Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Runningart2004 wrote:

Because he can't filter out his bias. If the polls showed Trump ahead or at least within the margin of error I would be less confident.

There would be no Runningart Challenge if Trump was up 5-10%.

Alan

You already know when Nate Silver is wrong again, he'll start writing crap like, "I gave Trump a 20% chance to win, and not 0%, so technically my model was right." It will be another "cover your ass" excuse. He's such a tool, a fraud & soon to be unemployed.

Also, watch out for muh polls to magically tighten in last 7-10 days before election day, That will represent the reality as the D+ oversamples are removed. Then, Nate Silver will declare, "see, we're an accurate pollster!" just to save face.

Enjoy your loss.

LOL trumpers literally don't understand the concept of probability ?

Trump cultists are innumerate.

Hey Rigged, maybe a cartoon is more your style?

Let's try this...

It's like 538 is giving you a prediction on the roll of two dice just one time...

Here are the possible results:

Result Number of combinations Probability

2 1 2.78%

3 2 5.56%

4 3 8.33%

5 4 11.11%

6 5 13.89%

7 6 16.67%

8 5 13.89%

9 4 11.11%

10 3 8.33%

11 2 5.56%

12 1 2.78%

Total 36 100%

So, there are 36 different ways one roll of the two dice can come up.

538 is saying your boy, trump, has about the same chance of winning as he would have to get either a 2, 3, or 4 on one roll of the dice. About 16% chance... 6 out of 36 possible outcomes.

538 recognizes (and says so) that since it's only one roll of the dice (one election) that the result of this one roll actually could be a 2, 3, or 4 (trump win) but that it is more likely that the result will be a number greater than 4 (biden win).

538 is not saying biden will win no matter what. they are just giving their estimate of probability of the potential election results.

Does that help you be less angry with 538? Because you seem so angry when anyone mentions 538. You don't need to be... really. It's just math and statistics.

Hope that helps you.

cheers!

fifi wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

You already know when Nate Silver is wrong again, he'll start writing crap like, "I gave Trump a 20% chance to win, and not 0%, so technically my model was right." It will be another "cover your ass" excuse. He's such a tool, a fraud & soon to be unemployed.

Also, watch out for muh polls to magically tighten in last 7-10 days before election day, That will represent the reality as the D+ oversamples are removed. Then, Nate Silver will declare, "see, we're an accurate pollster!" just to save face.

Enjoy your loss.

LOL trumpers literally don't understand the concept of probability ?

Trump cultists are innumerate.

Hey Rigged, maybe a cartoon is more your style?

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/prediction.png

You gonna be around when Trump wins next month? I think not.

Enjoy your loss.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

fifi wrote:

LOL trumpers literally don't understand the concept of probability ?

Trump cultists are innumerate.

Hey Rigged, maybe a cartoon is more your style?

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/prediction.png

You gonna be around when Trump wins next month? I think not.

Enjoy your loss.

I hope I will be done with this website by then! I truly hate this place!

Or to make this even simpler...

538 is saying trump has the same chance as he would have of rolling a 7 ... so you can still put your money on the pass line.

Norpoth > 538

Trafalgar> 538 (they predicted 306 EV for Trump in 2016)

You libs continue to disbelieve the reality. I will be proven right on election night and you will still make excuses for ? poll reader Silver.

I will be right on election night. Your candidate will lose.

Accept it.

Enjoy your loss.

KAG2020

L L wrote:

I thinks there’s an interesting development happening in the Barrett confirmation.

We know the are 3 R senators in quarantine with covid plus Murkowski is voting no.

So yes leads 49-48

Now Lindsey Graham is refusing to take a covid test ahead of a debate with his rival for his senate seat.

Senators must be present for the vote.

Some are refusing tests so they won’t show a positive test.

Can Democrats insist all voting senators submit a negative test before they get in the same room and vote? For their safety.

Like track. You can’t refuse a drug test and line up in a race.

Interesting, but doesn’t Mitch get to change the rules and not the Dems?

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

You gonna be around when Trump wins next month? I think not.

Wait, are you the "round them up and charge them with treason" poster?

Well, ok then! wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

You gonna be around when Trump wins next month? I think not.

Wait, are you the "round them up and charge them with treason" poster?

Would you be surprised?

First one of the Bin Ladens, now the Taliban...

https://twitter.com/ohnoshetwitnt/status/1315034369359253504?s=21

It’s obvious Barrett will be confirmed.

Democrats can insist on covid tests in light of the recent positives or they won’t assemble for the vote.

Mitch has been staying away from the White House since August because of their poor protocols. He’s afraid of the virus.

If Mitch proceeds with the vote without conceding this request, the Dems can boycott.

Let her be confirmed 47-0.

Make a big show out of how Republicans are ramming this through and don’t care about people’s health risk.

And for the 3rd time, radio silence from sally on this

https://twitter.com/revdrbarber/status/1315035636303310848?s=21

did you read anything I wrote?

nowhere in my post did I say anything about believing or not believing 538... i said nothing about the accuracy of their probability forecast... yet now it seems you are angry with not only 538 but with me..

I think 538 is probably more realistic than you because you believe trump has a 100% chance of winning.... they seem to be more rational in that they think that in a binary election the outcome could actually be one or the other... you, not so much.

please note, i am not mad at norpoth or trafalgar for their predictions... i feel no anger towards them whatsoever...

and truthfully, you certainly are correct, I am not a trump fan but unfortunately i do think he is going to win this election...

cheers

L L wrote:

If Mitch proceeds with the vote without conceding this request, the Dems can boycott.

Let her be confirmed 47-0.

There has to be quorum (over 50%). At least 51 votes are required in the Senate. The only way to get below 51 is of there are fewer than 100 members. A quorum would be 50 votes if one senate seat was vacant. Pence is not considered for the quorum requirement ... senators only.