But but but muh elder abuse.
But but but muh elder abuse.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Uh oh, it's not looking good for your candidate.
Enthusiasm matters.
Primary votes matter.
Rally size matters.
Voter registration trends matter.
Ground game matters.
Trump is beating Dementia Joe in these metrics.
but, but, but muh polls, muh 538. LOL!!!
https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1316790788110548992https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
For better or for worse, money matters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/biden-fundraising-haul-429546johnny99 wrote:
Keep believing in Nate Silver- the opposite outcome happens.
Is that sort of like believing that Trump will Make American Great Again, and the opposite happens?
Seriously, why do you think Trump is going to flip NH? The last 5 polls on RCP have Biden up by 10, 12, 12, 7, 14. And that Biden +14 poll is Rasmussen.
Cankles won NH by only 2,736 votes in 2016. Former GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte did not support Trump after the Access Hollywood video came out and it hurt him, plus the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson got 30,000 votes. This year's Libertarian candidate is even more under the radar and will have significantly less support in NH.
Trump has a very good shot to flip NH next month.
538 just flipped Ohio from blue to red. I think that's the first time I've seen that happen.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Uh oh, it's not looking good for your candidate.
Enthusiasm matters.
Primary votes matter.
Rally size matters.
Voter registration trends matter.
Ground game matters.
Trump is beating Dementia Joe in these metrics.
but, but, but muh polls, muh 538. LOL!!!
https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1316790788110548992https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
You and Norpoth are the only people who think that primary votes matter.
President George HW Bush got more votes in the 1992 Ohio primary than President Trump got in the 2020 Ohio primary (716,766 v. 682,845). And the 1992 primary was contested by Pat Buchanan, whereas Trump in 2020 was the only candidate on the ballot. Seems to me that if you think that primary votes are important (which I don't, but you do), that's pretty ominous for Trump.
johnny99 wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Uh oh, it's not looking good for your candidate.
Enthusiasm matters.
Primary votes matter.
Rally size matters.
Voter registration trends matter.
Ground game matters.
Trump is beating Dementia Joe in these metrics.
but, but, but muh polls, muh 538. LOL!!!
https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1316790788110548992https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=HomepageFor better or for worse, money matters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/biden-fundraising-haul-429546
Cankles raised more than Trump did in 2016. It didn't matter.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/Rigged for Hillary wrote:
johnny99 wrote:
Is that sort of like believing that Trump will Make American Great Again, and the opposite happens?
Seriously, why do you think Trump is going to flip NH? The last 5 polls on RCP have Biden up by 10, 12, 12, 7, 14. And that Biden +14 poll is Rasmussen.
Cankles won NH by only 2,736 votes in 2016. Former GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte did not support Trump after the Access Hollywood video came out and it hurt him, plus the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson got 30,000 votes. This year's Libertarian candidate is even more under the radar and will have significantly less support in NH.
Trump has a very good shot to flip NH next month.
And this time around, Trump will again not get the support of either NH Senator, so no change there from 2016. And I'd say you're in the minority in believing that the Libertarian candidate in 2016 hurt Trump more than Hillary.
It was very close in 2016, and anything's possible I suppose. But it looks grim for Trump in NH.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Kippy Woods wrote:
How do you not understand this? Are you mentally ill?
538 is NOT A PREDICTION. It is a probabilistic model! They estimate the likelihood of outcomes!
It's like I'm telling you that there's a 30% chance of rolling a 5 or less, yet you roll a 10 and claim I'm wrong. Do you understand how stupid you sound?
Keep believing in Nate Silver- the opposite outcome happens.
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1316807912245751809https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1316808629274648577https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1316806644085391360Barnes Law & People Pundit are destroying Nate Silver.
Enjoy your loss.
You are the dumbest person I have ever had the displeasure of interacting with.
I haven't even expressed my political opinions- for all you know I could be a Trump supporter.
Suppose I claimed that there was a 70% chance of rolling a 6 or greater and you rolled a 5. Would you say I was wrong?
