Rigged for Hillary wrote:
No enthusiam for Biden-Harris.
https://mobile.twitter.com/InfidelAngela/status/1315359365893967874
Is this going to be your proof that Biden cheated when the vote count starts to show trump is going home devastated?
agip wrote:
TTH wrote:
I think it is just as likely that there are shy and newly formed anti trumpers. I've been in groups, since I live in Trump country, in which they'll be 10 people with one or two loudmouth Trump supporters who everyone either goes along with or remains silent....which includes me to keep the peace (or I'll just walk away). Within those groups there are typically at least a few who have indicated to me or my wife that they either won't vote at all because of Trump or will vote for Biden which is essentially the same thing. Trump is losing votes at the very least and some of them are turning into Biden votes.
Ja, and I'd add that the story of 2020 is going to be:
1) The gender divide. Women are lost to trump - massively.
2) Age 65+ is now lost to trump. This is startling and utterly amazing. How incompetent does a R president have to be to lose white senior citizens? They were the bulwark of the R electorate .
3) There aren't many undecideds left. In 2016 there were many 'I hate them both' people who decided at the last minute to go with Spanks. That messed up the polling. That's not happening this year - hardly anyone is still deciding.
All that is terrible for Trump and great for Joe. Gives us reasons to think polling is predictive of the final result.
Very good post
Dementia Joe can’t get 30 people to attend his rallies but yesterday Miami- Dade had 30,000 cars in a parade for Trump
The polls are lying. The eyes don't lie.
313 EV for Trump.
KAG2020
Trollminator wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
No enthusiam for Biden-Harris.
https://mobile.twitter.com/InfidelAngela/status/1315359365893967874Is this going to be your proof that Biden cheated when the vote count starts to show trump is going home devastated?
Dementia Joe is not winning AZ.
AZ, PA, FL & NC will remain Trump country. MN and NH will flip red. Trump's path to 270 is easily done.
bu, but, but muh polls.
Enjoy your loss.
I did some quick analysis:
If the polling averages state by state are exactly right as of the end of September it shows Biden 375, Trump 163. There might be some slight differences depending on which average you use but it will be in that range.
If you shift 1.5 points to Trump (and subtract 1.5 from Biden, so really a 3 point switch) across all states at current polling = 291 Biden / 247 Trump. A pretty big shift.
Shifting 2 points to Trump / subtract 2 from Biden (which was roughly what happened in 2016) doesn't change much: 290 Biden / 248 Trump.
3 points to Trump = 279 Biden / 259 Trump. Thus, Biden could lose all states where he's ahead less than 6 points and still win the election.
3.5 points to Trump = 276 Trump / 262 Biden. You would need a 7 point switch for Trump to win as of right now. The polls would have to be nearly twice as far off as last time.
4 points to Trump = 312 Trump / 226 Biden
5 points to Trump = 335 Trump / 203 Biden.
Of course, the polls can be wrong the other way too:
1.5 to Biden = same as current polling - 375 / 163
2 to Biden = 414 / 124
3 to Biden = 426 / 112
3.5 to Biden = 442 / 96
4 to Biden = 442 / 96
5 to Biden = 445 / 93
The last cycle Trump did consistently overperform his polling (primaries and general). It's possible, maybe even likely, that he will this time too. It's also possible that the swing voters who took a flyer on him last time because they:
A - hated HRC
B - figured she would win and made a "protest" vote
C - wanted a "businessman" in the office
might ditch him this time. After all, they weren't ironclad for him last time which means they obviously had problems with him. Has he done anything to dispel that? I say no. HRC isn't running. While Trump is behind in the polls, the majority of the public (56 to 40) thinks he'll win. 90% of Republicans think he'll win. That's amazing. Even 30% of Democrats think he'll win (Independents are roughly at the national average). So there isn't any "Biden will win anyway so let's protest against the establishment" voter right now.
