Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Gina: Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

stanky legs wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/10/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_does_it_again_138621.html

I first mentioned Trafalgar about a month ago and you can keep relying on 538's nonsense until election night.

Enjoy your loss.

No. No. No. Flagpole and Agip have the REAL truth and facts. No way.

No. No. No. ALL sources have exactly the same level of credibility, ALL opinions are equally valid and ALL "facts" are just opinions.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Anyone who really thinks there's a 11.4 point gap in this race isn't fit to do political analysis. There's literally no way on earth that's a real lead. Ask Cankles about double digit leads late in the election year.

Read these words very carefully:

Trump is actually that f-cking bad.

He’s dancing on stage while over 200,000 Americans have died. He was ok the virus ravaging states that were never going to vote for him. He’s on record saying how dangerous this virus was in February and still now he claims it’s less dangerous than the common flu.

At the same time he’s at least half a billion in debt and has used his power to fleece the government.

He is the worst.

I think Biden will get there and there's a decent chance he'll roll up a huge win. However, we shouldn't count our chickens before they've hatched:

RCP battleground average polling margins now and as of this date in 2016:

PA: 2020 - Biden +5.6. 2016 - HRC +6.2. Result: Trump +0.7

FL: 2020 - Biden +1.4. 2016 - HRC +4.0. Result: Trump +1.2

WI: 2020 - Biden +6.3. 2016 - HRC +7.0. Result: Trump +0.7

MI: 2020 - Biden +7.2. 2016 - HRC +10.0. Result: Trump +0.3

NC: 2020 - Biden +2.7. 2016 - HRC +2.6. Result: Trump +3.7

AZ: 2020 - Biden +4.0. 2016 - HRC +1.3. Result: Trump +3.5

OH: 2020 - Trump +0.5. 2016 - Trump +0.6. Result: Trump +8.1

GA: 2020 - Biden +1.2. 2016 - Trump +4.6. Result: Trump +5.1

NH: 2020 - Biden +11.0. 2016 - HRC +8.0. Result: HRC +0.3

IA: 2020 - Biden +1.2. 2016 - Trump +3.7. Result: Trump +9.5

NV: 2020 - Biden +5.2. 2016 - HRC +3.7. Result: HRC +2.4

TX: 2020 - Trump +4.4. 2016 - Trump +5.4. Result: Trump +9.0

Last time it as Trump 306 / HRC 232 ( I'm ignoring the faithless electors on both sides). If the exact same shifts happen as last time, Trump would carry most of the battlegrounds (although GA would shift to Biden - Trump only gained 0.5 points in GA, less than Biden's current lead there), leaving it 290/248. Of course, that scenario is ridiculously unlikely but you could definitely argue that Trump is in a better position now than he was in 2016. Questions I have:

1. Have the polling firms made any adjustments for what happened in 2016? They might not have. After all, even though everyone says they got it wrong, they were generally within the margin of error. They might not have changed their workhorse models, considering the models basically got it right. I really don't know and haven't done any research.

2. The polls listed above are as of today's date. Everyone can recall the October/November Surprise email story about HRC. The polls tightened some after that. Would HRC have won had the election occurred in mid October last year?

3. It seems like a lot of undecideds shifted to Trump last time - "lets take a flyer on this businessman" approach. I don't know for certain but I seem to recall that - someone can correct me if it wasn't true. Could it shift the other way this time? Trump does not seem to be doing himself any favors right now (although the same could be said last time, too).

4. Referring to the three questions above, is there a bit of an overreaction on the "Trump can still win" by the media? If they have changed their models to adjust for Trump's "bonus factor" (whatever that might be) and nothing much changes in the polling up to election day, then Biden will cruise to victory. And what if they adjusted their models unnecessarily? What if most of the undecideds shift to Biden and the Trump Fudge Factor is non-existent? There could be a Ike vs. Stevenson style blowout.

5. Finally, how much is GOP ratf**king with regards to voting infringement going to affect things?

agip wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

And please point out for us, Agip, actual lies that Tucker has made, aside from the bogus Stormy Daniels stuff.

do you not understand that google is a thing?

