Down goes the Dow

Monsoon,

I am not sure what you are saying here. But there is no such thing as limit or stop orders for mutual funds, you buy or sell on daily closing Net Asset Value (NAV).

Igy

Dow swings up. Erases 2000 point plunge.

Is positive for the year.

*,

There will never be a bad day or a bad market.

Dow all-time high and 52-week high 18,351, and 52-week low 15,370.

I say lower.

Igy

Igy how's the running going?

agip,

Good, I am thankful the wife prodded me to see a sports orthopedist. The improvement has been steady. I have some biomechanical issues, basically tight hip flexor on the right, with poor hamstring extension same side. So working with a PT who is very good and has an AlterG treadmill in the office. Up to three runs a week, two on the AlterG and one long run in the foothills. Biggest issue is dropping the weight, I am about 30 pounds over a good running weight and I really feel it on the hills.

How is your running? What kind of schedule are you running at this time of the year, mileage, tempo, intervals, etc.?

Igy

the inflation trade is on. pick your spots wisely

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

Good, I am thankful the wife prodded me to see a sports orthopedist. The improvement has been steady. I have some biomechanical issues, basically tight hip flexor on the right, with poor hamstring extension same side. So working with a PT who is very good and has an AlterG treadmill in the office. Up to three runs a week, two on the AlterG and one long run in the foothills. Biggest issue is dropping the weight, I am about 30 pounds over a good running weight and I really feel it on the hills.

How is your running? What kind of schedule are you running at this time of the year, mileage, tempo, intervals, etc.?

Igy

ok well every step is a step forward. Sounds like you just have to work out the imbalances and drop some pounds. It's all about momentum.

Well I don't want to jinx myself but I am having some of the best running of my life right now - I have been playing around with my training and it seems to be paying off.

I recently set a course record on a tough 5k course I run every year and my workouts have been better than ever.

My next races are back to back 10ks - April 2 and 9 - probably not the wisest plan, that, but they are both races I want to run.

Just riding the wave here and trying to realize that this is the time I have been waiting for.

As for my schedule...I typically run 45 per week on 6 days, but I'm trying to run 52/wk on 13 of 14 days through the end of May - My races this spring are long - 10k and half marathon - so I think I need some more volume. Plus the weather feels so good after the winter.

I do the classic Tu/Th workouts and Sat long run...I've been doing longer intervals lately. Mile or 2 mile reps on Tuesdays instead of 400s, 6 mile tempos rather than 3.5 miles on the Thursdays.

The twist is that I've been runnign more hills lately - I got tired of underperforming in the hills when racing so I've been working on improving that. I think it is making a material difference. I know you run in some serious hills so you probably get that benefit also.

agip,

Good thing here the foothills start at about 3,000 feet elevation, and if your are going for a run it is hard to avoid at least 500-1,000 feet over a six to ten mile run. At this point I am going for time rather than distance.

Sounds like you know what works for you. In regards to 10k and half marathon training, I had a lot of success with tempos with short rest period or tempo-long-tempo runs. For example 4-6 x mile tempo / 1 minute timed rest, or 2 miles tempo, 4 miles easy, 2 miles tempo.

We have some road races I would like to run in May and track in June. But much of that will depend on my progress. I have a good group of friends that I train with, I am the oldest and slowest so I have something to shoot for.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

. For example 4-6 x mile tempo / 1 minute timed rest, or 2 miles tempo, 4 miles easy, 2 miles tempo.

Igy

I forgot about that kind of workout - with the intermediate easy period - that would be perfect for me right now - maybe with the two-mile tempos in hills. I'll probably do that next week

agip,

What I like about that workout is having to gear back up after your legs have some miles on them. You can also do something more half marathon specific like 4 x mile tempo / 1 minute rest, 6 miles easy, 3 x mile tempo / 1 minute rest. As you know the more specific you can be to the race demands the better off you will be as long as you don't go over the edge.

My wife reminds me how I have violated that principle over the years. We lived at Lake Tahoe in 1975 and I was doing some training with Jeff Galloway. One week I hit 175 miles on three workouts a day; spent a lot of time in the shower. A month later for some reason, I just wasn't running that well.

Igy

Maserati wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Upper bound of the sucker range. Muppets "don't want to be left behind."

"Upper bound", lol Igy. The Dow has gone up 100 more points since that post.

It's now above 17.5k

I am about ready to put the 401k back in, but not quite.

It's now at almost 17.6k

Igy your upper bound must have a substantial uncertainty!

Just jerking your chain. I am half of the mind that the Fed and others will do WHATEVER IT TAKES to maintain the markets. I mean, what is the Fed chair doing talking about market performance in her presentation?

There is now not only a dual mandate, but arguably a triple mandate.

In truth it may all reduce to 1 mandate, that was never in fact originally mandated.

It's looking more and more as though you are either in, or you are out, and that if you are in you are golden, and that if you are out, you are fvcked.

They might NEED to have everybody in, so that their numbers going forward look less disastrous. Those who ARE NOT in will be effectively supporting those who ARE in, it is argued that such is already the case.

Igy, you might be viewing the markets from a perspective that has very little meaning in the modern era. It's not even a banking thing, because they make money whether things go up or down--it is a government thing. It is a power play. Governments can only get as much power as they are initially given, or as they are allowed to take. We have allowed, and continue to allow, the government to acquire increasingly greater power, resulting in the markets we see today.

How long will that trend continue? Do they need increasingly greater power to keep things going, or will the current amount suffice? I don't know, nor do I know at what point the relevant powers are taken from them. What I do know is that black markets around the world are absolutely huge, and that they are increasing, despite "efforts" to curb them.

The US represents an interesting balance, everybody just OK enough to feel as though they are in, even if in reality they are not in to any significantly beneficial extent.

Interesting times, from a sociological perspective.

Maserati,

My high target was 18,200 and low target 8,900. The low target seems extreme at this point, but less so when things are shaky as in August/September or January/February. Of course the unprecedented central bank policy influences the perception of less risk, but does not alter the reality of unsustainability of such policies. I am of the view that the global market struggles over the past year are directly related to the waning influence of central bank policy.

Igy

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Monsoon,

I am not sure what you are saying here. But there is no such thing as limit or stop orders for mutual funds,

Typo. I left out the word not.

Just pointing out that "rocket scientist" is as ignorant as he is obnoxious.

Hi, K5! Are you feeling butthurt with stocks soaring again?

Four positive weeks and now we've wiped out the early year losses the pessimists were salivating over. Will they ever learn?

Bigfoot,

The fact that S&P earnings have declined 18% from 9/30/2014 thru 12/31/2015 is realistic. During that time period the PE ratio has climbed from 20 to 23. To note that some investors are blind to that risk is anything but pessimistic. To take your cues to where this market is going simply by the fact that it bounced off a lower low only to achieve a lower high will prove to be a mistake. And if the market advances in the face of falling earnings, it only makes the inevitable retreat greater and more severe. Sorry but you optimism is misplaced in my view.

Igy

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