Rigged for Hillary wrote:
It's looking grim for Dementia Joe in FL. Voter registrations are trending bigly for Trump. Cankles had 63% for Miami-Dade County in 2016. Dementia Joe is in danger of falling below the 60% threshold- if that happens, FL will be called for Trump early on election night.
Biden is up by 5% in Florida with all but one poll (of dozens) putting him ahead for weeks, the gap has been increasing during that period.
The law and order president attacks the Governor after the terror plot was thwarted, not a word about the criminals:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
The law and order president attacks the Governor after the terror plot was thwarted, not a word about the criminals:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-said-michigan-governor-has-hatred-in-her-heart-2020-10
Don't worry, Pompeo is hot on trail of Hillary's emails. Only a matter of time before the real scoundrels are brought to justice!
this is it wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
The law and order president attacks the Governor after the terror plot was thwarted, not a word about the criminals:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-said-michigan-governor-has-hatred-in-her-heart-2020-10Don't worry, Pompeo is hot on trail of Hillary's emails. Only a matter of time before the real scoundrels are brought to justice!
They found the scoundrel and clammed up. It was some guy in New Jersey who hacked the emails, just as Trump said. They found the guy was getting paychecks from several different Trump companies.
https://themoscowproject.org/collusion/trump-defends-putin-guy-home-new-jersey/agip wrote:
*ahem* wrote:
Huh. I didn't find it so. Charges are not the same as convictions; there is a presumption of innocence; and the sheriff gave a good brief explanation of the differences between various (potential) acts. I don't see a particular problem with *him* in *that* interview.
yeah I agree..I don't think the sheriff was excusing the perps, he was just explaining what they might have been thinking. Trying to tell the full story.
But his version isn't part of the "whole story" unless he knows they were going for an arrest rather than a kidnapping. I wouldn't have a problem with him explaining the arrest angle if the FBI hadn't pointed out that after the group grabbed the Gov, they were going to take her to a remote Wisconsin location an conduct a trial. I'm quite sure that the Michigan law on citizen arrest for an active felony doesn't authorize a citizen trial.
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
It's looking grim for Dementia Joe in FL. Voter registrations are trending bigly for Trump. Cankles had 63% for Miami-Dade County in 2016. Dementia Joe is in danger of falling below the 60% threshold- if that happens, FL will be called for Trump early on election night.
Biden is up by 5% in Florida with all but one poll (of dozens) putting him ahead for weeks, the gap has been increasing during that period.
Polls are the least predictive data point for elections. You are ignoring primary results, district trends, economic indicators, voter registration, ground game and enthusiasm of the base- these are the best indicators for predicting elections. Follow these election experts as they have destroyed 538 pathetic predictions: @Peoples_Pundit and @Barnes_Law.
Trump is going to win next month with 313 EV, minimum. He is also going to flip a couple states from 2016.
but, but, but muh polls
One "enthusiasm" factor that will be interesting to see play out: the postcards that Dems are handwriting to voters.
One of my former students is a Facebook friend and she posted that she's already received *three* postcards urging her to vote (which she definitely was going to do anyway). She lives in Ohio, and that may be part of it; but I've been told that multiple tens of millions of these cards have been sent across the country (apparently more than a million went to Florida just for registered Dems who were not yet signed up for Vote By Mail).
I know a couple people who have sent *thousands* of these cards (and they pay for the cards and the postage, which adds up fast--plus the time involved in writing each card by hand). We'll see whether the cards actually make a difference, but I haven't seen anything about GOPers sending similar cards to registered Republicans. So it's going to be interest to see what the outcome is.
If it looks like the cards might have tipped the balance in one or two close contests, the GOP may adopt the same practice in future.
The ability of Trump supporters to be completely delusional is astounding. Trump won running on anti-establishment rhetoric in 2016. Even then he managed to win due to the unique quirks of the electoral colleges winner take all system. Don't let the electoral college fool you, he won by a very, very slim margin in 2016. He's never been a popular present and he's never had to the support of the people.
Nothing should make this administrations failures more obvious than the fact they're still trying to run on make america great again and anti-establishment rhetoric. There's just one glaring problem. Trump and his cronies have BEEN the establishment for the past 4 years. They've overseen an economy with no opportunity, a government with blatant disregard for scientific facts, and now the end result is the complete mismanagement of a viral outbreak and the economy leading to one of the worse catastrophe's in American history. No amount of rhetoric about China and socialism can change the fact the through all of the crises 2020 has presented, and the federal governments horrible responses to each one of them, Trump has been the man in charge of it all.
Trump is completely unhinged. I cannot not for the life of me think of another president in US history going a full on Alex Jones style rampage and cursing on national TV. It is very clear that Trump is not fit to lead. The last year is proof that he's running this nation into the ground. He's so desperate that he's attempting to appeal to right wing extremist and terrorist.