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/tucker-carlson/

Agip - I never saw PoltiFact but before but just looking at the website, they are only "fact-checking" conservatives. Why are they not "fact-checking" liberals? You really think I am going to waste my time looking at such a highly partisan hack website as PoltiFact? How about you post some specific lies that Tucker has made and don't waste my time with PoltiFact. Okay?

Sally Vix wrote:

agip wrote:

do you not understand that google is a thing?

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/tucker-carlson/

Agip - I never saw PoltiFact but before but just looking at the website, they are only "fact-checking" conservatives. Why are they not "fact-checking" liberals? You really think I am going to waste my time looking at such a highly partisan hack website as PoltiFact? How about you post some specific lies that Tucker has made and don't waste my time with PoltiFact. Okay?

Of course you didn’t you’re blind.

Yes. Pollsters generally incorporate adjustments to match their sample set to the demographic and most break out white-non-college as a sub-demographic. It remains to be seen how well this works out, but pollsters reputations mostly depend upon getting the right answer.

Their was a lot of post 2016 election analysis and opinioning on how significant this was. The consensus seemed to be that it matter, but it wasn't clear if it was enough to throw the election.

It's significant that polls show very much fewer undecides this year, so there aren't many to shift. Also it's absolutely true that uncertainty cuts both ways. The range of plausible outcomes goes from Trump eeking out an electoral college victory to a Biden landslide.

The range of uncertainty is pretty broad, but the odds of Biden winning the popular vote by a 10% margin is currently better than the odds of Trump winning the EC by any model I've seen.

Hard to quantify. Trust in U.S. democracy is at a low point whatever the outcome and it's not clear where we go from here.

Sally Vix wrote:

agip wrote:

do you not understand that google is a thing?

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/tucker-carlson/

Agip - I never saw PoltiFact but before but just looking at the website, they are only "fact-checking" conservatives. Why are they not "fact-checking" liberals? You really think I am going to waste my time looking at such a highly partisan hack website as PoltiFact? How about you post some specific lies that Tucker has made and don't waste my time with PoltiFact. Okay?

oh look a bernie sanders politifact page.

Which renders your entire post 'stupid.'

Glad you showed up to demonstrate that, once again, you never have any idea of what you are reading.

Sally Vix wrote:

Agip - I never saw PoltiFact but before but just looking at the website, they are only "fact-checking" conservatives. Why are they not "fact-checking" liberals?

Why do you make claims like this? Anyone can look at the site and see it's nonsense.

agip wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

Agip - I never saw PoltiFact but before but just looking at the website, they are only "fact-checking" conservatives. Why are they not "fact-checking" liberals? You really think I am going to waste my time looking at such a highly partisan hack website as PoltiFact? How about you post some specific lies that Tucker has made and don't waste my time with PoltiFact. Okay?

oh look a bernie sanders politifact page.

Which renders your entire post 'stupid.'

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/bernie-sanders/

A bernie sanders page? Where is the Joe Biden page? Oh that is right. Joe Biden is your only hope in defeating Trump. Heaven forbid having a PoltiFact page! Where is the Joe Biden Poltifact page? And the Bernie Sanders page was probably made to ensure that he not win the Democratic nomination. WHERE IS THE JOE BIDEN PAGE? (And yes, I have not looked for one).

Sally Vix wrote:

agip wrote:

oh look a bernie sanders politifact page.

Which renders your entire post 'stupid.'

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/bernie-sanders/

A bernie sanders page? Where is the Joe Biden page? Oh that is right. Joe Biden is your only hope in defeating Trump. Heaven forbid having a PoltiFact page! Where is the Joe Biden Poltifact page? And the Bernie Sanders page was probably made to ensure that he not win the Democratic nomination. WHERE IS THE JOE BIDEN PAGE? (And yes, I have not looked for one).

I just found the Joe Biden page. And he is listed as "True" only 13% of the time. Do we really want that guy running the country?

