Not surprising and like most of us have been saying all along, but still a good read
Not surprising and like most of us have been saying all along, but still a good read
Dan Kahneman wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
My 2c - I still think bull blown cheating and law breaking is in the cards for trump to steal the win. I need to be convinced Rs won’t help him. But yeah otherwise there is no way he can actually win at this point.
True, one can't dismiss the effect of the cheating factor.
This election is like waiting for the results of a cancer biopsy. You know it will probably be fine, but you still want to get the results back confirming it. You can't drop the anxiety about it till you actually see the results.
Great analogy, that and even when I see the results I need to wait until mid December to be sure
538 up another tick, to 86% for Joe
Polling average at 10.3%, also a new high.
Senate from 68%-76%, depending on which model you use
House at 98% for the Dems
Looking good.
agip wrote:
Looking good.
Hmm. And yet The Gap has dropped back to single digits. Barely, but still.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/Trollminator wrote:
https://www.psypost.org/2020/10/trump-support-is-less-important-than-ethnic-antagonism-in-explaining-anti-democratic-views-among-republicans-58225
“There are two key findings. First, there is a lot of anti-democratic sentiment out there. For example, half of Republicans agree that ‘The traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it.’ Almost three-fourths agree that ‘It is hard to trust the results of elections when so many people will vote for anyone who offers a handout,'” Bartels told PsyPost.
In addition, 41.3 percent agreed that “A time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands.”
“Second, those attitudes are firmly grounded in what I call ‘ethnic antagonism’ — especially concerns that Blacks and immigrants and Latinos are too powerful and getting more than their fair share of government resources. Economic conservatism, cultural conservatism, partisanship, and even enthusiasm for President Trump are much less important in accounting for Republicans’ anti-democratic attitudes,” Bartels said.
*ahem* wrote:
agip wrote:
Looking good.
Hmm. And yet The Gap has dropped back to single digits. Barely, but still.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
That's not the general election. That's Trump's approval rating which has stabilized around 42-44% for a while now.
The general election is here
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/And the forecast is here
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/In NATIONAL polls Biden is up 10.3%. Trump is being given a 14% chance of winning the electoral college. For a comparison to the 2016 election, Clinton had only a 4.3% lead on election day in 2016, so Biden's lead is over double Clinton's. Also in 2016 there was a significant third party challenger polling with 5.4% of the vote. Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning the electoral college in 2016. Obviously we all know the outcome. Trump won the electoral college and Clinton win the popular vote by 2%. Of course last time the October surprise was Clinton's Emails, this time around its just Trump being a baffon. The polling error this year will have to be significantly larger than in 2016 for Trump to win.
Some important states to look at
PA - Biden has over a 7 point lead (I'd like to add I live in Philly. In 2016 there was very low turnout due to apathy towards Clinton and dismissal of the seriousness of Trumps campaign. That isn't happening again).
NV - again Biden has over a 7 point lead.
WI - 7 point lead yet again
For reference Trumo only has a 2 point lead in Texas...
And that puts Biden over 270 already. It's not a good scenario for Trump.
In addition Biden has good chances in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Ohio.
For a visual if the election was today this is the projected map based on polling
https://www.270towin.com/maps/vGJB2Facts and Logic wrote:
Of course last time the October surprise was Clinton's Emails, this time around its just Trump being a baffon.
"buffoon"
*ahem* wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
https://www.psypost.org/2020/10/trump-support-is-less-important-than-ethnic-antagonism-in-explaining-anti-democratic-views-among-republicans-58225“There are two key findings. First, there is a lot of anti-democratic sentiment out there. For example, half of Republicans agree that ‘The traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it.’ Almost three-fourths agree that ‘It is hard to trust the results of elections when so many people will vote for anyone who offers a handout,'” Bartels told PsyPost.
In addition, 41.3 percent agreed that “A time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands.”
“Second, those attitudes are firmly grounded in what I call ‘ethnic antagonism’ — especially concerns that Blacks and immigrants and Latinos are too powerful and getting more than their fair share of government resources. Economic conservatism, cultural conservatism, partisanship, and even enthusiasm for President Trump are much less important in accounting for Republicans’ anti-democratic attitudes,” Bartels said.