Finally, as should be abundantly clear, Trump is a great celebrity but not a great businessman. His 3 most successful ventures according to the tax docs are:
A - Inheriting money
B - the Apprentice, playing on his best skill, being a celebrity. In fairness to Trump, there are lots of people who want to be a celebrity and who are not one and will not be one. Trump does have an ability to stay in the spotlight.
C - some properties he has a stake in but are managed by someone else.
He lost money in NY real estate in the 80's, which is like the house losing money at a casino. Also, he lost money being the house at his casinos.
Trump can still win - if Trump picks up a couple of points over the next month and he picks up the extra two points like he did last time, it would give him the win. So Trump could win - no one should be too surprised (and Biden could get 440 EV - no one should be too surprised).
I'm going right now with the 290 Biden / 248 Trump outcome, which frankly would be pretty disappointingly narrow for Biden. I would say that anything outside that 2 percent range (so a 4 point total swing) in either direction would be somewhat (but not too!) surprising.
I feel and fear, however, that a lot of people are going to be surprised no matter what happens and that's worrisome.
Trollminator wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
No enthusiam for Biden-Harris.
https://mobile.twitter.com/InfidelAngela/status/1315359365893967874Is this going to be your proof that Biden cheated when the vote count starts to show trump is going home devastated?
Because it’s totally reasonable for no one to show up to a rally of a presidential candidate who is up by 10-14 points in the polls.
Keep believing in your polls. The eyes don't lie.
Norpoth calls another election right.
Cankles 2.0 has started.
Silver fails.
The lib meltdown is coming.
Trump wins, Trump wins AGAIN!
But but but the debates.
Psst ... don't tell Biff. Trump enthusiasm is kaput in Florida.
In Florida, he said, 11.5 percent of Democrats who requested absentee ballots have returned them, compared with 8.7 percent of Republicans. The same pattern emerges in another battleground state, North Carolina, where the return rate for Democratic ballots is 32.9 percent and the return rate for Republicans is 27.4 percent.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/10/us/politics/early-voting-swing-states.html
zephito wrote:
I feel and fear, however, that a lot of people are going to be surprised no matter what happens and that's worrisome.
Nowadays so many people only have dealings with the like-minded. It reminds me of the tongue-in-cheek remark that the movie critic Pauline Kael made after Richard Nixon's landslide win in 1972: "Nixon can't have won. I don't know anybody who voted for him."
With social media and a plethora of news (or "news") channels available, it's entirely possible for a Trump supporter to go through a normal day and not encounter any identifiable Biden supporter. I know people/relations for whom this is absolutely true, and if the President is not re-elected they're likely to be astounded (and maybe very upset and/or angry).
Living in Manhattan, I also know plenty of people who in an ordinary day will *not once* encounter someone who could be identified as a Trump voter. Just too easy to assume everyone shares your view.
Strangely enough, I think one benefit of this weird thread is that it does kinda force us to encounter people with other opinions, and I think makes it clearer that the 2020 presidential election is not a done deal in either direction. (I'm of the "neither gets to 300" persuasion.)
Reminds me of one of my favorite quotations, from John Stuart Mill:
“He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that. His reasons may be good, and no one may have been able to refute them. But if he is equally unable to refute the reasons on the opposite side, if he does not so much as know what they are, he has no ground for preferring either opinion... Nor is it enough that he should hear the opinions of adversaries from his own teachers, presented as they state them, and accompanied by what they offer as refutations. He must be able to hear them from persons who actually believe them...he must know them in their most plausible and persuasive form.”
Trollminator wrote:
A piece of $hit President
Dr. Fauci did not consent to being featured in a Trump campaign ad about the president's coronavirus response & says his words were taken out of context. "In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate."
Hey Rigged et al....what is your take on this?
For the record, here is what Fauci originally said.
"I have been devoting almost full-time on this - almost full-time. I'm down at the White House virtually every day with the task force. I'm connected by phone throughout the day and into the night and when I say night, I'm talking 12, 1, 2 in the morning. I'm not the only one. There's a whole group of us that are doing that. It's every single day. So I can't imagine that that under any circumstances that anybody could be doing more. I mean, obviously, we're fighting a formidable enemy - this virus. This virus is a serious issue here."
