NameStolenAgain wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
A ?poll reader to a ?pole transmission.
Enjoy your loss.
KAG2020
We'd better clarify this before the election. How many electoral votes is considered a landslide?
I would say 400 is a landslide. I do not expect Biden to win in a landslide. He will win big, but it will not be a landslide.
Flagpole wrote:
NameStolenAgain wrote:
We'd better clarify this before the election. How many electoral votes is considered a landslide?
I would say 400 is a landslide. I do not expect Biden to win in a landslide. He will win big, but it will not be a landslide.
This seems accurate. The last true landslide was 1988. Although, Clinton did beat Bush and Dole by 200+.
Alan
Somebody must have posted this already but Trump and his family conveniently arrived at the debate very late and did not get tested as had been agreed. I believe trump already knew he was or could be positive and wanted to hide it. Either that or he was hoping for them to refuse his participation so he could weasel out with an excuse.
Btw - Kamala should definitely bring her own plexiglass partition to the debate. Give the country the visual that the WH is made up of super spreaders who cannot be trusted, which is reality.
I think Dan Scavino has been tweeting for trump
Attending physician at Walter Reed:https://twitter.com/DrPhillipsMD/status/1312869454385229827
Dan Kahneman wrote:
agip wrote:
nate's up to 81% likely for Biden.
Highest yet.
The senate is at 63% likely for the Ds. That one was at 64% once. The NC problems might hur this one.
Trumpism could be thrown on the scrap heap in just a few weeks.
Note that Mitch has been nowhere near trump or trumpists these weeks. I don't think he was at the ACB spreader event. Mitch can read the winds. Just in case the R majority survives in the senate he's going to be on the non-trump faction. Or at least try to be. If the senate flips, EVERYONE is going to be on the non-trump faction. Except that moran kennedy from LA.
That's good to read, I was feeling so good before Trump's covid. He bombed the debate and Biden went up to 14% over Trump and raised a record amount of cash, people saw Trump unhinged, Republicans and former employees were turning on him, the tax expose exposed him for the fraud and cheat and the poor businessman that he is, initially the covid 19 diagnosis exposed him as a reckless idiot it was all good. But now I am worried.
This is the October surprise. I don't feel good about this. The whole conversation has changed and no one is talking about taxes, his being unhinged, or anger toward Trump. I am afraid he will come out of this as a hero, to a tremendous celebration from his base, and him saying he was right all along and we need to open everything up. Presidents always get a huge popularity boost after illness. I fear this might be a game changer.
I need more posts like this one from Agip to talk me down.
The sticky wicket in the 'catching covid will help trump' theory is that the key group he lost...will not be lured back by him recovering from the disease. Meaning seniors.
The great story that is only being half-told is that while seniors have been voting R for a long time now...they have flipped over to Dems for this election. And I think a good part of that is covid. Trump's mishandling of the disease has killed hundreds of thousands of mostly senior citizens. Oldsters feel that their lives are at risk under trumpism and they are really angry about it.
Trump getting covid won't get those people back - rather it will likely turn even more oldsters away from trump. And those people vote a lot. Esp in FL and OH.
Flagpole wrote:
UPDATE!
538:
Biden: 81% chance of victory
Trump: 19% chance of victory
Biden: 335 electoral votes
Trump: 203 electoral votes
Biden leads national popular vote by 7.2%
RealClearPolitics.com:
Biden has now added OH, IA, and GA to states he is leading in according to their polls. 538 only agrees with OH.
No tossup states map:
Biden: 375
Trump: 163
Favorability rating:
Biden: 2.4
Trump: -12.6
Biden leads Trump nationally by 8.1%
for the record. 538 has Biden up 8.0%, not 7.2%
The website has a weird glitch in that it's hard to get today's number.
Usually 'landslide' means a 10% win in the popular vote. But it's not a technical term.
Trollminator wrote:
I think Dan Scavino has been tweeting for trump
Herman Cain was tweeting while intubated and even after he passed on. It took several days for his team to add a note to his Twitter account that they were posting on his behalf. Certain politicians, like Cain, seem to believe it is okay for others make their Tweets.
