "normal interest rates".
What interest rates typically were for multiple decades before the FED began drastically lowering them in the early 1990s.
Those of us who have been around for a while remember savings accounts paying 5% since we were kids and well into our adulthood.
You probably also remember inflation norms of 4%. Now inflation is 1-2%.
I believe rates now are fairly similar to historical norms, compared to inflation. But I'd have to check that.
Agip wrote:
You are confused wrote:What interest rates typically were for multiple decades before the FED began drastically lowering them in the early 1990s.
Those of us who have been around for a while remember savings accounts paying 5% since we were kids and well into our adulthood.
You probably also remember inflation norms of 4%. Now inflation is 1-2%.
I believe rates now are fairly similar to historical norms, compared to inflation. But I'd have to check that.
Not true. There has been an inversion. Money markets, as an example, typically paid interest equal to inflation plus one to two points. Now, they pay inflation minus one to two points.
Look into the data
The troika of dollar, oil and the Federal Reserve will continue to hold sway over the stock market in a comparatively quiet week for corporate earnings and economic data, according to analysts.
"The dollar will be very much a part of market conversation and, given the stronger economic data this week, we will watch to see what happens with the dollar," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.
The U.S. Dollar Index , a gauge of the greenback's strength against a basket of rival currencies, fell 1.6% this week after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated the need to take a cautious approach to raising interest rates. A tighter monetary policy boosts the currency on a confidence in the economy and as investors chase yields.
Oil prices will also be under close scrutiny given the tight correlation between oil and the stock market. Stocks have closely shadowed oil recently with correlation between the two assets hitting a multi-year high of 0.6 earlier this week.
The Fed will remain in the spotlight with the Fed minutes from the March meeting due for release on Wednesday. "The market will try to pick up any color it can from the transcript," Krosby said. The Fed had unexpectedly dialed back its hawkish stance in early March by signaling two more interest rate hikes this year rather than the four it had previously projected.
"Earnings are down over 15% from year ago levels and although much of that can be attributed to the energy sector, earnings have been down on a year-on-year basis beginning at the end of second quarter 2014," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management.
Lackluster earnings aside, the market is well-positioned for further gains in the near-term, according to Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, who had earlier predicted strong gains in March. "I do think we remain in a secular bull market and that we have seen a 15.2% pullback from the May 2015 intraday high, so I do not expect any meaningful pullback from here," Saut said in a report.
Not true. There has been an inversion. Money markets, as an example, typically paid interest equal to inflation plus one to two points. Now, they pay inflation minus one to two points.
The latest inflation number is 1.0%. Savings accounts are paying around the same. It's currently a wash.
Crunchy wrote:
Not true. There has been an inversion. Money markets, as an example, typically paid interest equal to inflation plus one to two points. Now, they pay inflation minus one to two points.The latest inflation number is 1.0%. Savings accounts are paying around the same. It's currently a wash.
1. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, will rise by about 2.4% in 2016, slightly above the 2.1% posted in 2015.
Read more at
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-inflation-rate-forecast.html#pWsWzgpCtATtPvSh.992. Most online banks currently offer interest rates ranging from 0.75% to 0.95%.
I'm talking about real inflation, not someone's prediction. And it's not difficult to find a bank offering around 1%, or higher.
Jumbo Kid wrote:
Agip wrote:You probably also remember inflation norms of 4%. Now inflation is 1-2%.
I believe rates now are fairly similar to historical norms, compared to inflation. But I'd have to check that.
Not true. There has been an inversion. Money markets, as an example, typically paid interest equal to inflation plus one to two points. Now, they pay inflation minus one to two points.
Look into the data
the Consumer price index is up 1.0% year over year. That's your inflation rate.
you can get 0.9% interest from an online bank
I suspect that almost breaking even rate is pretty similar to history, but I'm guessing a little.
True that money market rates are below inflation. That is a change. I'm not sure why that is. But you can still get virtually the inflation rate from a bank savings account without much effort.
Released On 4/14/2016 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2016
Prior
CPI - M/M change -0.2 %
CPI - Y/Y change 1.0 %
Jumbo Kid wrote:
Agip wrote:You probably also remember inflation norms of 4%. Now inflation is 1-2%.
I believe rates now are fairly similar to historical norms, compared to inflation. But I'd have to check that.
Not true. There has been an inversion. Money markets, as an example, typically paid interest equal to inflation plus one to two points. Now, they pay inflation minus one to two points.
Look into the data
actually I just checked bankrate.com - there are many banks now offering 1.1% on savings accounts. even 1.11%.
So the savings account market has changed, but you can still get probably similar yields as historically.
Crunchy wrote:
I'm talking about real inflation, not someone's prediction. And it's not difficult to find a bank offering around 1%, or higher.
Inflation was 2.1% in 2015. That is not a prediction but a statistic...even if it does not support your opinion.
Crunchy wrote:
I'm talking about real inflation, not someone's prediction. And it's not difficult to find a bank offering around 1%, or higher.
Inflation was 2.1% in 2015. That is not a prediction but a statistic...even if it does not support your opinion.