Trump has been handed so many easy propoganda wins this year and has still managed to screw up. COVID was an opportunity to let the nations medical experts take over and prove the strength of our medical system and government, proving his leadership and giving him a chance to dismiss his doubters and justify his rhetoric about the danger China poses. Instead he was a complete baffon, praising China and Xi Jingping as the virus began to spread worldwide, and spreading misinformation about the virus. He had an easy opportunity to step up as a leader, comfort a nation in a time of lead when civil unrest broke out. Instead he spewed extremist propaganda and racist rhetoric and fanned the flames.
The majority of Americans are not stupid. The majority of Americans will not perform the most twisted mental gymnastics to ignore their own eyes and facts and instead listen to a liar, a failed businessman, a man with the mental capacity of a 10 year old and the vocabulary of a 6 year old. The GOP has gone all in on this populist bullcrap. The result is a scar on the American psyche and a generation of youth that will likely never vote republican.
Trump had the 2020 election handed to him a silver platter. He put it in gift wrap and presented it to Joe Biden all the while screaming that Biden was stealing it. There's no one to blame for all of this but the man in charge himself.
And BTW really mods, censoring Trumps flagship Acronym? Has it really been getting spammed here that much?
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Biden is up by 5% in Florida with all but one poll (of dozens) putting him ahead for weeks, the gap has been increasing during that period.
Polls are the least predictive data point for elections. You are ignoring primary results, district trends, economic indicators, voter registration, ground game and enthusiasm of the base- these are the best indicators for predicting elections. Follow these election experts as they have destroyed 538 pathetic predictions: @Peoples_Pundit and @Barnes_Law.
Trump is going to win next month with 313 EV, minimum. He is also going to flip a couple states from 2016.
but, but, but muh polls
Got it, you are managing way more variables that give you a very confident picture of 313. So how much money are you betting then that Trump will win the election by even one electoral vote? I'm just going by the misleading polls, this has to be a slam dunk bet for you!
SeattleSilver wrote:
agip wrote:
yeah I agree..I don't think the sheriff was excusing the perps, he was just explaining what they might have been thinking. Trying to tell the full story.
But his version isn't part of the "whole story" unless he knows they were going for an arrest rather than a kidnapping. I wouldn't have a problem with him explaining the arrest angle if the FBI hadn't pointed out that after the group grabbed the Gov, they were going to take her to a remote Wisconsin location an conduct a trial. I'm quite sure that the Michigan law on citizen arrest for an active felony doesn't authorize a citizen trial.
This whole "arrest" angle is insane.
You cannot execute a citizen's arrest on a politician with whom you disagree or who makes you "angry" as that sheriff described. You can protest, vote, file a lawsuit . . . but you cannot arrest them because of their policies. That's batsh!t crazy
It is hard to believe that some on here are coming to the defense of the sheriff as if this notion of making an arrest is something other than insane.
You know that being nice and truthful is part of the world?
1101 wrote:
SeattleSilver wrote:
But his version isn't part of the "whole story" unless he knows they were going for an arrest rather than a kidnapping. I wouldn't have a problem with him explaining the arrest angle if the FBI hadn't pointed out that after the group grabbed the Gov, they were going to take her to a remote Wisconsin location an conduct a trial. I'm quite sure that the Michigan law on citizen arrest for an active felony doesn't authorize a citizen trial.
This whole "arrest" angle is insane.
You cannot execute a citizen's arrest on a politician with whom you disagree or who makes you "angry" as that sheriff described. You can protest, vote, file a lawsuit . . . but you cannot arrest them because of their policies. That's batsh!t crazy
It is hard to believe that some on here are coming to the defense of the sheriff as if this notion of making an arrest is something other than insane.
Bingo.
I like agip as a poster but he seems overly keen to be viewed as the middle of road guy.
He occasionally gets somethings wrong, we all do, but this is one for sure.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Biden is up by 5% in Florida with all but one poll (of dozens) putting him ahead for weeks, the gap has been increasing during that period.
Polls are the least predictive data point for elections. You are ignoring primary results, district trends, economic indicators, voter registration, ground game and enthusiasm of the base- these are the best indicators for predicting elections. Follow these election experts as they have destroyed 538 pathetic predictions: @Peoples_Pundit and @Barnes_Law.
Trump is going to win next month with 313 EV, minimum. He is also going to flip a couple states from 2016.
but, but, but muh polls
Just because you say it doesn't make it true....