Someone with the intelligence of a 2nd grader might do so.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
johnny99 wrote:
For better or for worse, money matters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/biden-fundraising-haul-429546Cankles raised more than Trump did in 2016. It didn't matter.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/
That's what I'd say too if I supported Trump. And sometimes it's true, the candidate who raises more doesn't always win. But I'm pretty sure that the candidate who raises more wins more often than not. And Trump's not an outsider with no record to defend this time around. And he's not running against Hillary. And we're not coming off of 8 years of a Democrat in the White House.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Uh oh, it's not looking good for your candidate.
Enthusiasm matters.
Primary votes matter.
Rally size matters.
Voter registration trends matter.
Ground game matters.
Trump is beating Dementia Joe in these metrics.
but, but, but muh polls, muh 538. LOL!!!
https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1316790788110548992https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Show me a presidential election where the results have been as far removed from the polls as you are suggesting?
You can't.
Alan
Dickie Lipton wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Keep believing in Nate Silver- the opposite outcome happens.
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1316807912245751809https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1316808629274648577https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1316806644085391360Barnes Law & People Pundit are destroying Nate Silver.
Enjoy your loss.
You are the dumbest person I have ever had the displeasure of interacting with.
I haven't even expressed my political opinions- for all you know I could be a Trump supporter.
Suppose I claimed that there was a 70% chance of rolling a 6 or greater and you rolled a 5. Would you say I was wrong?
Someone with the intelligence of a 2nd grader might do so.
You keep mixing up your multiple handles. Kippy, Dickie or whatever you want call yourself. You're no Trump supporter.
Fat hurts wrote:
538 just flipped Ohio from blue to red. I think that's the first time I've seen that happen.
It was never blue.
Nate showing 2016 headlines explaining that Trump had a real shot:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1316836239564304388?s=20
Trump is now losing to Biden WITH WHITE PEOPLE.
That's how terrible a candidate he is.
He cost the Republican party old people and white people. I mean think about that. He wrecked the two pillars of the R party.
If he next loses the Kremlin, the Rs will truly be lost.
"Notably, Biden is leading in this survey with white voters 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points, and no Democrat has won that high a share of white voters since Jimmy Carter in 1976, when the U.S. was far less racially diverse."
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/923946468/poll-biden-takes-double-digit-lead-over-trump
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Dickie Lipton wrote:
You are the dumbest person I have ever had the displeasure of interacting with.
I haven't even expressed my political opinions- for all you know I could be a Trump supporter.
Suppose I claimed that there was a 70% chance of rolling a 6 or greater and you rolled a 5. Would you say I was wrong?
Someone with the intelligence of a 2nd grader might do so.
You keep mixing up your multiple handles. Kippy, Dickie or whatever you want call yourself. You're no Trump supporter.
I have to keep changing handles because of this $hitty website design.
Suppose I am a Trump supporter (MAGAKAG) and I claimed that there was a 70% chance of rolling a 6 or greater and you rolled a 5. Would you say I was wrong?
And yes, The Gap is *really* volatile: now up to 11.6 percentage points as DJT's approval rating takes a hit
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/.
Runningart2004 wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Uh oh, it's not looking good for your candidate.
Enthusiasm matters.
Primary votes matter.
Rally size matters.
Voter registration trends matter.
Ground game matters.
Trump is beating Dementia Joe in these metrics.
but, but, but muh polls, muh 538. LOL!!!
https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1316790788110548992https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=HomepageShow me a presidential election where the results have been as far removed from the polls as you are suggesting?
You can't.
Alan
2016.
Nobody on LR except for myself has predicted a Trump victory. You libs cannot fathom a Biden loss. You need to remove your TDS goggles and start paying attention to Trafalgar (2016's most accurate pollster), Barnes Law, Peoples Pundit & Norpoth. Trump has always overperformed his "poll" numbers.
Plus, with college students mostly staying at home- the (liberal) youth vote will be significantly down from 2016 as the "get out the vote" drive on college campuses are DOA in 2020.
You're gonna lose and leave LR forever.
KAG2020
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
You libs cannot fathom a Biden loss.
I guess I can't really speak for the libs--I've never cast a ballot on the Democratic line, for any office--but the ones I'm surrounded *absolutely* can envision a Trump victory (aka Biden loss) in 19 days. It's why they're going so nuts with their donations and postcard writing and so on.
Possibly the LRC Dems/libs are a little more complacent (or optimistic, I suppose). A *serious* mistake on their part IMO.