Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

left now wrote:

Monkeys typing wrote:

Nitpicking, but 538 has the map Rigged showed (413 electoral votes for Biden) or better at around 20% chance.

Actual not "the" map. That is out of context. 538 has that map as a "group" of maps, one of which Rigged chose to cherry picked to claim 538 was out to lunch.

CORRECT! Except, I submit Rigged just saw that listed and didn't even cherry pick it. He just thought that was Silver's prediction. What the map he found DID do is it fed his Confirmation Bias which was why he was so quick to present it, because he thought 413 is nuts (and it is and won't happen). It just wasn't what Rigged thought it was. Par for the course with him.

real American politics wrote:

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1317942143026139136?s=20

Entirely plausible.

Not likely IMO, but indisputably a possible scenario.

agip wrote:

left now wrote:

How is going from prior mayor to press secretary a demotion? He is currently teaching at Notre Dame and runs a PAC. The WH press secretary is sorely in need of rehabilitation. The clowns Trump in the position have destroyed the credibility of the office. Pete is a pretty good fix it guy. He would be a good choice to fix that office for a year or so, and move into something else. The guy is not even 40 years old yet. He has a lot of upside and should get a position where he is in the public eye getting positive messages out which are true; not the Trump liefest that parrots Trump himself.

I can see both sides here.

You shouldn't. He wouldn't be offered the job nor would he take it. It was a ridiculous suggestion.

Flagpole wrote:

left now wrote:

Actual not "the" map. That is out of context. 538 has that map as a "group" of maps, one of which Rigged chose to cherry picked to claim 538 was out to lunch.

CORRECT! Except, I submit Rigged just saw that listed and didn't even cherry pick it. He just thought that was Silver's prediction. What the map he found DID do is it fed his Confirmation Bias which was why he was so quick to present it, because he thought 413 is nuts (and it is and won't happen). It just wasn't what Rigged thought it was. Par for the course with him.

Actually, according to the 21:11:03 18 Oct run of the 538 model, exactly 413 electoral votes for Biden had a probability of 3.3825% which was the single highest probability discrete value outcome of the ensemble. It's kind of counter intuitive which was the actual point of Nate Silver's tweet. Of course that means there's close to a 97% chance that something else will happen.

TTH wrote:

agip wrote:

I can see both sides here.

You shouldn't. He wouldn't be offered the job nor would he take it. It was a ridiculous suggestion.

I'd expect Mayor Pete will run for a national office in 2022 (Senate if available else HR). He'll probably be offered a cabinet position in a presumed Biden administration in the interim.

Monkeys typing wrote:

Actually, according to the 21:11:03 18 Oct run of the 538 model, exactly 413 electoral votes for Biden had a probability of 3.3825% which was the single highest probability discrete value outcome of the ensemble. It's kind of counter intuitive which was the actual point of Nate Silver's tweet. Of course that means there's close to a 97% chance that something else will happen.

He says it in the tweet: there is a cluster of outcomes far to the right where the maps look like that. There is no special significance, it's a illustration of the results in that region.

NameStolenAgain wrote:

Monkeys typing wrote:

Actually, according to the 21:11:03 18 Oct run of the 538 model, exactly 413 electoral votes for Biden had a probability of 3.3825% which was the single highest probability discrete value outcome of the ensemble. It's kind of counter intuitive which was the actual point of Nate Silver's tweet. Of course that means there's close to a 97% chance that something else will happen.

He says it in the tweet: there is a cluster of outcomes far to the right where the maps look like that. There is no special significance, it's a illustration of the results in that region.

I don't know about "special significance" but there is an interpretation, which is, if Biden wins Texas then he's probably won all the "leans blue" and "toss up" states with narrower margins.

Just Another Hobby Jogger wrote:

TTH wrote:

The dedication to a story gaining no traction whatsoever anywhere but in the source of the story...NYPOST....and maybe FoxNews....I don't watch it but I imagine this is a major theme of theirs right now...is commendable.

You forgot about OAN.

https://www.oann.com/rick-gates-calls-for-mueller-probe-into-joe-biden/

Did you mean this Rick Gaetz?