In other words, if an even bigger a$$hole and ethnic antagonist runs for president we can rest assured R support for that individual will be even stronger.
Trollminator wrote:
In other words, if an even bigger a$$hole and ethnic antagonist runs for president we can rest assured R support for that individual will be even stronger.
Yep. They hate and (especially) fear change. Anybody who promises to retard, resist, and reverse change is THEIR GUY.
Krugman raised a good point today - he sees a potential problem with all those white no-college men living in the red bubble.
If Trump loses by 7-10 points, those dudes will be utterly shocked. They are completely unprepared for a loss of that size. Millions of them, like Rigged, think that Trump is dominant and will pull out a win. They don't read normal news - they get all their info from Facebook and right wing radio. So they think this is America vs Communism.
So what will those guys, many of whom are heavily armed...do? Will the shock and surprise of a large loss to 'Communism' goad them into action?
Or will they just shrug and go back to their boats, trucks and ATVs?
agip wrote:
Krugman raised a good point today - he sees a potential problem with all those white no-college men living in the red bubble.
If Trump loses by 7-10 points, those dudes will be utterly shocked. They are completely unprepared for a loss of that size. Millions of them, like Rigged, think that Trump is dominant and will pull out a win. They don't read normal news - they get all their info from Facebook and right wing radio. So they think this is America vs Communism.
So what will those guys, many of whom are heavily armed...do? Will the shock and surprise of a large loss to 'Communism' goad them into action?
Or will they just shrug and go back to their boats, trucks and ATVs?
And they will be told by right wing media that the election was stolen from trump, who will give them the order to do something about it. And in accordance with their micro penis militia charters, they will tell themselves this is exactly the situation they have been preparing for. Powder keg situation.
Trollminator wrote:
He's coming to Sanford Florida Monday (I think). It's at the airport and could be a shortened speech as well.
Last chance to catch a live glimpse of the orange goddess?[/quote]
Close enough - 90 minutes or so - to The Villages where he seems to have lost some support. Support he absolutely has to carry to win FL.
Trollminator wrote:
No trump advisor should be telling him to debate Biden though, period. He’d look like a total idiot yelling while muted. And then once he gets a chance to respond he would just complain about the format and throw out some conspiracy theory. It doesn’t help trump at all if he’s unable to bark. I think he’ll probably not do the third debate unless they get anything to stick on Biden by then.
Unless the Trump team can somehow make it appear that it is Biden who doesn't want to debate.....which they gave up on quickly after trying that for the proposed virtual debate....I think Trump has to and will go through with the final debate. He may try the same tactic in just shouting over everyone just to keep the conversation away from his record and try and tread water with his base....not that this debate would likely change anyone's mind.
Polls dont win elections. Voter turnout does and its looking bad for Dementia Joe in most states. Pushing vote by mail wasn't a good idea. Trump has the enthusiastic base, he has the superior ground game & Bernie supporters are staying home.
If Dementia Joe was up 10 points he would not visit blue states such as MN & NV.
You 538 supporters are going to be bigly depressed when Trump wins next month.
Norpoth is the presidential election guru.
Enjoy your loss.
TTH wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
He's coming to Sanford Florida Monday (I think). It's at the airport and could be a shortened speech as well.
Last chance to catch a live glimpse of the orange goddess?
Close enough - 90 minutes or so - to The Villages where he seems to have lost some support. Support he absolutely has to carry to win FL.[/quote]
Let's see if he won't go out any further than the outside of the plane door. That would be similar to the COVITA return event and the Saturday rally event (the 2000 person rally attended by 400 people). He won't be very far from where he can get out of sight and collapse and get another drug cocktail and canned air.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Voter turnout does and its looking bad for Dementia Joe in most states.
No its not but thanks for playing.
Dan Kahneman wrote:
True, one can't dismiss the effect of the cheating factor.
This election is like waiting for the results of a cancer biopsy. You know it will probably be fine, but you still want to get the results back confirming it. You can't drop the anxiety about it till you actually see the results.
Nice analogy.
However, if you don't mind, I would suggest that a better one would be that this election is like waiting for the results of a cancer surgery. You sure as heck hope that it will be fine, but you are terrified that it might not be. And nothing is going to get better until the cancer is removed.