Sally Vix wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

A bernie sanders page? Where is the Joe Biden page? Oh that is right. Joe Biden is your only hope in defeating Trump. Heaven forbid having a PoltiFact page! Where is the Joe Biden Poltifact page? And the Bernie Sanders page was probably made to ensure that he not win the Democratic nomination. WHERE IS THE JOE BIDEN PAGE? (And yes, I have not looked for one).

I just found the Joe Biden page. And he is listed as "True" only 13% of the time. Do we really want that guy running the country?

...and you wonder why other posters refer to your intelligence in such a negative light.

Here's another way to look at 2016 vs 2020. I'm comparing national votes here and assuming a fair election, so make of that what you will. But I think the following illustrates why the president is in real trouble:

We are 17 days until the election. If you look at the 538 model from 2016 at 17 days out:

Hillary 45.5%

Antichrist 39.2%

Gary Johnson 6.1%

That's 9.2% that were either undecided or were leaning to Jill Stein or Evan McMullan. Those two together ended up with only 1.61% of the vote. So let's be generous and say we were at 7% undecided at this point in 2016.

Here is how the vote actually went on election day:

Hillary 48.18%

Antichrist 46.09%

Johnson 3.28%

So on election day, Johnson lost half his support. Add that to the undecideds and you get about 10%. Undecideds broke Tiny's way with 7% to President Antichrist and 3% to Hillary.

Now look at the national situation today. Again, we are at 17 days before the election:

Biden 52.4%

Antichrist 41.8%

Undecided and third-party in 2020 is only 5.8% of the vote instead of roughly 10% in 2016.

President antichrist could still pull it out. But there's just not much wiggle room. Where is he going to get the votes from? No major third party candidate has any to give. There aren't many undecideds.

To get to 2016 levels, Antichrist needs to gain 4% while Biden somehow loses 4%. I don't see how that happens.

Sally Vix wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

A bernie sanders page? Where is the Joe Biden page? Oh that is right. Joe Biden is your only hope in defeating Trump. Heaven forbid having a PoltiFact page! Where is the Joe Biden Poltifact page? And the Bernie Sanders page was probably made to ensure that he not win the Democratic nomination. WHERE IS THE JOE BIDEN PAGE? (And yes, I have not looked for one).

I just found the Joe Biden page. And he is listed as "True" only 13% of the time. Do we really want that guy running the country?

Mr Rogers over the crazy uncle anyday.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

Trafalgar??? LOL this guy latches on to new pollsters every week.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/10/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_does_it_again_138621.html

I first mentioned Trafalgar about a month ago and you can keep relying on 538's nonsense until election night.

Enjoy your loss.

You are SOOOO stupid. It is really unbelievable.

That story you linked was from 2018.

TODAY Trafalgar has Biden leading in MN, WI, and PA. In MI, Trafalgar is an outlier with Trump leading, but only by 0.4%. No one else has Trump even close in MI, including Rasmussen and Fox.

So, just so we're clear here, since you are on the Trafalgar train, according to what they say right now with Biden up in MN, WI, and PA, Trump has to win ALL of the other swing states that he won last time that other pollsters say he is losing.

Those states are:

FL

NC

MI

IA (well, Trump could lose this and still win)

AZ

GA

OH

He can't lose any of the above other than IA.

When you consider Texas is within polling error of a Biden win, that's just really bad.

333 for Biden.

TTH wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Anyone who really thinks there's a 11.4 point gap in this race isn't fit to do political analysis. There's literally no way on earth that's a real lead. Ask Cankles about double digit leads late in the election year.

Glad you showed up to demonstrate that, once again, you never have any idea of what you are reading.

Keep believing in 538's ridiculous numbers while I get the last laugh on election night.

Enjoy your loss.

BREAKING NEWS!!! ... Flagpole correctly spelled "Trafalgar." Will wonders never cease?

Looks like serious trouble for the Bidens before and after the election. Here is the chain of events surrounding the computers that even Hunter’s attorney requested returned this past week.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/full-story-behind-hunters-laptops-debunks-latest-russia-conspiracy-theory