To repeat:
"Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential 'drive-by' just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity."
--Dr. James P. Phillips, MD
Attending physician at Walter Reed
Flagpole wrote:
I would say 400 is a landslide. I do not expect Biden to win in a landslide. He will win big, but it will not be a landslide.
The path for Biden to get over 400 electoral votes would be to win Texas and Georgia (along with some more gettable Trump leaning states).
The path for Trump to get over 400 would be to win:
MN, VA, CO, NM, NV ...
That gets him to 349 and I can't see any other states he has a chance at.
Would need to win California or a New York/Illinois combo.
formerly present wrote:
To repeat:
"Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential 'drive-by' just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity."
--Dr. James P. Phillips, MD
Attending physician at Walter Reed
How are they going to get Trump back to the White House?
agip wrote:
Dan Kahneman wrote:
That's good to read, I was feeling so good before Trump's covid. He bombed the debate and Biden went up to 14% over Trump and raised a record amount of cash, people saw Trump unhinged, Republicans and former employees were turning on him, the tax expose exposed him for the fraud and cheat and the poor businessman that he is, initially the covid 19 diagnosis exposed him as a reckless idiot it was all good. But now I am worried.
This is the October surprise. I don't feel good about this. The whole conversation has changed and no one is talking about taxes, his being unhinged, or anger toward Trump. I am afraid he will come out of this as a hero, to a tremendous celebration from his base, and him saying he was right all along and we need to open everything up. Presidents always get a huge popularity boost after illness. I fear this might be a game changer.
I need more posts like this one from Agip to talk me down.
The sticky wicket in the 'catching covid will help trump' theory is that the key group he lost...will not be lured back by him recovering from the disease. Meaning seniors.
The great story that is only being half-told is that while seniors have been voting R for a long time now...they have flipped over to Dems for this election. And I think a good part of that is covid. Trump's mishandling of the disease has killed hundreds of thousands of mostly senior citizens. Oldsters feel that their lives are at risk under trumpism and they are really angry about it.
Trump getting covid won't get those people back - rather it will likely turn even more oldsters away from trump. And those people vote a lot. Esp in FL and OH.
+1 and Biff getting excited about new voter registration is not very meaningful beyond knowing there will be net more new REGISTERED R voters in certain swing states. They may not show up and obviously can still vote for Biden. Trump managed to campaign hard against himself and its paying off bigly, what a feat!
midvale wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
I think Dan Scavino has been tweeting for trump
Herman Cain was tweeting while intubated and even after he passed on. It took several days for his team to add a note to his Twitter account that they were posting on his behalf. Certain politicians, like Cain, seem to believe it is okay for others make their Tweets.
To be fair a lot of politicians and celebrities do this. This is only an issue for trump because he always tweets and now he's hospitalized and the WH is clearly trying to diminish the situation.
L L wrote:
formerly present wrote:
To repeat:
"Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential 'drive-by' just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity."
--Dr. James P. Phillips, MD
Attending physician at Walter Reed
How are they going to get Trump back to the White House?
There has to be a live feed. They might give him another super strong steroid shot just for him to be able to walk to Marine 1 and wave. Until we see footage it has to be assumed he's pretty sick and at WR still.
Trollminator wrote:
midvale wrote:
Herman Cain was tweeting while intubated and even after he passed on. It took several days for his team to add a note to his Twitter account that they were posting on his behalf. Certain politicians, like Cain, seem to believe it is okay for others make their Tweets.
To be fair a lot of politicians and celebrities do this. This is only an issue for trump because he always tweets and now he's hospitalized and the WH is clearly trying to diminish the situation.
LOL look at this string of tweets and tell me something is not off
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrumpTrollminator wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
To be fair a lot of politicians and celebrities do this. This is only an issue for trump because he always tweets and now he's hospitalized and the WH is clearly trying to diminish the situation.
LOL look at this string of tweets and tell me something is not off
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
Ivanka seems a likely culprit. Would Trump trust anyone else? The tone is like a woman being careful with the wording and avoiding trying to start sword fights with everyone.
Penna is up to 82% on 538. Highest yet.