NameStolenAgain wrote:
Yeah, I told him above he's just posting random images from who knows where. That has never been a predicted map, that's probably a 3-10% likelihood
The "random image" is from Nate's own twitter page.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
The Runningart Challenge is the only bet that matters.
Nate Silver's current map:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EklK9MqU0AAKOzt?format=jpg&name=smallIA, FL, NC, GA, OH, TX blue??? 100% certified ?.
https://imgflip.com/s/meme/Good-Fellas-Hilarious.jpgEnjoy your loss.
KAG2020
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
Care to try again, Facts hurt?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Trump will never win an election at any level again. We will see a pathetic attention-seeking Trump after the election slowly get worse and worse ratings at whatever it is he decides to do. We will see how his legal troubles interfere with his post-President days.
there will be some interesting conversations if Trump loses in 2020 and runs in 2024. Esp if the senate turns blue.
R leadership knows Trump runs the party singlehandedly, but Rs also know Trump ran the party into a ditch - losing the House, Senate and WH. (if that happens).
Elected Rs probably won't have the backbone to push back against m@ga nation.
I'm sure trump would win the nomination again if he runs in 2024.
Unless he is in jail or self-exile. Maybe that would cost him the nomination.
I don't see him winning the nomination in 2024. We will know so much more about him by then than we do now even. We are going to find out he's not a billionaire and that besides that he is in big financial trouble. He will have legal issues hounding him. Why would the GOP want to elect someone who can only serve one term? We might even have some checks and balances in place by then that would prohibit a man with $400-$1 billion dollars in debt from becoming President. He will not have unfettered support from elected Republicans, and his rabid vote support will be gone. He doesn't like being President anyway. It benefits him now to try to win again to stay out of legal trouble. The GOP, or what's left of it, will do all it can to distance itself from Trump. He will not be nominated and will never win another election for political office.
left now wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
It is a make your own map from 270towin dot com. It has nothing to do with Nate Silver's 538 site.
270towin makes predictions same as 538. 270towin allows users to make their own electoral map.
Man, you libs just can't admit when you're wrong. This map is from the poll reading ? himself, Nate Silver.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I don't know where you got that, but it's not Nate Silver's map. Not even close.
Care to try again, Facts hurt?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665
How is it possible that you are this stupid? I'm not even going to spend the time to try to educate you on this, because you are a lost cause. Wow! I mean WOW are you dumb. Just WOW!
zephito wrote:
agip wrote:
there will be some interesting conversations if Trump loses in 2020 and runs in 2024. Esp if the senate turns blue.
R leadership knows Trump runs the party singlehandedly, but Rs also know Trump ran the party into a ditch - losing the House, Senate and WH. (if that happens).
Elected Rs probably won't have the backbone to push back against m@ga nation.
I'm sure trump would win the nomination again if he runs in 2024.
Unless he is in jail or self-exile. Maybe that would cost him the nomination.
I don't think he'll run again. I do think he'll control the party for at least another cycle, but it will be more as a kingmaker-type. I don't think he ever really wanted to be president in the sense of actually doing the job. I think he ran to get publicity and was as surprised as everyone else at how effective he was. I do think by the end of the 2016 campaign he wanted to win for the sake of winning but I think he'd be much happier golfing all the time and holding rallies without having to actually do the job or be responsible for anything. He has absolutely no convictions about any public policy (except maybe for protectionism) so he has no policy goals he would want accomplished. I often wonder if there's some alternate universe where he ran as the dem nominee and how successful that would have been. I like to think that dem voters wouldn't have given him the time of day but who knows?
Also, per my previous post, he can still win. The RCP battleground states are actually slightly in his favor vis a vis last election (still behind but closer than last time). The polling firms seem to have made corrections to account for that and it's hugely unlikely that this cycle will follow the same format as last time for a whole host of reasons we're all aware of but I feel the 10% chance is still there. Looking at the polls from all the states show Biden rolling up gigantic margins in CA, NY, MA and the like (more than HRC last time), the extra votes all being worthless. In addition, say he loses TX by 50-48, which seems quite possible. That's 7 points and hundreds of thousands of votes better than HRC, all for nothing. The EC is even more biased towards the GOP this time and I could see Biden winning by 5 or 6 points in the popular vote and still losing the EC (though still unlikely and I can't see any path for Trump if Biden wins by 9 or 10 as the polls show now).
Side history note: Lincoln ran against 3 other guys in 1860 and won the EC with 39% of the vote. What some don't know is that had Douglass, Bell and Breckenridge combined into a single candidate (so no vote dividing going on), Lincoln still would have won the EC, while losing the popular vote by 20 points. So winning the popular vote by 6 points and still losing the election really isn't unprecedented.
When trump gets 60 million votes, he’s doesn’t think that’s at least 60 million Americans he has a responsibility toward. He thinks that’s 60 million suckers that would buy his steaks, water, apparel, and classes. After he loses, he’s going to continue pushing crazy to keep the mouth breathers hooked while he tries to take another buck from them. Many, especially the poorest, will happily shower him with money... not donors of course.
TTH wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Meanwhile, trouble for the Bidens before and after the election:
https://nypost.com/2020/10/17/what-did-joe-biden-know-about-hunters-crook-emails-goodwin/The dedication to a story gaining no traction whatsoever anywhere but in the source of the story...NYPOST....and maybe FoxNews....I don't watch it but I imagine this is a major theme of theirs right now...is commendable.
You forgot about OAN.
https://www.oann.com/rick-gates-calls-for-mueller-probe-into-joe-biden/left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852433/Steve-Bannon-says-President-Trump-run-2024-loses-upcoming-election.html
Run in 2024 from where? NY State prison, or Trump Tower Istanbul?
