agip,
Good idea on the unpredictable rest, I will have to give that a try as well.
Igloi never told you what was next. But if he said "spikes" you knew it was going to be hard. We trained at Santa Monica College and directly north of the track was a graveyard. One day a newbie, after coach announced "spikes" asked "what are we running coach." That was a no-no. He looked at the newbie and point to the graveyard "you will rest in peace....over there." Nothing but silence!
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sooner rather than later the optimistic story will fade and another leg down will begin.
And then it will reverse and move up again. That's the way of the market.
Big Dog,
Agreed. The question is whether that leg down is severe. It should be if earnings continue to decline.
Igy
Rock Scientist wrote:
Rocket Scientist wrote:Hey, I'm not the one who thought he could buy stops on mutual funds. It's not rocket science.
Underappreciated fact: Rocket science isn't exactly "rocket science". It's fairly trivial physics actually.
Ever studied any nonlinear control theory?
Engineer wrote:
Rock Scientist wrote:Underappreciated fact: Rocket science isn't exactly "rocket science". It's fairly trivial physics actually.
Ever studied any nonlinear control theory?
Yup.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Big Dog,
Agreed. The question is whether that leg down is severe. It should be if earnings continue to decline.
Igy
Well they've been declining for awhile now, but we're into our fifth consecutive positive week. What's up with that?
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Big Dog,
Agreed. The question is whether that leg down is severe. It should be if earnings continue to decline.
Igy
Well they've been declining for awhile now, but we're into our fifth consecutive positive week. What's up with that?
Igy's been right about earnigns and the market for a while now...but the question is what does he think are going to happen to earnings in 6 months? are they going to continue to decline? will they drop 50%? Will they finally stop falling in the 3Q like analysts say?
Igy thinks the Dow will fall below 13k before mid-September.
POTO, agip and Big Dog,
I stand by my outlandish 13,000 Dow target by September 13, 2016. Keep in mind that when S&P 500 earnings were as low as today the market was trading approximately 30% lower. Market action is being driven by short covering, momentum traders and retail investors afraid to be left behind. There is nothing in this rally that is fundamental, at least not at this point.
Igy
Well the oil market has come back to life. And last week was a good one for commodities that aren't gold. So, it's not all bad.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO, agip and Big Dog,
I stand by my outlandish 13,000 Dow target by September 13, 2016. Keep in mind that when S&P 500 earnings were as low as today the market was trading approximately 30% lower. Market action is being driven by short covering, momentum traders and retail investors afraid to be left behind. There is nothing in this rally that is fundamental, at least not at this point.
Igy
well the point is that analysts think earnings will start rebounding in 3Q and really rise in 4Q. Do you have a reason to disbelieve that? (not the specifics - I'm sure the analysts are overoptimistic)
Big Dog,
Oil has rebounded well, but is it the dollar or drop in inventories. I suppose the weakness in some companies will continue since profitability is at a much higher price. I remember two downturns during my coaching years in New Mexico and Texas. Economically the damage does seems to linger.
Igy
#ignoreigy
#dontfeedthetroll
#noonelikesyou
agip,
I am open to the thought that earnings could pick-up on a weaker dollar and rising commodities. It is more likely we hit a cyclical economic high and what we are seeing is the next phase. That phase may be characterized by less central bank influence. The economy should rise or fall on its own power again. We will all be better off over the long run. Suppression of interest rates is at best a short term benefit with unknown long term consequences.
Igy
Sally,
Butt out not talking to you.
Igy
#youjustdid
#moreigylies
#growapair
Sally,
I'm tempted, but no.....
Igy
GoI,
I've been going over recent posts in this thread. Generally I agree with you that the market is heading down in the coming months. But not sure why you are predicting 1300 S&P on a specific date. Its like you trying to be Muhammad Ali predicting the round of the ko? That scenario is a real possibility. But even if things get worst with corporate earnings I don't think you can under estimate central banks doing increasingly radical things to prop up markets.
#ignoreigy
#dontfeedthetroll
#igylies
U.S. stock futures on Tuesday pointed to a moderate drop at the open, with analysts saying deadly attacks in Belgium have spooked investors.
"U.S. markets look set for a lower open as risk-off sentiments look to cross the pond in the wake of more terrorist attacks in Europe," said Jasper Lawler, a CMC Markets analyst, in a note.
"Safe haven assets are rising quickly this morning in response to the two explosions in Brussels Airport," said Nour Al-Hammoury, chief market strategist at ADS Securities, in a note. "Gold, silver and the yen are all up."
Gold futures gained 0.7% on apparent haven demand after the attacks, while silver futures rose 0.8% and the dollar was down about 0.4% against Japan's currency.