^ imagined reality

Nothing you state has any quantifiable weight behind it, not even #1 because it’s not a leading indicator historically and you can’t prove these folks will even vote for trump, if they show up at all. You are empty handed pal.

left now wrote:

Just Another Hobby Jogger wrote:

Run in 2024 from where? NY State prison, or Trump Tower Istanbul?

Those is possible. More likely are a yet a to-be-built project in either the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia or Israel.

If he is in a prisoner he could still run, but he could not run if the next Congress impeaches him. Running as a prisoner if nearly impossible because of fund raising and "rallies". But Trump has his kids and rich pals to manage that annoyance for him. .... But, reality says Trump will not be "alive" in 2024. "Alive" meaning either living, or mentally capable (dementia and Alzheimer's), or physically capable (too many "mini" strokes).

Like I’ve said before, not country hoping to maintain any positive relationship with the US is going to take on this political liability, they got nothing but trouble in return. There are many non-US friendly options for him though. It would most likely be Russia. Putin would throw him a few bones, make him feel special, and would go down in history as the GOAT dictator who took a POTUS’ scalp.

TTH wrote:

left now wrote:

Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.

My thought has been that if Trump were to lose, particularly in a close race and all of the nonsense that will bring, that Trump will immediately begin campaigning for 2024 and we'll never get out of this cycle. The only chance this doesn't happen is if the GOP essentially abandons him politically and I don't think enough of the political leaders will do so to accomplish this.

He’d just try to create his own party.

agip wrote:

How about Mayor Pete for Press Secretary? Dude has been killing it on Fox, putting together great thoughts and ideas in an appealing manner.

Is that too much of a demotion?

Just seems that comms is his great talent.

Too much of a demotion. As good as he is with words, it’s his judgement that is really valuable to the public. They should appoint Chris Cuomo to that post just to melt down the whole right. Trumpers would probably attempt something really dangerous within days.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Every moderator this season has been a left leaning partisan.

Wah wah wah everyone is so mean to daddy trump!!! ???

Monkeys typing wrote:

TTH wrote:

You shouldn't. He wouldn't be offered the job nor would he take it. It was a ridiculous suggestion.

I'd expect Mayor Pete will run for a national office in 2022 (Senate if available else HR). He'll probably be offered a cabinet position in a presumed Biden administration in the interim.

Assuming his aspirations for the WH continue, he must be careful not to become like Susan Rice. A cabinet post would help him, but yeah he’ll need to relocate and run for Senate. I can see him being a good governor too but as a Senator he would really shine.

Monkeys typing wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

CORRECT! Except, I submit Rigged just saw that listed and didn't even cherry pick it. He just thought that was Silver's prediction. What the map he found DID do is it fed his Confirmation Bias which was why he was so quick to present it, because he thought 413 is nuts (and it is and won't happen). It just wasn't what Rigged thought it was. Par for the course with him.

Actually, according to the 21:11:03 18 Oct run of the 538 model, exactly 413 electoral votes for Biden had a probability of 3.3825% which was the single highest probability discrete value outcome of the ensemble. It's kind of counter intuitive which was the actual point of Nate Silver's tweet. Of course that means there's close to a 97% chance that something else will happen.

Yeah, I know what that map showed. 538 has several different scenarios, and only ONE of them is how they currently see things. The 413 map was NOT that. Rigged did NOT understand that. He got it wrong, as usual.

Trollminator wrote:

agip wrote:

How about Mayor Pete for Press Secretary? Dude has been killing it on Fox, putting together great thoughts and ideas in an appealing manner.

Is that too much of a demotion?

Just seems that comms is his great talent.

Too much of a demotion. As good as he is with words, it’s his judgement that is really valuable to the public. They should appoint Chris Cuomo to that post just to melt down the whole right. Trumpers would probably attempt something really dangerous within days.

Cuomo makes $6 million a year. I can't imagine he would want that job.

Better win the election before you start picking the press secretary.

it's funny that soon, most likely, there will be a new inauguration of the president, and this topic is still alive since the first