2008:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.htmlRCP Avg: Obama 7.6
Results: Obama 7.3
2012:
RCP Avg: Obama .7
Results: Obama 3.9
2016:
RCP Avg: Clinton 3.2
Results: Clinton 2.1
Now you are gonna scream "BUT THE STATE POLLS!!!!". The vast majority of state polling was correct within the margin of error. Polling has a standard error which is usually 3-4%. So in order to really have a forgone conclusion you need a consistent result outside the error.
2016:
PA:
RCP Avg: Clinton 1.9
Results: Trump .7
WI:
RCP Avg: Clinton 6.5
Results: Trump .7
MI:
RCP Avg: Clinton 3.4
Results: Trump .3
So WI was a polling abnormality in 2016. In 2012 the RCP Avg was Obama 4..2 and Results Obama 6.9. And I would say the wishy washy voters were on the fence with Clinton until the emails drop.....then they fell off the fence and polling wasn't able to capture the affect of that news.
Like now with Trump. If we had the election tomorrow Biden would have like 400 Electoral Votes, but we have enough time for the electorate to return to the baseline. That baseline is Biden 320-350.
Now.....I know facts and math is really hard for you people......but Trump is gonna lose and lose big.
I will even add this to my Runningart Challenge......
If Biden loses I leave Letsrun.
If Biden doesn't get at least 320 EC votes I will leave for a month. At this point if Biden doesn't get at least 320 it is a lost for this country.
Alan
NameStolenAgain wrote:
agip wrote:
yeah I agree..I don't think the sheriff was excusing the perps, he was just explaining what they might have been thinking. Trying to tell the full story.
A new report by Fox 17 has revealed that brothers — who have ties to militia groups — have also been seen with Barry County Sheriff Dar Leaf. At a rally protesting Gov. Whitmer’s stay-at-home order over the summer, William Null appeared on stage with Leaf, who was a guest speaker at the demonstration.
Yep they are buddies. I’d be willing to guess they even consulted with this fine sherif on their plot... confident it would be called an arrest and not kidnapping. Their only hope now is a trump pardon, and they may get it.
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
It's looking grim for Dementia Joe in FL. Voter registrations are trending bigly for Trump. Cankles had 63% for Miami-Dade County in 2016. Dementia Joe is in danger of falling below the 60% threshold- if that happens, FL will be called for Trump early on election night.
Biden is up by 5% in Florida with all but one poll (of dozens) putting him ahead for weeks, the gap has been increasing during that period.
Biff’s desperation has escalated to new dangerous levels. He just posted some new voter registration numbers showing some R “leads” by a couple thousand votes. There are still many more registered Dems and the polls are bigly in Biden’s favor. I still think FL
will be tough for Biden but it is very dumb to assume Trump is going to demolish him based on new voter registrations. Biff has no fkn clue if those people vote, if previously registered Rs will vote, and if they do whether they will
vote for trump.... that’s why we have polls to give a better indication of people intention to vote for one vs the other.
NameStolenAgain wrote:
The law and order president attacks the Governor after the terror plot was thwarted, not a word about the criminals:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-said-michigan-governor-has-hatred-in-her-heart-2020-10
Yeah I’ll trust the rapist and corrupt Miller
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Biden is up by 5% in Florida with all but one poll (of dozens) putting him ahead for weeks, the gap has been increasing during that period.
Polls are the least predictive data point for elections. You are ignoring primary results, district trends, economic indicators, voter registration, ground game and enthusiasm of the base- these are the best indicators for predicting elections. Follow these election experts as they have destroyed 538 pathetic predictions: @Peoples_Pundit and @Barnes_Law.
Trump is going to win next month with 313 EV, minimum. He is also going to flip a couple states from 2016.
but, but, but muh polls
Sure Biff - gotta love how a few months ago you were about the polls and betting odds, but suddenly you discovered those are bad indicators... I almost feel bad for you.. ok I lied, no I don’t.
formerly present wrote:
One "enthusiasm" factor that will be interesting to see play out: the postcards that Dems are handwriting to voters.
One of my former students is a Facebook friend and she posted that she's already received *three* postcards urging her to vote (which she definitely was going to do anyway). She lives in Ohio, and that may be part of it; but I've been told that multiple tens of millions of these cards have been sent across the country (apparently more than a million went to Florida just for registered Dems who were not yet signed up for Vote By Mail).
I know a couple people who have sent *thousands* of these cards (and they pay for the cards and the postage, which adds up fast--plus the time involved in writing each card by hand). We'll see whether the cards actually make a difference, but I haven't seen anything about GOPers sending similar cards to registered Republicans. So it's going to be interest to see what the outcome is.
If it looks like the cards might have tipped the balance in one or two close contests, the GOP may adopt the same practice in future.
I like their strategy of sending the cards at an opportune time to target the undecideds. I must have written about a 100 cards before I left for Europe and donated enough to have about 5k sent out by other participants.