Fat hurts wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
And apparently whats he's "putting on the line" is having to change his handle, register under a new name, and never have to face embarrassment for all his claims
Yes, which is why the whole bet is so stupid and meaningless. He bound to change his handle after the election either way. "Rigged for Hillary" is so 2016.
As I said before, I am more confidant of a Trump victory than I was in 2016.
1. Voter registration trends in the battlegrounds favor Trump.
2. Trump's ground game: field offices, staff, volunteers have been in place for over a year. Biden put very little resources into field offices then beefed them up in the summer of this year, too little/too late. Advantage Trump.
3. Enthusiasm gap favors Trump, BIGLY: rallies (multiple states in a single day), parades, big crowds.
4. Primary vote turnout- historically high for Trump & proven election day predictor, per Norpoth.
5. Norpoth, Rich Baris (Peoples Pundit), Trafalgar & Barnes Law- will will beat Nate Silver with their POTUS predictions.
MN & NH will flip to red.
FL, NC, OH, GA, TX, AZ will stay red.
PA will stay red.
Trump will win 313 EV, minimum.
Nate Silver will be wrong AGAIN & perhaps lose his job.
I will win the Runningart Challenge.
Alan and Sourpole leave LR forever.
?pole will have cursed another presidential election.
I will keep the RFH handle until Crooked Rotten Cankles dies.
Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
left now wrote:
It is a make your own map from 270towin dot com. It has nothing to do with Nate Silver's 538 site.
270towin makes predictions same as 538. 270towin allows users to make their own electoral map.
Man, you libs just can't admit when you're wrong. This map is from the poll reading ? himself, Nate Silver.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
As a fellow Trump supporter, I feel for you. It's extremely frustrating to not understand basic mathematics :(
Rigged, do you sometimes feel frustrated when 2nd graders can calculate change faster than you at the register? Do you have trouble understanding when your doctor tells you that you have a 50% chance of contracting an STD from sexual contact with Trump?
Maybe an adult math class could help you out :/
"It's the economy, stupid!"
And something you learn, the first week in business school: The markets are *not* the economy.
Just Another Hobby Jogger wrote:
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852433/Steve-Bannon-says-President-Trump-run-2024-loses-upcoming-election.htmlRun in 2024 from where? NY State prison, or Trump Tower Istanbul?
Those is possible. More likely are a yet a to-be-built project in either the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia or Israel.
If he is in a prisoner he could still run, but he could not run if the next Congress impeaches him. Running as a prisoner if nearly impossible because of fund raising and "rallies". But Trump has his kids and rich pals to manage that annoyance for him. .... But, reality says Trump will not be "alive" in 2024. "Alive" meaning either living, or mentally capable (dementia and Alzheimer's), or physically capable (too many "mini" strokes).
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
More damming information:
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/does_this_explain_why_facebook_suppressed_hunter_biden_revelations.html
American Thinker rated as an “unreliable source” and “conspiracy” website.
I love that you’re getting your old hopes up with this stuff. Time well spent.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Yeah, I told him above he's just posting random images from who knows where. That has never been a predicted map, that's probably a 3-10% likelihood
The "random image" is from Nate's own twitter page.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665
Context you bleeping freaking idiot lol.
He is talking about what-ifs. He even says Trump is up in TX.
I don't know if you are trolling or if you really just have a 5th grade education
Alan
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
My thought has been that if Trump were to lose, particularly in a close race and all of the nonsense that will bring, that Trump will immediately begin campaigning for 2024 and we'll never get out of this cycle. The only chance this doesn't happen is if the GOP essentially abandons him politically and I don't think enough of the political leaders will do so to accomplish this.
Calamity Joe wrote:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/noem-hunter-biden-story-joe-biden-damage-credibility
Not sure how Joe Biden survives this.
Flagpole wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Care to try again, Facts hurt?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317165271975665665How is it possible that you are this stupid? I'm not even going to spend the time to try to educate you on this, because you are a lost cause. Wow! I mean WOW are you dumb. Just WOW!
He doesn't actually read what he posts. He is simple minded. He sees an image on Nate Silver's Twitter and assumes "This is Silver's". He doesn't read. He may even be illiterate or have a learning disability.
What those Lean-R/Toss-Up states tell you is that the future is bad for Trump and the GOP. TX has been shifting to the left over the last few cycles. The Bushes won TX by 20+. McCain and Romney by 13-15. Trump by 9. In the 2018 senate race Cruz won by 2.
This shift coincides with the GOPs push for stricter immigration policies.
I even been beating this dead horse for a while. The country is becoming less and less white. You can either do what's been done with the black community and make voting unpalatable for a segment of the population, or you can put forth policies to lure that segment to your cause.
Alan
TTH wrote:
left now wrote:
Trump is guaranteeing the permanent death of the Republican party. Steve Bannon claims if Trump loses in two weeks (he will lose) he will run again in 2024. RIP GOP.
My thought has been that if Trump were to lose, particularly in a close race and all of the nonsense that will bring, that Trump will immediately begin campaigning for 2024 and we'll never get out of this cycle. The only chance this doesn't happen is if the GOP essentially abandons him politically and I don't think enough of the political leaders will do so to accomplish this.
Trump's motive is not to win election. It never was. His motive has always been to dupe people into donating money to him. It is doubtful that the GOP will boat anchor itself to go down a second time with the Trump-tanic in 2024. Trump will simply run as his won party. As he did in 2016, expect him to start a reelection campaign as soon as the day after he loses in two weeks.