How desperate and unethical do you have to be to do that?
It is very clear that Fauci was talking about everyone else other than Trump.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Dementia Joe can’t get 30 people to attend his rallies but yesterday Miami- Dade had 30,000 cars in a parade for Trump
The polls are lying. The eyes don't lie.
313 EV for Trump.
KAG2020
Cognitive dissonance at its best! Ignore all info, instead go by the the number of cars at a local rally.
Biden is currently a 72% favorite to win Florida
Still losing over 700 people per day.
New infections are at the highest levels since early August.
He couldn't keep his own house safe and he couldn't keep the American people safe either.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Is this going to be your proof that Biden cheated when the vote count starts to show trump is going home devastated?
Because it’s totally reasonable for no one to show up to a rally of a presidential candidate who is up by 10-14 points in the polls.
Keep believing in your polls. The eyes don't lie.
Norpoth calls another election right.
Cankles 2.0 has started.
Silver fails.
The lib meltdown is coming.
Trump wins, Trump wins AGAIN!
You are a fool. Here's another video of a Biden appearance in Arizona.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1314357780061405184People there. Cheers. Most Democrats are smart enough not to go to a stupid Trump-like rally during a pandemic, you moron. You are the dumbest person I have ever encountered.
Gina wrote:
But but but the debates.
The libs declared Cankles the winner of all the 2016 debates. How did that work out for ya?
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Gina wrote:
But but but the debates.
The libs declared Cankles the winner of all the 2016 debates. How did that work out for ya?
Irrelevant.
But what is relevant is that YOU spent MONTHS telling us that Biden would get destroyed by Trump in the debates or Biden would chicken out.
That never materialized and you were left with egg on your bend over Biff face. Trump is a chicken.
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Dementia Joe can’t get 30 people to attend his rallies but yesterday Miami- Dade had 30,000 cars in a parade for Trump
The polls are lying. The eyes don't lie.
313 EV for Trump.
KAG2020
Cognitive dissonance at its best! Ignore all info, instead go by the the number of cars at a local rally.
Biden is currently a 72% favorite to win Florida
Forget your polls. The voter registration gap in FL has narrowed significantly since 2016. Trump will do better in both Broward & Miami-Dade. He will have a bigger margin over Dementia Joe than he had over Cankles. FL will not only remain Trump country but also get more red. Your 72% favorite line is garbage.
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-florida-archive-elections-voting-2020-35937fde0143780c5824c4d136311e45KAG2020
Gina wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
The libs declared Cankles the winner of all the 2016 debates. How did that work out for ya?
Irrelevant.
But what is relevant is that YOU spent MONTHS telling us that Biden would get destroyed by Trump in the debates or Biden would chicken out.
That never materialized and you were left with egg on your bend over Biff face. Trump is a chicken.
When Trump wins reelection, it will be you with egg om your face. Your candidate is still phoning it in.
Enjoy your loss.
Smorbun wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Because it’s totally reasonable for no one to show up to a rally of a presidential candidate who is up by 10-14 points in the polls.
Keep believing in your polls. The eyes don't lie.
Norpoth calls another election right.
Cankles 2.0 has started.
Silver fails.
The lib meltdown is coming.
Trump wins, Trump wins AGAIN!
You are a fool. Here's another video of a Biden appearance in Arizona.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1314357780061405184People there. Cheers. Most Democrats are smart enough not to go to a stupid Trump-like rally during a pandemic, you moron. You are the dumbest person I have ever encountered.
That's a crowd? Bahahahaha!!!! !!!! Absolutely pathetic. You're reaching.
You will lose and leave LR forever. Dementia Joe is lowest energy & worst campaigner in modern history. I never believed anyone would underperform Cankles, but it's going happen. PA will go to Trump. AZ will go to Trump. Your time is running out. Tick, tick, tick...
Biff > Sourpole
Norpoth> 538
Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020