agip,
I believe there was heavy sovereign wealth fund selling. However, if the market was trading on fundamentals it would not have rebounded from the bottom. As outlined previously the market is getting more overvalued with the rise in equity prices while earnings are falling. I don't buy that the "market is predicting" rising earnings, investors are "hoping" for rising earnings.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I don't buy that the "market is predicting" rising earnings, investors are "hoping" for rising earnings.
Igy
but what is your evidence for that?
coach d,
Hurry the fraud Schiif is on CNBC's Fast Money. Perhaps you can catch it on a replay.
Igy
agip,
As you will remember from our CFP studies the Efficient Market Hypothesis is just that-a theory. The belief that the market prices in all knowledge certainly did not work in 2000 or 2007.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
As you will remember from our CFP studies the Efficient Market Hypothesis is just that-a theory. The belief that the market prices in all knowledge certainly did not work in 2000 or 2007.
Igy
You appear to have no understanding of what the EFH means.
You also appear to have no understanding of what the word 'theory' means.
Yes I have no understanding of the theory of EFH.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
As you will remember from our CFP studies the Efficient Market Hypothesis is just that-a theory. The belief that the market prices in all knowledge certainly did not work in 2000 or 2007.
Igy
`
See Dr. Joseph Stiglitz's Nobel Prize for information asymmetry. Information is NOT distributed evenly, so there are ALWAYS imbalances to exploit, just as Stiglitz showed that government can improve the efficiency of the economy by improving access to information.
So it follows that as Warren Buffett showed in his paper "The superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville" (which you can find in the Appendix of Graham's "The Intelligent Investor") some managers have managed to outperform the market for extended periods (which, of course, is supposed to be impossible due to the efficient market theory).
And it also follows that mathematical types (engineering in my case) like me can find information imbalances to exploit. I mean, I don't even care about "expert opinions" or 90% of the statistics you and Agip argue about. I don't care that you think the market is heavily overvalued (as long as I can find stocks to buy yhat are not overvalued). All I care about are numbers and mathematical models that I can backtest so I can sell that sucker short when the trend reverses.
The market is most definitely NOT Pareto-optimal (just ask those people who bought subprime mortgage-backed securities in 2008).
coach d,
I by Stiglitz's analysis and I find little wrong with your approach. Valuation does matter and that is why the market continues to struggle. Also, the high end of your S&P 500 target seems a hill to steep to climb in my estimation. Best with your stock picks.
Igy
Wall Street was heading for another day of losses on Thursday, as a stronger dollar and slumping oil prices crimped the desire to invest ahead of the long Easter weekend.
The benchmarks were on track to break a five-week winning streak, with all of them down 0.6% on the week as of Wednesday's close.
A slump in oil prices after disappointing supply data hammered U.S. stocks lower in Wednesday's session further highlighting the strong correlation with oil prices that has persisted for the past several months.
A stronger dollar also worked against the stock markets, with the ICE Dollar Index rising for a fifth straight session and flirting with the highest level in more than a week. The greenback strength comes after upbeat comments from Federal Reserve members this week, which have rekindled speculation the central bank might soon raise interest rates again.
coach d wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:agip,
As you will remember from our CFP studies the Efficient Market Hypothesis is just that-a theory. The belief that the market prices in all knowledge certainly did not work in 2000 or 2007.
Igy
`
See Dr. Joseph Stiglitz's Nobel Prize for information asymmetry. Information is NOT distributed evenly, so there are ALWAYS imbalances to exploit, just as Stiglitz showed that government can improve the efficiency of the economy by improving access to information.
So it follows that as Warren Buffett showed in his paper "The superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville" (which you can find in the Appendix of Graham's "The Intelligent Investor") some managers have managed to outperform the market for extended periods (which, of course, is supposed to be impossible due to the efficient market theory).
And it also follows that mathematical types (engineering in my case) like me can find information imbalances to exploit. I mean, I don't even care about "expert opinions" or 90% of the statistics you and Agip argue about. I don't care that you think the market is heavily overvalued (as long as I can find stocks to buy yhat are not overvalued). All I care about are numbers and mathematical models that I can backtest so I can sell that sucker short when the trend reverses.
The market is most definitely NOT Pareto-optimal (just ask those people who bought subprime mortgage-backed securities in 2008).
And yet another individual whose own words betray a fundamental lack of understanding of the efficient market theory.
POTO,
Where am I wrong in my interpretation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis: "As you will remember from our CFP studies the Efficient Market Hypothesis is just that-a theory. The belief that the market prices in all knowledge certainly did not work in 2000 or 2007."
Igy
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=533#ixzz43q1IoWkb
is there just one pycho on this board? Two? Three? What possible fun is it for these people?
Life's a mystery.
Today's econ:
durable goods: nothing good. negatives across the board.
Jobless numbers: 4 wk number continues to trend lower .
PMI services: slightly better
Consumer confidence: stable
Kansas City mfgring: still in shrinking mode, but shrinking less than it has been shrinking. So there's that.
agip,
I guess it comes with posting on the internet.
I am running a seven mile tempo on the AlterG this afternoon. Saturday I am going for a hilly 8 miler in the foothills. This particular loop has four steep hill sections. After I am going to do a mile of strides on the track. So it will be a good test for me.
Enjoy your day off, weekend and time with the family....and a run or two.
Igy
Although you drive me insane, I do respect the sincerity of your posting.
FWIW, IMO there is only 1 psycho in this thread, who consistently talks to him- or herself.
DJIA cruising along at around 17.4k, down an insignificant bit halfway through the day's trading.
A good weekend to all, except the troll.
agip and Maserati,
My one friend calls me "wild man." I certainly have a different sense of humor and my distance training has been a bit extreme. My wife has managed to stay with me for almost forty-two years. So the insanity may be clinically benign.
Have good weekends and Easter.
Igy
Maserati wrote:
Although you drive me insane, I do respect the sincerity of your posting.
FWIW, IMO there is only 1 psycho in this thread, who consistently talks to him- or herself.
DJIA cruising along at around 17.4k, down an insignificant bit halfway through the day's trading.
A good weekend to all, except the troll.
you registered!
bravo
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I guess it comes with posting on the internet.
I am running a seven mile tempo on the AlterG this afternoon. Saturday I am going for a hilly 8 miler in the foothills. This particular loop has four steep hill sections. After I am going to do a mile of strides on the track. So it will be a good test for me.
Enjoy your day off, weekend and time with the family....and a run or two.
Igy
big miles - excellent. I suspect that means you are feeling good.
I did 8 x 1000 in some hills this week and I'll do a 5 mile tempo tonight. After all this talk about my shaking things up, I do the most boring workouts. Except they are in hills. Or at least what passes for hills where I am.
My spring racing season begins in earnest next week, on a rolling 10k course I race several times each year, so it will be a good benchmark. Then I'll do a flat fast 10k to see how fast I can go in an absolute sense.